Blog CemeteryThe Big Preview, Pt 4
November 23rd 2007 21:58
I'll finish with the election's most pivotal state, Queensland. It's very hard to imagine Labor winning government without substantially increasing on their current tally of six seats in Queensland. They will need a good sized swing, as only two seats are within five per cent.
QUEENSLAND
SLEEPING ON THE COUCH
Safe Coalition Seats
Maranoa (Nat by 21.77%; LNP 1, ALP 15, OTH 61)
Groom (Lib by 17.77%; LNP 1, ALP 13, OTH 161)
Fadden (Lib by 16.25%; LNP 1, ALP 13, OTH 301)
Wide Bay (Lib by 12.46%; LNP 1.04 ALP 9.25, OTH 101)
Moncrieff (Lib by 19.19%; LNP 1.02, ALP 10, OTH 301)
Safe ALP Seats
Griffith (ALP by 8.59%; ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 101)
Lilley (ALP by 5.22%; ALP 1.01, LNP 11, OTH 301)
Oxley (ALP by 6.69%; ALP 1.01, LNP 13, OTH 61)
Brisbane (ALP 3.39%; ALP 1.03, LNP 10, OTH 501)
Capricornia (ALP by 4.47%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7.50, OTH 301)
Safe Independent Seats
Kennedy (Bob Katter; IND 1.00, ALP 19, LNP 29)
STIRRING IN THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
Fairfax (Lib by 12.37%; LNP 1.08, ALP 7, OTH 201) - Solidly Liberal seat but the kind that may be susceptible to a Labor swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 12
Fisher (Lib by 11.04%; LNP 1.18, ALP 9.00, OTH 8.50) - Did swing heavily to the ALP in 1998 and has been somewhat volatile, giving Labor an outside hope.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 11
McPherson (Lib by 14.06%; LNP 1.20, ALP 4.20, OTH 251) - Has been heavily backed for a seat with such a massive margin. That said the seat has a changing population and may be the type to swing to Labor. A rough chance.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 8
ALP Seats
Rankin (ALP by 2.21%; ALP 1.01, LNP 12, OTH 501) - The ALP's most marginal Queensland seat that due an unhelpful redistribution may be in play. But it has moved to Labor and with such a big swing to them expected they shouldn't be under any
threat.
COALITION'S CHANCES - 1 in 20
WORTH A LOOK
Coalition Seats
Dawson (Nat by 10.12; LNP 1.40, ALP 2.75, OTH 501) - The Nationals have been under pressure in Dawson because of the regional partnerships fiasco and the seat is said to be heavily targeted by the Your Rights at Work group. Has been moving to the coalition at recent elections but if it moves back could be a Labor hope.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 4
Hinkler (Nat by 8.15%; LNP 1.45, ALP 2.60, OTH 251) - Has been moving to the Coalition but may only need to match the statewide swing for Labor to be a chance. I wouldn't be surprised if it defies the swing somewhat though.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 3
WORTH A GOOD LOOK
Coalition Seats
Flynn (Nat by 8.39%; LNP 1.55, ALP 2.32, OTH 301) - The newly created seat looked safely Nationals before the rise of Labor under Rudd. They still must be favoured in an electorate which have moved to the Nationals of late but it will be close.
LABOR'S CHANCES - A little less than 2 in 5
Forde (Lib by 10.08%; LNP 1.42, ALP 2.80, OTH 81) - A genuine three-cornered contest, with news reports suggesting the Liberals have given up the seat for the Nationals' Hanjal Ban. Did move very heavily to the Coalition in 2004 so the margin may be inflated. If that's the case then the Coalition's in trouble.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 2 in 5
Longman (Lib by 6.50%; LNP 1.60, ALP 2.22, OTH 501) - Mal Brough's seat is definitely marginal in this election. However his rising profile, combined with the considerably movement he has achieved at the last two elections, may be enough for Longman to defy the swing.
[B]LABOR'S CHANCES - Just below 1 in 2
Leichhardt (Lib by 10.34%; LNP 1.75, ALP 2.00, OTH 126) - Another three-cornered contest that is arguably tighter than in Forde. Swung very heavily in 1996 and in 1998 so must be a big hope for Labor, especially with the popular local member retiring at the election. That could be a costly decision for the federal coalition.
