Blog CemeteryThe Big Preview, Pt 3
November 23rd 2007 10:12
Welcome to Part 3 of what is becoming an epic (if only in size, rather than predictive qualities, at this stage) preview of Saturday's election. So far I've covered New South Wales and the ACT in Part 1, and Victoria and Tasmania in Part 2. Now I'll look at the Western two-thirds of the country, starting with South Australia.
Since I wrote those first two sections last night, we've received five wildly divergent polls: Galaxy and Newspoll bringing the Coalition to within 4 points for the first time recorded this year, two AC Nielsen polls giving Labor a 14 point lead that would deliver them over 100 seats, and a Roy Morgan poll which basically split the middle. But despite the first polls putting the Coalition in touch all year, I have seen nothing over the last couple of weeks which suggests the Coalition would have gained so many votes in a few days. So I will plow on, based on my earlier thinking.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Safe Coalition Seat
Barker (Lib by 19.88%; LNP 1.01, ALP 13, OTH 61)
Safe ALP Seat
Port Adelaide (ALP by 12.91%; ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 161)
STIRRING IN THE CHAIR
Coalition Seats
Mayo (Lib by 13.59%; LNP 1.01, ALP 12, OTH 161) - The Foreign Minister has run into his fair share of high-profile opponents and manages to avoid that on this occasion. However the seat has moved to Labor at each of the last four elections and if there is a very big statewide swing he may not be completely safe.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 1 in 12
Grey (Lib by 13.82%; LNP 1.20, ALP 4.00, OTH 401) - Grey has been swinging heavily to the Coalition in recent years. However the long-serving member is retiring and the seat may be under threat if the ALP can add a premium to what is expected to be a hefty statewide swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 8
ALP Seats
Adelaide (ALP by 1.33%; ALP 1.03, LNP 9.00, OTH 501) - Was only won by the ALP in 2004 but has been drifting steadily to Labor. Should be one of the biggest movers in the election.
COALITION'S CHANCES - 1 in 16
Hindmarsh (ALP by 0.06%; ALP 1.03, LNP 9.00, OTH 201) - Labor's most marginal seat but has been following a similar trajectory to Adelaide. A possibility that it will drift back to the Coalition against the state average but it is under no real threat.
COALITION'S CHANCES - 1 in 14
WORTH A GOOD LOOK
Coalition Seats
Sturt (Lib by 7.08%; LNP 1.61, ALP 2.18; OTH 251) - Minister for Ageing Christopher Pyne has seen his position get progressively worse against the state wide average. Now, contesting against a strong candidate in an election where his seat is under threat to a uniform swing may result in his downfall.
LABOR'S CHANCES - better than 1 in 2
Boothby (Lib by 5.09%; LNP 1.39, ALP 2.75, OTH 301) - The ALP have made big gains at the last two elections, although gains against the trend are different to gains with them. That said, the state average should push Labor over the top, notwithstanding the trials and tribulations of their star candidate.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 5
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Kingston (Lib by 0.06%; ALP 1.05, LNP 8.00; OTH 501) - An unlikely Liberal gain in 2004 that will most likely revert back in 2004. However the nomination of an ex state MP for the Family First party may siphon a few votes back to the Coalition. At a stretch, the Liberals best chance of hanging onto one of their ultra marginals.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 9 in 10
Makin (Lib by 0.93%; ALP 1.07, LNP 6.75, OTH 501) - Swung heavily to Labor in 2007 and there is a chance there will be a correction on this. But with the Liberals standing a new candidate it won't be enough to withstand the overall swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 9 in 10
Wakefield (Lib by 0.67%; ALP 1.03%, LNP 9.00, OTH 501) - One of many outer-suburban seats to drift to the Coalition at past elections. Most likely to be swept away in the Labor swing, and quite heavily if the swing is focused in the mortgage-belt seats.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 9 in 10
SA VERDICT
Labor will almost definately win the three ultra-marginals; Kingston, Makin and Wakefield. They should also pick up Boothby and Sturt.
