Blog CemeteryWentworth
October 30th 2007 04:35
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With the possible exception of Bennelong, Wentworth looms as the most interesting seat in the upcoming federal election. Pitting the high-profile Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull against local mayor George Newhouse, the contest has also drawn in ex-Howard government advisor Geoffrey Cousins. Turnbull's margin may be underestimated by the candidacy of disendorsed Liberal MP Peter King in the 2004 poll but the seat has drifted to the ALP at recent elections and for the first time in its 107-year history Labor looks a serious chance.
Past Results
2004 marked the first time the ALP had moved their TPP vote in Wentworth within 3% of their NSW average, as they received a swing of 2.8% which halved the Coalition's margin. While the Liberal's TPP vote held up in their strongest areas around Vaucluse, the inner Sydney, Pacific and Sydney Harbour areas all swung by more than 3%.
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The ALP gained new majorities in four booths, winning all but two in the Pacific area of the seat, and every booth in the Inner Sydney area. In contrast, the Coalition won every booth along Sydney Harbour from Double Bay to Watsons Bay, polling over 75% at Vaucluse, Parsley Bay and Dover Heights. The swing to the ALP peaked above 7% at Barcom and Bondi Surf, with all but six booths swinging to the ALP.
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How much of this swing can be attributed to the candidacy of King? The ex-member polled well, gaining almost 18% of the primary vote, without seriously threatening to split the major parties, and the ALP managed to harvest almost 39% of his preferences. But while King's candidacy had some success in winning votes, it is highly questionable whether he transferred many Liberal votes to Labor.
This is largely because there is no correlation between his primary vote and the level of swing the ALP achieved across the seat. As the above map shows, King was strongest across the Northern booths which have always been the Coalition's stronghold in the seat. However the swing to Labor was smallest in this part of the seat, suggesting King's voters were either tactical Labor voters or supporters of King who still placed Turnbull before Labor candidate David Patch. By contrast, King struggled in the Southern parts of the seat which saw the ALP make some of their strongest gains.
While the differences between these two can be seen as caused by regional disparities rather than the result of King's campaign, the above graph shows that even within each region there was little sense of a correlation between King's vote and the swing to Labor. On the whole, the argument can almost be made King helped the Coalition, as the second best booth for King also being the best for the Coalition (Cooper Park), and the fourth-worst booth for King being the best for the ALP (Bondi Surf).
This leaves the primary effect from King would be from the transfer of his personal vote. This would be expected to be strongest across the North of the seat, especially in the Vaucluse booths which provided him with his greatest support. However the apparent lack of any real correlation between primary vote and swing to the ALP must question how large this effect would be.
So if the effect of King's campaign is limited, where does that leave Wentworth? Here it's basically a case of choose your own trend out of two that the statistics for Wentworth throw up. Firstly is the recent movement to Labor. This focuses on the diminishing difference between the state average and the TPP vote in Wentworth in the last two elections, which has seen the ALP gain almost 6% against the state average since 1998 and sees the seat within 1% of the state average, probably for the first time ever. Due to changing demographics, and a rejection of the Liberals social policies, this view would argue that Wentworth is inexorably shifting towards the ALP and it is only a matter of time before it will be consistently held by Labor.
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However longer-term results offer a challenge to this view. Until the 2004 election, each federal poll since 1993 had seen Wentworth swing the same way as the state as a whole, but to a much smaller extent. As the table below shows, Wentworth appeared to dampen down statewide swings while still following the direction. With each election showing the Coalition winning by between 2.5% and 6.5%, this leads to the position that Wentworth will fluctuate with the statewide average but will generally provide a higher TPP for the Liberals than the state average and will generally have a more stable Coalition vote.
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There is one factor supporting this view, and two against it. Recent state elections have seen the Coalition's vote hold up strongly, to the extent that even the 1999 and 2003 elections would have seen the Liberals win Wentworth despite a statewide average TPP vote of barely 44%. (The 2007 state poll did see the Liberals gain more in Wentworth than across the state, which disagrees with the stable Coalition vote thesis but agrees with the seat generally sitting above their state average).
Booth Information
On the other hand, the concept of a Coalition base anchoring the rest of the seat is contradicted by the recent swings in the seat. Since 1998, most of the seat has drifted to the ALP, with all bar one booth in the South Heads - the Liberals strongest area - drifting to Labor. The only area which has moved to the Coalition has been in the South of the seat, which drifted to the Liberals in 2001 before drifting back in 2004. Thus the Coalition's vote across the seat has been swinging at recent polls.
Secondly, the 2004 poll was significantly different to the pattern, with the seat moving sharply against the slight statewide swing to the Coalition. This swing was solid across almost all of the seat, seemingly independent of King's candidacy, and consistent with swings in affluent Liberal seats across the Harbour.
Falling inside the overall margin the ALP require for victory, Wentworth will be one of the 2007 election's most important seats. But with the divergent voting trends clashing, the 2007 election is also a very important one for Wentworth. The recent movement to Labor would suggest that they will poll above the state average in Wentworth in 2007, in all likelihood comfortably winning the seat. On the other hand, the long-term stability in Wentworth would suggest that the seat will withstand the expected overall swing and would see the Coalition hang on against all but the largest swing. But the movement to federal Labor in Wentworth looks real, and it would be a surprise to see the swing not continue. Turnbull can count on some benefit from the removal of King's candidacy, although as we saw above this appears to be minimal. A strong ALP performance should see Wentworth drift to Labor for the first time.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Wentworth if they achieve two of the following...
- Win the Bondi North booth (46.91% TPP in 2004)
- Gain votes at Diamond Bay (32.74% TPP in 2004) - Vaucluse may be the area where there may be an effect from King's candidacy.
- Gain 55% of the vote at Glenmore (52.99% TPP in 2004)
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