LABOR'S CHANCES - A little better than 1 in 2
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Dickson (Lib by 9.24%; LNP 1.42, ALP 2.70, OTH 501) - Famously held and lost by Cheryl Kernot, but Labor made up a little ground in 2004. Would expect this to be the kind of seat that pushes back to Labor.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 5
Bowman (Lib by 8.85%; ALP 1.70, LNP 2.02, OTH 161) - Has been one of the Coalition's best performers in Queensland. If the movement to them is a genuine trend the Liberals may hang on. But they will need to beat the statewide average again.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 5
Petrie (Lib by 7.52%; ALP 1.80, LNP 1.93, OTH 501) - Another seat that has drifted to the Coalition in their good times. But looks the kind of seat that will flood back to Labor.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 5
Ryan (Lib by 10.59%; LNP 1.50, ALP 2.25, OTH 126) - Everybody's favourite 'roughie' for Labor, and with good reason. Has moved massively for Labor and the local issues tend to be going to Labor. Should be a solid gain.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 2 in 3
Herbert (Lib by 6.30%; ALP 1.53, LNP 2.50, OTH 51) - Townsville seat where the Coalition are under threat from interest rates and work choices, and the ALP are standing a strong candidate. Wouldn't expect it to withstand a strong statewide swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 4
Blair (Lib by 5.52%; ALP 1.13, LNP 5.25, OTH 201) - Massive swing away from Labor to Pauline Hanson in 1996, and they've been slowly regaining ground. Should sweep to victory here.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 4 in 5
Moreton (Lib by 2.94%; ALP 1.09, LNP 6.00, OTH 301) - Has been pretty volatile around the state wide swing. But if the swing to Labor is on in Queensland there's no way the Liberals can survive there with such a small margin.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 7 in 8
Bonner (Lib by 0.52%; ALP 1.04, LNP 9.00, OTH 501) - Extremely marginal seat for the Coalition and has been moving versus the swing to Labor. Almost a certainty that Labor will gain the seat.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 11 in 12
QUEENSLAND VERDICT
The most pivotal seat in the election, and the one which is going to most responsible for delivering government to Kevin Rudd. Labor will gain the Brisbane seats of Dickson, Bowman, Petrie, Ryan, Blair, Moreton and Bonner, while also gaining the North Queensland seats of Leichhardt and Herbert.
2004 RESULT: ALP 6, Liberal 17, National 5,Independent 1
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 15, Liberal 8,National 5,Independent 1
THE FINAL VERDICT
This leaves an overall prediction of Labor gaining 31 seats; 9 in NSW and Queensland, 5 in Victoria and SA, 2 in Tasmania and 1 in the NT. Labor would have a majority in all jurisdictions except for WA, and a parliamentary majority of 34.
2004 RESULT: ALP 60, Liberal 75, National 12, Independent 3
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 91, Liberal 46, National 11, Independent 2
QUEENSLAND
SLEEPING ON THE COUCH
Safe Coalition Seats
Maranoa (Nat by 21.77%; LNP 1, ALP 15, OTH 61)
Groom (Lib by 17.77%; LNP 1, ALP 13, OTH 161)
Fadden (Lib by 16.25%; LNP 1, ALP 13, OTH 301)
Wide Bay (Lib by 12.46%; LNP 1.04 ALP 9.25, OTH 101)
Moncrieff (Lib by 19.19%; LNP 1.02, ALP 10, OTH 301)
Safe ALP Seats
Griffith (ALP by 8.59%; ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 101)
Lilley (ALP by 5.22%; ALP 1.01, LNP 11, OTH 301)
Oxley (ALP by 6.69%; ALP 1.01, LNP 13, OTH 61)
Brisbane (ALP 3.39%; ALP 1.03, LNP 10, OTH 501)
Capricornia (ALP by 4.47%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7.50, OTH 301)
Safe Independent Seats
Kennedy (Bob Katter; IND 1.00, ALP 19, LNP 29)
STIRRING IN THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
Fairfax (Lib by 12.37%; LNP 1.08, ALP 7, OTH 201) - Solidly Liberal seat but the kind that may be susceptible to a Labor swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 12
Fisher (Lib by 11.04%; LNP 1.18, ALP 9.00, OTH 8.50) - Did swing heavily to the ALP in 1998 and has been somewhat volatile, giving Labor an outside hope.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 11
McPherson (Lib by 14.06%; LNP 1.20, ALP 4.20, OTH 251) - Has been heavily backed for a seat with such a massive margin. That said the seat has a changing population and may be the type to swing to Labor. A rough chance.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 8
ALP Seats
Rankin (ALP by 2.21%; ALP 1.01, LNP 12, OTH 501) - The ALP's most marginal Queensland seat that due an unhelpful redistribution may be in play. But it has moved to Labor and with such a big swing to them expected they shouldn't be under any
threat.