2004 RESULT: ALP 3, Liberal 8
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 8, Liberal 3
NORTHERN TERRITORY
STIRRING IN THE CHAIR
ALP Seat
Lingiari (ALP by 7.66%; ALP 1.03, LNP 11, OTH 41)
The intervention into indigenous communities may throw up a surprise in the central Australian seat. However the Coalition would have to make a big gain against the national swing to take the seat.
COALITION CHANCES - 1 in 12
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Coalition Seat
Solomon (CLP by 2.81%; ALP 1.54, LNP 2.35, OTH 251) - One of the hardest seats to pick. Has drifted to the ALP but because it isn't included in public polling it's almost impossible to call with any real accuracy. That said it would be a surprise to see the Coalition withstand a large swing with a 2.81% margin. Probably best to go with the overall swing and (gulp) the betting.
COALITION CHANCES - 1 in 3
NT VERDICT
Labor to gain Solomon, although no huge shock if it goes the other way.
2004 RESULT: ALP 1, CLP 1
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 2, CLP 0
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Curtin (Lib by 14.62%; LNP 1.00, ALP 13, OTH 301)
Pearce (Lib by 13.11%; LNP 1.03, ALP 9, OTH 151)
Tangney (Lib by 13.45%; LNP 1.06, ALP 11, OTH 26)
Moore (Lib by 10.83%; LNP 1.07, ALP 7, OTH 501)
ALP Safe Seats
Fremantle (ALP by 7.76%; ALP 1.01, LNP 17, OTH 29)
Perth (ALP by 6.73%; ALP 1.01, LNP 12, OTH 126)
STIRRING IN THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
Kalgoorlie (Lib by 6.30%; LNP 1.27, ALP 3.50, OTH 501) - The litmus test for the theory that WA's prosperity has made work choices popular in the West. Tough to generate any trends in such a large seat but the Coalition may gain votes.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 8
O'Connor (Lib by 15.69%; LNP 1.01, ALP 13, OTH 81) - Will definately stay with the Coalition, but Wilson Tuckey has been challenged strongly by the National candidate. Unlikely that 'Iron-Bar' will be removed though.
NATIONAL CHANCES - 1 in 6
Canning (Lib by 9.54%; LNP 1.30, ALP 3.25, OTH 501) - The margin here looks inflated by the 2004 result, and in any other state the ALP would be a serious chance. But in WA the margin should be enough.
LABOR CHANCES - 1 in 5
WORTH A LOOK
ALP Seats
Brand (ALP by 4.65%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7.25, OTH 501) - Brand is Kim Beazley's old seat, and his retirement will help the Coalition, (although not by as much as if he had been leader in 2004). Has drifted to the Liberals but wouldn't be surprised if these kinds of seats perform well for Labor.
COALITION CHANCES - 1 in 4
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
Stirling (Lib by 2.04%; LNP 1.65, ALP 2.12, OTH 501) - Has been inching to Labor of late by a little more than Hasluck, and has a high-profile and strong ALP candidate. Probably a little more unlikely to fall though.
LABOR'S CHANCES - Just under 1 in 2
Hasluck (Lib by 1.82%; ALP 1.45, LNP 2.60, OTH 301) - A Liberal gain in 2004, but has in fact been drifting to Labor against the state average. Probably their best chance in the west, although will be very tight.
LABOR CHANCES - Just better than 1 in 2
Labor Seats
Swan (ALP by 0.08%; ALP 1.25, LNP 3.65, OTH 301) - Labor only hold the seat by a whisker but they have been performing well there at recent polls. Should hang on pretty comfortably.
COALITION CHANCE - 2 in 5
Cowan (ALP by 0.78%; ALP 1.52, LNP 2.40, OTH 301) - With the retirement of the long-serving ALP member, Cowan is the Coalition's best chance of gaining a seat in the country. Moved to the Liberals in 2004 and may move back to Labor, but more likely it will fall with the loss of Edwards personal vote. Just.
COALITION CHANCES - Just better than 1 in 2
WA VERDICT
Looks to be the most even state. I expect the four marginals to break two-two, with the ALP gaining Hasluck but losing Cowan.
