Blog CemeteryThe Cliffhangers
November 25th 2007 10:44
So we have a new government, with a sizable majority - although a little smaller than what I predicted earlier in the week. But I'll look at that in a later post.
Firstly though I wanted to go through the seats that are still too close to call. In total, pre-poll, postal and absentee votes tend to favour the Coalition, with incumbent members seeking re-election also favoured to some extent. This may be likely to see the Coalition take the lead in a couple of the seats. Of course we can look at how the non-booth votes have tended to fall at previous elections.
BENNELONG (Maxine McKew (ALP) leads by 2,439 votes with 79.09% counted; 1416 pre-polls counted - 51.77% to Lib)
The Liberals performed comparatively well in pre-poll votes, losing comparatively 0.4% of their vote according to the votes counted so far. In 2004 the Liberals increased their margin by almost 2,000 votes across all non-booth votes cast, including 1,300 in postal votes alone. However a repeat of this strong performance wouldn't be enough to save the ex-PM. Overall he needs to pick up almost 60% of these votes.
COWPER (Luke Hartsuyker (Nat) leads by 1,224 votes with 81.91% counted; 3887 pre-polls counted - 56.91% to Nat)
Hartsuyker is probably safe after gaining on the pre-poll votes, although he did suffer a swing of about 2.5% compared with 2004. In 2004 the non-booth votes broke to the Nationals marginally better than the ordinary votes. This would be enough for Hartsuyker to win by about 1%.
MACARTHUR (Pat Farmer (Lib) leads by 320 votes with 81.32% counted; 1680 pre-polls counted - 52.89% to Lib)
Macarthur is still a chance of maintaining the bellwether status it has held since 1949. In 2004 non-poll votes added 0.1% to Farmer's margin, which would be enough to give Farmer another term. However Labor are still within touch.
ROBERTSON (Belinda Neal (ALP) leads by 904 votes with 76.31% counted; 2141 pre-polls counted - 52.31% to Lib)
The Liberals were handed a lifeline on pre-poll votes, gaining comfortably more than the booth votes showed. If this trend continues they may be able to hang on to the seat. But it will be require a sharp increase from 2004.
LA TROBE (Rodney Cocks (ALP) leads by 378 votes with 77.45% counted; 2421 pre-polls counted - 50.39% to ALP)
Cocks came back from the dead on election night, and boosted his lead with an unlikely majority of pre-polls votes. If they can replicate the post election day vote from 2004 the Liberals would gain enough votes to squeeze to victory. The pre-polls counted so far don't look good though.
McEWEN (Rob Mitchell (ALP) leads by 315 votes with 76.33% counted; 2441 pre-polls counted - 55.06% to Lib)
Bailey performed very well in pre-polls and gained over half a percent in the 2004 election. If she gains that again this year it will be enough for her to win. If the pre-poll figures are representative of the overall figures she should be able to survive.
BOWMAN (Jason Young (ALP) leads by 223 votes with 80.20% counted; 1056 pre-polls counted - 55.87% to Lib)
The Liberals did well in pre-polls in 2004 and have started the same way in 2007. Based on 2004 results this will go right to the wire but Young should hang on for Labor.
DICKSON (Fiona McNamara (ALP) leads by 389 votes with 81.16% counted; 2173 pre-polls counted - 51.77% to Lib)
The Liberal's Peter Dutton gained a little in a good election for him in 2004, and has picked up a few votes on pre-polls. He will have to perform better in 2007 to overturn Labor's slight election-night majority.
HERBERT (George Colbran (ALP) leads by 460 votes with 80.99% counted; 1968 pre-polls counted; 51.17% to Lib)
The Liberal's lead on pre-polls is nothing like the gain they made in 2004, when Peter Lindsay performed well on post-election day counts. That would suggest that Labor will hang on.
SWAN (Kim Wilkie (ALP) leads by 39 votes with 77.35% counted; 1520 pre-polls counted - 51.71% to Lib)
Wilkie won by a razor-thin margin in 2004 and will have to perform slightly better in 2007 to hang on to the seat. It's unlikely that he will have enough of a buffer to win the seat.
STURT (Christopher Pyne (Lib) leads by 954 votes with 79.85% counted; 2616 pre-polls counted - 64.14% to Lib)
Pyne was behind for much of election night but managed a slight majority on the night before gaining a huge bunch of votes on the pre-poll count. It's unlikely that he will maintain such a majority of all the non-booth votes but it is probable that Labor will fall just short.
SOLOMON (Damian Hale (ALP) leads by 711 votes with 76.16% counted; 1636 pre-polls counted - 53.14% to CLP)
In a small electorate, Hale's lead was close to 1% on booth votes. While this should be enough, the seat always has a large number of postal votes which broke heavily to the CLP in 2004. But Hale should havng on.
THE WRAP-UP
Obviously Labor will have a comfortably majority regardless of how the cliffhangers fall. Labor should win Solomon, Herbert, Dickson, Bowman, La Trobe, Robertson and Bennelong. The Coalition will keep their leads in Sturt, Macarthur and Cowper, and overturn small Labor leads in Swan and McEwen. This would give Labor 87 seats to the Coalition's 61 - almost the complete opposite to the 2004 result.