COALITION'S CHANCES - 1 in 20
WORTH A LOOK
Coalition Seats
Dawson (Nat by 10.12; LNP 1.40, ALP 2.75, OTH 501) - The Nationals have been under pressure in Dawson because of the regional partnerships fiasco and the seat is said to be heavily targeted by the Your Rights at Work group. Has been moving to the coalition at recent elections but if it moves back could be a Labor hope.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 4
Hinkler (Nat by 8.15%; LNP 1.45, ALP 2.60, OTH 251) - Has been moving to the Coalition but may only need to match the statewide swing for Labor to be a chance. I wouldn't be surprised if it defies the swing somewhat though.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 3
WORTH A GOOD LOOK
Coalition Seats
Flynn (Nat by 8.39%; LNP 1.55, ALP 2.32, OTH 301) - The newly created seat looked safely Nationals before the rise of Labor under Rudd. They still must be favoured in an electorate which have moved to the Nationals of late but it will be close.
LABOR'S CHANCES - A little less than 2 in 5
Forde (Lib by 10.08%; LNP 1.42, ALP 2.80, OTH 81) - A genuine three-cornered contest, with news reports suggesting the Liberals have given up the seat for the Nationals' Hanjal Ban. Did move very heavily to the Coalition in 2004 so the margin may be inflated. If that's the case then the Coalition's in trouble.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 2 in 5
Longman (Lib by 6.50%; LNP 1.60, ALP 2.22, OTH 501) - Mal Brough's seat is definitely marginal in this election. However his rising profile, combined with the considerably movement he has achieved at the last two elections, may be enough for Longman to defy the swing.
[B]LABOR'S CHANCES - Just below 1 in 2
Leichhardt (Lib by 10.34%; LNP 1.75, ALP 2.00, OTH 126) - Another three-cornered contest that is arguably tighter than in Forde. Swung very heavily in 1996 and in 1998 so must be a big hope for Labor, especially with the popular local member retiring at the election. That could be a costly decision for the federal coalition.
LABOR'S CHANCES - A little better than 1 in 2
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Dickson (Lib by 9.24%; LNP 1.42, ALP 2.70, OTH 501) - Famously held and lost by Cheryl Kernot, but Labor made up a little ground in 2004. Would expect this to be the kind of seat that pushes back to Labor.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 5
Bowman (Lib by 8.85%; ALP 1.70, LNP 2.02, OTH 161) - Has been one of the Coalition's best performers in Queensland. If the movement to them is a genuine trend the Liberals may hang on. But they will need to beat the statewide average again.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 5
Petrie (Lib by 7.52%; ALP 1.80, LNP 1.93, OTH 501) - Another seat that has drifted to the Coalition in their good times. But looks the kind of seat that will flood back to Labor.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 5
Ryan (Lib by 10.59%; LNP 1.50, ALP 2.25, OTH 126) - Everybody's favourite 'roughie' for Labor, and with good reason. Has moved massively for Labor and the local issues tend to be going to Labor. Should be a solid gain.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 2 in 3
Herbert (Lib by 6.30%; ALP 1.53, LNP 2.50, OTH 51) - Townsville seat where the Coalition are under threat from interest rates and work choices, and the ALP are standing a strong candidate. Wouldn't expect it to withstand a strong statewide swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 4
Blair (Lib by 5.52%; ALP 1.13, LNP 5.25, OTH 201) - Massive swing away from Labor to Pauline Hanson in 1996, and they've been slowly regaining ground. Should sweep to victory here.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 4 in 5
Moreton (Lib by 2.94%; ALP 1.09, LNP 6.00, OTH 301) - Has been pretty volatile around the state wide swing. But if the swing to Labor is on in Queensland there's no way the Liberals can survive there with such a small margin.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 7 in 8
Bonner (Lib by 0.52%; ALP 1.04, LNP 9.00, OTH 501) - Extremely marginal seat for the Coalition and has been moving versus the swing to Labor. Almost a certainty that Labor will gain the seat.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 11 in 12
QUEENSLAND VERDICT
The most pivotal seat in the election, and the one which is going to most responsible for delivering government to Kevin Rudd. Labor will gain the Brisbane seats of Dickson, Bowman, Petrie, Ryan, Blair, Moreton and Bonner, while also gaining the North Queensland seats of Leichhardt and Herbert.
2004 RESULT: ALP 6, Liberal 17, National 5,Independent 1
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 15, Liberal 8,National 5,Independent 1
THE FINAL VERDICT
This leaves an overall prediction of Labor gaining 31 seats; 9 in NSW and Queensland, 5 in Victoria and SA, 2 in Tasmania and 1 in the NT. Labor would have a majority in all jurisdictions except for WA, and a parliamentary majority of 34.
2004 RESULT: ALP 60, Liberal 75, National 12, Independent 3
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 91, Liberal 46, National 11, Independent 2
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