2004 RESULT: ALP 5, Liberal 10
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 5, Liberal 10
To Be Continued
Since I wrote those first two sections last night, we've received five wildly divergent polls: Galaxy and Newspoll bringing the Coalition to within 4 points for the first time recorded this year, two AC Nielsen polls giving Labor a 14 point lead that would deliver them over 100 seats, and a Roy Morgan poll which basically split the middle. But despite the first polls putting the Coalition in touch all year, I have seen nothing over the last couple of weeks which suggests the Coalition would have gained so many votes in a few days. So I will plow on, based on my earlier thinking.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Safe Coalition Seat
Barker (Lib by 19.88%; LNP 1.01, ALP 13, OTH 61)
Safe ALP Seat
Port Adelaide (ALP by 12.91%; ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 161)
STIRRING IN THE CHAIR
Coalition Seats
Mayo (Lib by 13.59%; LNP 1.01, ALP 12, OTH 161) - The Foreign Minister has run into his fair share of high-profile opponents and manages to avoid that on this occasion. However the seat has moved to Labor at each of the last four elections and if there is a very big statewide swing he may not be completely safe.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 1 in 12
Grey (Lib by 13.82%; LNP 1.20, ALP 4.00, OTH 401) - Grey has been swinging heavily to the Coalition in recent years. However the long-serving member is retiring and the seat may be under threat if the ALP can add a premium to what is expected to be a hefty statewide swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 8
ALP Seats
Adelaide (ALP by 1.33%; ALP 1.03, LNP 9.00, OTH 501) - Was only won by the ALP in 2004 but has been drifting steadily to Labor. Should be one of the biggest movers in the election.
COALITION'S CHANCES - 1 in 16
Hindmarsh (ALP by 0.06%; ALP 1.03, LNP 9.00, OTH 201) - Labor's most marginal seat but has been following a similar trajectory to Adelaide. A possibility that it will drift back to the Coalition against the state average but it is under no real threat.
COALITION'S CHANCES - 1 in 14
WORTH A GOOD LOOK
Coalition Seats
Sturt (Lib by 7.08%; LNP 1.61, ALP 2.18; OTH 251) - Minister for Ageing Christopher Pyne has seen his position get progressively worse against the state wide average. Now, contesting against a strong candidate in an election where his seat is under threat to a uniform swing may result in his downfall.
LABOR'S CHANCES - better than 1 in 2
Boothby (Lib by 5.09%; LNP 1.39, ALP 2.75, OTH 301) - The ALP have made big gains at the last two elections, although gains against the trend are different to gains with them. That said, the state average should push Labor over the top, notwithstanding the trials and tribulations of their star candidate.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 3 in 5
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Kingston (Lib by 0.06%; ALP 1.05, LNP 8.00; OTH 501) - An unlikely Liberal gain in 2004 that will most likely revert back in 2004. However the nomination of an ex state MP for the Family First party may siphon a few votes back to the Coalition. At a stretch, the Liberals best chance of hanging onto one of their ultra marginals.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 9 in 10
Makin (Lib by 0.93%; ALP 1.07, LNP 6.75, OTH 501) - Swung heavily to Labor in 2007 and there is a chance there will be a correction on this. But with the Liberals standing a new candidate it won't be enough to withstand the overall swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 9 in 10
Wakefield (Lib by 0.67%; ALP 1.03%, LNP 9.00, OTH 501) - One of many outer-suburban seats to drift to the Coalition at past elections. Most likely to be swept away in the Labor swing, and quite heavily if the swing is focused in the mortgage-belt seats.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 9 in 10
SA VERDICT
Labor will almost definately win the three ultra-marginals; Kingston, Makin and Wakefield. They should also pick up Boothby and Sturt.
2004 RESULT: ALP 3, Liberal 8
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 8, Liberal 3
NORTHERN TERRITORY
STIRRING IN THE CHAIR
ALP Seat
Lingiari (ALP by 7.66%; ALP 1.03, LNP 11, OTH 41)
The intervention into indigenous communities may throw up a surprise in the central Australian seat. However the Coalition would have to make a big gain against the national swing to take the seat.
