Blog CemeteryThe Big Preview, Pt 2
November 22nd 2007 12:56
The second part of the Election Preview will look at the South Eastern corner of the country, starting with Victoria.
VICTORIA
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Safe Coalition Seats
Mallee (Nat by 24.75%; LNP 1.00, ALP 15, OTH 51)
Indi (Lib by 16.29%; LNP 1.00, ALP 13, OTH 126)
Murray (Lib by 24.08%; LNP 1.00, ALP 17, OTH 41)
Goldstein (Lib by 9.93%; LNP 1.02, ALP 11, OTH 101)
Wannon (Lib by 12.37%; LNP 1.01, ALP 13, OTH 61)
Safe ALP Seats
Gellibrand (ALP by 14.95%; ALP 1.00, LNP 23, OTH 23)
Wills (ALP by 16.90%; ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 101)
Batman (ALP by 21.32%; ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 101)
Maribyrnong (ALP by 9.47%; ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 31)
Scullin (ALP by 14.79%; ALP 1.00, LNP 15, OTH 61)
Gorton (ALP by 14.81%; ALP 1.00, LNP 19, OTH 34)
Calwell (ALP by 8.19%; ALP 1.01, LNP 13, OTH 61)
Lalor (ALP by 8.97%; ALP 1.01, LNP 13, OTH 51)
Hotham (ALP by 7.89%; ALP 1.01, LNP 12, OTH 126)
Bruce (ALP by 3.48%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7.00, OTH 251)
Chisholm (ALP by 2.65%; ALP 1.05, LNP 8; OTH 251)
Jagajaga (ALP by 4.61%; ALP 1.03, LNP 10, OTH 101)
STIRRING IN THE CHAIR
Coalition Seats
Aston (Lib by 13.20%; LNP 1.03, ALP 9.00, OTH 251)
Just three years after almost falling at a by-election, Aston was the Coalition's safest seat in Melbourne in 2004. Very rough outside risk if the outer suburbs rebound back to Labor.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 14
Kooyong (Lib by 9.58%; LNP 1.05, ALP 8.00, OTH 301)
A bastion of the Liberals but has been drifting to Labor. If the swing is strongest in inner city Liberal seats it may run close with a big swing.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 12
Casey (Lib by 11.35%; LNP 1.08, ALP 6.75, OTH 101)
Similar to Aston but hasn't moved to the coalition quite as far, and has also voted strongly for the state ALP. Unlikely to fall but more likely to swing than Aston.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 10
ALP Seats
Ballarat (ALP by 2.23%; ALP 1.11, LNP 5.60, OTH 201)
Ballarat has moved to Labor after being a surprising gain for them in 2001. Has also improved for them at state level and should have a much more comfortable margin after the weekend.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12
Holt (ALP by 1.51; ALP 1.10, LNP 6.00, OTH 101)
Has been one of the biggest movers to the Coalition at recent elections. If that happens again the Liberals could be in a chance if the statewide swing is curtailed. But if any seat is vulnerable to a rebound to Labor it's Holt.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12
Isaacs (ALP by 1.51; ALP 1.14, LNP 5.PP, OTH 101)
Labor are hoping to insert a new member into a seat in which the Liberals have made good gains. Should gently drift back to Labor though.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 10
WORTH A LOOK
Coalition Seats
Menzies (Lib by 10.67%; LNP 1.08, ALP 8.00, OTH 34)
Should be a solid hold for the Liberals. But with Kevin Andrews connected to unpopular industrial relations and immigration policies, and high-profile candidate Phillip Nietschke running in the seat there is a chance for Labor.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 7
Dunkley (Lib by 9.38%; LNP 1.18, ALP 4.25, OTH 251)
Has been a good mover to the Liberals and hasn't exhibited the incumbency support of other outer suburban seats. May push back to Labor but this election may show it to be a genuine Liberal seat.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 4
Gippsland (Nat by 7.70%, LNP 1.15, ALP 4.50, OTH 251)
Has been erratic at recent federal elections and could swing anywhere around the state average. That brings the seat into play but I'd be surprised if Labor got up.
LABOR CHANCES: 2 in 7
ALP Seats
Melbourne Ports (ALP by 3.74%, ALP 1.07, LNP 7.50, OTH 67)
Often contradicts the statewide swing, which may help the Coalition. Can't see the seat moving 4% to the Coalition though.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 7
Bendigo (ALP by 0.96%, ALP 1.15, LNP 4.75, OTH 251)
Possibly the Coalition's best chance of gaining a seat in the Eastern states. Tends to contradict the statewide swing and did fall to the Liberals in 1972. That said, any Liberal win looks unlikely if the swing is on.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 5
Third Parties
Melbourne (ALP by 9.92% to Greens; ALP 1.01, OTH 17, LNP 29)
The Greens best chance of snaffling a seat in 2007. Will need to overtake the Liberals while also keeping Labor's vote under 50%. The first task looks doable in 2007 but the second may be a little beyond them.