Firstly though I wanted to go through the seats that are still too close to call. In total, pre-poll, postal and absentee votes tend to favour the Coalition, with incumbent members seeking re-election also favoured to some extent. This may be likely to see the Coalition take the lead in a couple of the seats. Of course we can look at how the non-booth votes have tended to fall at previous elections.
BENNELONG (Maxine McKew (ALP) leads by 2,439 votes with 79.09% counted; 1416 pre-polls counted - 51.77% to Lib)
The Liberals performed comparatively well in pre-poll votes, losing comparatively 0.4% of their vote according to the votes counted so far. In 2004 the Liberals increased their margin by almost 2,000 votes across all non-booth votes cast, including 1,300 in postal votes alone. However a repeat of this strong performance wouldn't be enough to save the ex-PM. Overall he needs to pick up almost 60% of these votes.
COWPER (Luke Hartsuyker (Nat) leads by 1,224 votes with 81.91% counted; 3887 pre-polls counted - 56.91% to Nat)
Hartsuyker is probably safe after gaining on the pre-poll votes, although he did suffer a swing of about 2.5% compared with 2004. In 2004 the non-booth votes broke to the Nationals marginally better than the ordinary votes. This would be enough for Hartsuyker to win by about 1%.
MACARTHUR (Pat Farmer (Lib) leads by 320 votes with 81.32% counted; 1680 pre-polls counted - 52.89% to Lib)
Macarthur is still a chance of maintaining the bellwether status it has held since 1949. In 2004 non-poll votes added 0.1% to Farmer's margin, which would be enough to give Farmer another term. However Labor are still within touch.
ROBERTSON (Belinda Neal (ALP) leads by 904 votes with 76.31% counted; 2141 pre-polls counted - 52.31% to Lib)
The Liberals were handed a lifeline on pre-poll votes, gaining comfortably more than the booth votes showed. If this trend continues they may be able to hang on to the seat. But it will be require a sharp increase from 2004.
LA TROBE (Rodney Cocks (ALP) leads by 378 votes with 77.45% counted; 2421 pre-polls counted - 50.39% to ALP)
Cocks came back from the dead on election night, and boosted his lead with an unlikely majority of pre-polls votes. If they can replicate the post election day vote from 2004 the Liberals would gain enough votes to squeeze to victory. The pre-polls counted so far don't look good though.
McEWEN (Rob Mitchell (ALP) leads by 315 votes with 76.33% counted; 2441 pre-polls counted - 55.06% to Lib)
Bailey performed very well in pre-polls and gained over half a percent in the 2004 election. If she gains that again this year it will be enough for her to win. If the pre-poll figures are representative of the overall figures she should be able to survive.
BOWMAN (Jason Young (ALP) leads by 223 votes with 80.20% counted; 1056 pre-polls counted - 55.87% to Lib)
The Liberals did well in pre-polls in 2004 and have started the same way in 2007. Based on 2004 results this will go right to the wire but Young should hang on for Labor.
DICKSON (Fiona McNamara (ALP) leads by 389 votes with 81.16% counted; 2173 pre-polls counted - 51.77% to Lib)
The Liberal's Peter Dutton gained a little in a good election for him in 2004, and has picked up a few votes on pre-polls. He will have to perform better in 2007 to overturn Labor's slight election-night majority.
HERBERT (George Colbran (ALP) leads by 460 votes with 80.99% counted; 1968 pre-polls counted; 51.17% to Lib)
The Liberal's lead on pre-polls is nothing like the gain they made in 2004, when Peter Lindsay performed well on post-election day counts. That would suggest that Labor will hang on.
SWAN (Kim Wilkie (ALP) leads by 39 votes with 77.35% counted; 1520 pre-polls counted - 51.71% to Lib)
Wilkie won by a razor-thin margin in 2004 and will have to perform slightly better in 2007 to hang on to the seat. It's unlikely that he will have enough of a buffer to win the seat.
STURT (Christopher Pyne (Lib) leads by 954 votes with 79.85% counted; 2616 pre-polls counted - 64.14% to Lib)
Pyne was behind for much of election night but managed a slight majority on the night before gaining a huge bunch of votes on the pre-poll count. It's unlikely that he will maintain such a majority of all the non-booth votes but it is probable that Labor will fall just short.
SOLOMON (Damian Hale (ALP) leads by 711 votes with 76.16% counted; 1636 pre-polls counted - 53.14% to CLP)
In a small electorate, Hale's lead was close to 1% on booth votes. While this should be enough, the seat always has a large number of postal votes which broke heavily to the CLP in 2004. But Hale should havng on.
THE WRAP-UP
Obviously Labor will have a comfortably majority regardless of how the cliffhangers fall. Labor should win Solomon, Herbert, Dickson, Bowman, La Trobe, Robertson and Bennelong. The Coalition will keep their leads in Sturt, Macarthur and Cowper, and overturn small Labor leads in Swan and McEwen. This would give Labor 87 seats to the Coalition's 61 - almost the complete opposite to the 2004 result.
| 58 |
| Vote |
Subscribe to this blog