COALITION CHANCES - 1 in 12
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Coalition Seat
Solomon (CLP by 2.81%; ALP 1.54, LNP 2.35, OTH 251) - One of the hardest seats to pick. Has drifted to the ALP but because it isn't included in public polling it's almost impossible to call with any real accuracy. That said it would be a surprise to see the Coalition withstand a large swing with a 2.81% margin. Probably best to go with the overall swing and (gulp) the betting.
COALITION CHANCES - 1 in 3
NT VERDICT
Labor to gain Solomon, although no huge shock if it goes the other way.
2004 RESULT: ALP 1, CLP 1
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 2, CLP 0
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Curtin (Lib by 14.62%; LNP 1.00, ALP 13, OTH 301)
Pearce (Lib by 13.11%; LNP 1.03, ALP 9, OTH 151)
Tangney (Lib by 13.45%; LNP 1.06, ALP 11, OTH 26)
Moore (Lib by 10.83%; LNP 1.07, ALP 7, OTH 501)
ALP Safe Seats
Fremantle (ALP by 7.76%; ALP 1.01, LNP 17, OTH 29)
Perth (ALP by 6.73%; ALP 1.01, LNP 12, OTH 126)
STIRRING IN THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
Kalgoorlie (Lib by 6.30%; LNP 1.27, ALP 3.50, OTH 501) - The litmus test for the theory that WA's prosperity has made work choices popular in the West. Tough to generate any trends in such a large seat but the Coalition may gain votes.
LABOR'S CHANCES - 1 in 8
O'Connor (Lib by 15.69%; LNP 1.01, ALP 13, OTH 81) - Will definately stay with the Coalition, but Wilson Tuckey has been challenged strongly by the National candidate. Unlikely that 'Iron-Bar' will be removed though.
NATIONAL CHANCES - 1 in 6
Canning (Lib by 9.54%; LNP 1.30, ALP 3.25, OTH 501) - The margin here looks inflated by the 2004 result, and in any other state the ALP would be a serious chance. But in WA the margin should be enough.
LABOR CHANCES - 1 in 5
WORTH A LOOK
ALP Seats
Brand (ALP by 4.65%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7.25, OTH 501) - Brand is Kim Beazley's old seat, and his retirement will help the Coalition, (although not by as much as if he had been leader in 2004). Has drifted to the Liberals but wouldn't be surprised if these kinds of seats perform well for Labor.
COALITION CHANCES - 1 in 4
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
Stirling (Lib by 2.04%; LNP 1.65, ALP 2.12, OTH 501) - Has been inching to Labor of late by a little more than Hasluck, and has a high-profile and strong ALP candidate. Probably a little more unlikely to fall though.
LABOR'S CHANCES - Just under 1 in 2
Hasluck (Lib by 1.82%; ALP 1.45, LNP 2.60, OTH 301) - A Liberal gain in 2004, but has in fact been drifting to Labor against the state average. Probably their best chance in the west, although will be very tight.
LABOR CHANCES - Just better than 1 in 2
Labor Seats
Swan (ALP by 0.08%; ALP 1.25, LNP 3.65, OTH 301) - Labor only hold the seat by a whisker but they have been performing well there at recent polls. Should hang on pretty comfortably.
COALITION CHANCE - 2 in 5
Cowan (ALP by 0.78%; ALP 1.52, LNP 2.40, OTH 301) - With the retirement of the long-serving ALP member, Cowan is the Coalition's best chance of gaining a seat in the country. Moved to the Liberals in 2004 and may move back to Labor, but more likely it will fall with the loss of Edwards personal vote. Just.
COALITION CHANCES - Just better than 1 in 2
WA VERDICT
Looks to be the most even state. I expect the four marginals to break two-two, with the ALP gaining Hasluck but losing Cowan.
2004 RESULT: ALP 5, Liberal 10
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 5, Liberal 10
To Be Continued
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