GREENS CHANCES: 1 in 10
Corio (ALP by 5.64%; ALP 1.18, OTH 6.00, LNP 14)
Disendorsed ex-ALP MP Gavin O'Connor could be a chance in a provincial electorate he has represented for 14 years. However Labor will have to be favourite in an election where they are on the rise.
O'CONNOR'S CHANCES: 1 in 7
WORTH A GOOD LOOK
Coalition Seats
Deakin (Lib by 4.97%; ALP 1.80, LNP 1.90, OTH 251)
Victoria's most marginal Liberal seat, but tends to swing quite conservatively and may lag behind the swing. Labor may need to gain in excess of 6% to win it (although that is definitely on the cards)
LABOR'S CHANCES: a little better than 1 in 2
McMillan (Lib by 4.99%; LNP 1.77, ALP 1.97, OTH 141)
Has been electorally erratic, looking good for Labor at federal level but poor at state elections. Probably only need to match the state average to fall to Labor though.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 4 in 7
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
McEwen (Lib by 6.42; LNP 1.70, ALP 2.05, OTH 161)
Been a good performer for the Coalition, but is in an area which has voted very strongly for the state Labor party. Also has many mortgage-belt areas which could be very vulnerable to LAbor. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a big swing here.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 3 in 5
La Trobe (Lib by 5.83%; ALP 1.52, LNP 2.40, OTH 161)
Had been drifting to the Liberals but moved to Labor at last federal and state election. As with McEwen could move a long way to Labor, although would probably only need to match statewide swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 2 in 3
Corangamite (Lib by 5.32%; ALP 1.80; LNP 1.90, OTH 301)
I had thought that 2007 was an election too early for Corangamite, which has been drifting to Labor at both levels for demographic rather than political reasons. However the large swing that is expected suggests that 2007 is the right time.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 3 in 4
VICTORIAN VERDICT
There's every possibility that Labor could win government without gaining a seat over their 2004 total. However the polls suggest a big swing which brings a tract of seats into the equation. I would expect Labor to win McEwen, McMillan, Corangamite and La Trobe - all on the urban fringes of Melbourne - while just sneaking through in Deakin.
2004 RESULT: ALP 19, Liberal 16 , National 2
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 24, Liberal 11, National 2
TASMANIA
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Denison (ALP by 13.29%; ALP 1.01, LNP 19, IND 26)
Franklin (ALP by 7.59%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7.00, IND 67)
Lyons (ALP by 3.68%; ALP 1.09, IND 8.00, LNP 21)
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Bass (LNP by 2.63%; ALP 1.14, LNP 5.60, IND 41)
Has been affected more by the Gunns Pulp Mill issue, which has seen the Greens start to poll well. They are also not preferencing in the seat, which is a minus for Labor. They shouldn't have too many problems taking the seat though.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 3 in 4
Braddon (LNP by 1.13%, ALP 1.09, LNP 6.00, IND 251)
Has been the site of heavy duty pork-barrelling by the Government (all supported by Labor) but it would appear this has been in vain in terms of saving the seat.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 5 in 6
TASMANIAN VERDICT
Both marginal seats are vital in order for Labor to take government. In all likelihood Labor should gain both Bass and Braddon.
2004 RESULT: ALP 3, Liberal 2.
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 5, Liberal 0.
VICTORIA
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Safe Coalition Seats
Mallee (Nat by 24.75%; LNP 1.00, ALP 15, OTH 51)
Indi (Lib by 16.29%; LNP 1.00, ALP 13, OTH 126)
Murray (Lib by 24.08%; LNP 1.00, ALP 17, OTH 41)
Goldstein (Lib by 9.93%; LNP 1.02, ALP 11, OTH 101)
Wannon (Lib by 12.37%; LNP 1.01, ALP 13, OTH 61)
Safe ALP Seats
Gellibrand (ALP by 14.95%; ALP 1.00, LNP 23, OTH 23)
Wills (ALP by 16.90%; ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 101)
Batman (ALP by 21.32%; ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 101)
Maribyrnong (ALP by 9.47%; ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 31)
Scullin (ALP by 14.79%; ALP 1.00, LNP 15, OTH 61)
Gorton (ALP by 14.81%; ALP 1.00, LNP 19, OTH 34)
Calwell (ALP by 8.19%; ALP 1.01, LNP 13, OTH 61)
Lalor (ALP by 8.97%; ALP 1.01, LNP 13, OTH 51)
Hotham (ALP by 7.89%; ALP 1.01, LNP 12, OTH 126)
Bruce (ALP by 3.48%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7.00, OTH 251)
Chisholm (ALP by 2.65%; ALP 1.05, LNP 8; OTH 251)
Jagajaga (ALP by 4.61%; ALP 1.03, LNP 10, OTH 101)
STIRRING IN THE CHAIR
Coalition Seats
Aston (Lib by 13.20%; LNP 1.03, ALP 9.00, OTH 251)
Just three years after almost falling at a by-election, Aston was the Coalition's safest seat in Melbourne in 2004. Very rough outside risk if the outer suburbs rebound back to Labor.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 14
Kooyong (Lib by 9.58%; LNP 1.05, ALP 8.00, OTH 301)
A bastion of the Liberals but has been drifting to Labor. If the swing is strongest in inner city Liberal seats it may run close with a big swing.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 12
Casey (Lib by 11.35%; LNP 1.08, ALP 6.75, OTH 101)
Similar to Aston but hasn't moved to the coalition quite as far, and has also voted strongly for the state ALP. Unlikely to fall but more likely to swing than Aston.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 10
ALP Seats
Ballarat (ALP by 2.23%; ALP 1.11, LNP 5.60, OTH 201)
Ballarat has moved to Labor after being a surprising gain for them in 2001. Has also improved for them at state level and should have a much more comfortable margin after the weekend.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12
Holt (ALP by 1.51; ALP 1.10, LNP 6.00, OTH 101)
Has been one of the biggest movers to the Coalition at recent elections. If that happens again the Liberals could be in a chance if the statewide swing is curtailed. But if any seat is vulnerable to a rebound to Labor it's Holt.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12
Isaacs (ALP by 1.51; ALP 1.14, LNP 5.PP, OTH 101)
Labor are hoping to insert a new member into a seat in which the Liberals have made good gains. Should gently drift back to Labor though.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 10
WORTH A LOOK
Coalition Seats
Menzies (Lib by 10.67%; LNP 1.08, ALP 8.00, OTH 34)
Should be a solid hold for the Liberals. But with Kevin Andrews connected to unpopular industrial relations and immigration policies, and high-profile candidate Phillip Nietschke running in the seat there is a chance for Labor.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 7
Dunkley (Lib by 9.38%; LNP 1.18, ALP 4.25, OTH 251)
Has been a good mover to the Liberals and hasn't exhibited the incumbency support of other outer suburban seats. May push back to Labor but this election may show it to be a genuine Liberal seat.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 4
Gippsland (Nat by 7.70%, LNP 1.15, ALP 4.50, OTH 251)
Has been erratic at recent federal elections and could swing anywhere around the state average. That brings the seat into play but I'd be surprised if Labor got up.
LABOR CHANCES: 2 in 7
ALP Seats
Melbourne Ports (ALP by 3.74%, ALP 1.07, LNP 7.50, OTH 67)
Often contradicts the statewide swing, which may help the Coalition. Can't see the seat moving 4% to the Coalition though.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 7
Bendigo (ALP by 0.96%, ALP 1.15, LNP 4.75, OTH 251)
Possibly the Coalition's best chance of gaining a seat in the Eastern states. Tends to contradict the statewide swing and did fall to the Liberals in 1972. That said, any Liberal win looks unlikely if the swing is on.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 5
Third Parties
Melbourne (ALP by 9.92% to Greens; ALP 1.01, OTH 17, LNP 29)
The Greens best chance of snaffling a seat in 2007. Will need to overtake the Liberals while also keeping Labor's vote under 50%. The first task looks doable in 2007 but the second may be a little beyond them.
GREENS CHANCES: 1 in 10
Corio (ALP by 5.64%; ALP 1.18, OTH 6.00, LNP 14)
Disendorsed ex-ALP MP Gavin O'Connor could be a chance in a provincial electorate he has represented for 14 years. However Labor will have to be favourite in an election where they are on the rise.
O'CONNOR'S CHANCES: 1 in 7
WORTH A GOOD LOOK
Coalition Seats
Deakin (Lib by 4.97%; ALP 1.80, LNP 1.90, OTH 251)
Victoria's most marginal Liberal seat, but tends to swing quite conservatively and may lag behind the swing. Labor may need to gain in excess of 6% to win it (although that is definitely on the cards)
LABOR'S CHANCES: a little better than 1 in 2
McMillan (Lib by 4.99%; LNP 1.77, ALP 1.97, OTH 141)
Has been electorally erratic, looking good for Labor at federal level but poor at state elections. