Blog CemeteryWhere's The Swing At?
November 21st 2007 10:54
The polls are almost all saying that the 'swing is on' - that the ALP are maintaining their significant lead in both the primary and TPP vote. This raises a few interesting points at the seat-by-seat level as every mainland state has moved to the Coalition at each of the last two federal elections. The point is this: a handful of seats have moved to Labor against the tide at recent federal elections which have seen the Coalition gain overall. Now with Labor expected to make large gains, will these movements be replicated in the 2007 poll, bringing about massive swings as overall movements are added to swings against the statewide movements? On the other hand will those seats which have swung heavily to the Coalition under the Howard government revert to their previous status.
There's more at stake here than just the 2007 election. Large swings to Labor in seats such as North Sydney, Higgins and Ryan would suggest a fundamental shift in Australian politics, with traditionally blue-blooded Liberal seats now marginal. This would be the ultimate revenge of the so-called 'Doctors Wives' and would push out a number of very high-profile Liberal politicians. The alternative is a swing that sweeps Labor to victory in seats such as Hughes, Dunkley and Forde. Big swings through these seats would suggest that the Howard Government was something of an aberration, winning the Coalition convincing victories in a tract of hitherto marginal seats which reverted back to Labor at the first sign of a big swing. The central political contest in the future would focus on winning these seemingly volatile seats.
The listing below shows how the contested seats in the Mainland states at the 2007 election fit into the following four categories. REBOUNDERS are seats most at risk if the so-called 'Howard Battlers' push back to Labor. Often these are seats which support incumbent governments at both levels and may see Rudd as a 'safe pair of hands'. SLIDERS are seats which have been drifting to Labor and will be most vulnerable to a swing if it follows previous elections. However these should be taken with caution as they are generally seats in which the state Liberal parties have stayed strong and may not move far for Labor in a tight election. STAYERS are Coalition-held marginal seats which have performed well for the Coalition at both state and federal level. These seats can be expected to withstand much of the expected swing to the ALP. Finally are the SWINGERS, seats which have performed well for Labor at both levels and which should move to Labor regardless of where the swing is strongest. There are also a number of seats which have decidedly patchy results but have stayed close to the state average.
NEW SOUTH WALES
REBOUNDERS
Banks, Lindsay, Hughes, Macarthur, Greenway
SLIDERS
Wentworth, North Sydney, Warringah, Berowra
STAYERS
Dobell, Robertson
DRIFTERS
Lowe, Richmond, Bennelong
HOLDING STEADY
Macquarie, Parramatta, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore
ENIGMAS
Cowper, Paterson, Page
VICTORIA
REBOUNDERS
Isaacs, Holt, La Trobe, McEwen
SLIDERS
Higgins, Dunkley, Kooyong, Menzies
STAYERS
Goldstein
DRIFTERS
Ballarat, Chisholm, Bruce, Corangamite
HOLDING STEADY
Deakin, Bendigo, Melbourne Ports
ENIGMAS
MacMillan, Gippsland
QUEENSLAND
REBOUNDERS
Rankin, Blair, Herbert, Bowman, Dickson, Forde, Leichhardt
SLIDERS
Fisher
STAYERS
Longman, Hinkler
DRIFTERS
Moreton, Ryan, Fairfax
HOLDING STEADY
Bonner, Petrie, Dawson
ENIGMAS
Flynn
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
REBOUNDERS
Makin
SLIDERS
Hindmarsh, Boothby
STAYERS
Wakefield
DRIFTERS
Adelaide, Sturt
HOLDING STEADY
Kingston
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
REBOUNDERS
Canning
SLIDERS
Kalgoorlie
STAYERS
Brand
DRIFTERS
Swan
HOLDING STEADY
Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling
Of course, any of these seats could work out differently due to issues specifically relevant to them, or to the strength of the candidates involved. However it will be worth keeping an eye on any trends within these groups on election night.
There's more at stake here than just the 2007 election. Large swings to Labor in seats such as North Sydney, Higgins and Ryan would suggest a fundamental shift in Australian politics, with traditionally blue-blooded Liberal seats now marginal. This would be the ultimate revenge of the so-called 'Doctors Wives' and would push out a number of very high-profile Liberal politicians. The alternative is a swing that sweeps Labor to victory in seats such as Hughes, Dunkley and Forde. Big swings through these seats would suggest that the Howard Government was something of an aberration, winning the Coalition convincing victories in a tract of hitherto marginal seats which reverted back to Labor at the first sign of a big swing. The central political contest in the future would focus on winning these seemingly volatile seats.
The listing below shows how the contested seats in the Mainland states at the 2007 election fit into the following four categories. REBOUNDERS are seats most at risk if the so-called 'Howard Battlers' push back to Labor. Often these are seats which support incumbent governments at both levels and may see Rudd as a 'safe pair of hands'. SLIDERS are seats which have been drifting to Labor and will be most vulnerable to a swing if it follows previous elections. However these should be taken with caution as they are generally seats in which the state Liberal parties have stayed strong and may not move far for Labor in a tight election. STAYERS are Coalition-held marginal seats which have performed well for the Coalition at both state and federal level. These seats can be expected to withstand much of the expected swing to the ALP. Finally are the SWINGERS, seats which have performed well for Labor at both levels and which should move to Labor regardless of where the swing is strongest. There are also a number of seats which have decidedly patchy results but have stayed close to the state average.
NEW SOUTH WALES
REBOUNDERS
Banks, Lindsay, Hughes, Macarthur, Greenway
SLIDERS
Wentworth, North Sydney, Warringah, Berowra
STAYERS
Dobell, Robertson
DRIFTERS
Lowe, Richmond, Bennelong
HOLDING STEADY
Macquarie, Parramatta, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore
ENIGMAS
Cowper, Paterson, Page
VICTORIA
REBOUNDERS
Isaacs, Holt, La Trobe, McEwen
SLIDERS
Higgins, Dunkley, Kooyong, Menzies
STAYERS
Goldstein
DRIFTERS
Ballarat, Chisholm, Bruce, Corangamite
HOLDING STEADY
Deakin, Bendigo, Melbourne Ports
ENIGMAS
MacMillan, Gippsland
QUEENSLAND
REBOUNDERS
Rankin, Blair, Herbert, Bowman, Dickson, Forde, Leichhardt
SLIDERS
Fisher
STAYERS
Longman, Hinkler
DRIFTERS
Moreton, Ryan, Fairfax
HOLDING STEADY
Bonner, Petrie, Dawson
ENIGMAS
Flynn
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
REBOUNDERS
Makin
SLIDERS
Hindmarsh, Boothby
STAYERS
Wakefield
DRIFTERS
Adelaide, Sturt
HOLDING STEADY
Kingston
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
REBOUNDERS
Canning
SLIDERS
Kalgoorlie
STAYERS
Brand
DRIFTERS
Swan
HOLDING STEADY
Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling
Of course, any of these seats could work out differently due to issues specifically relevant to them, or to the strength of the candidates involved. However it will be worth keeping an eye on any trends within these groups on election night.
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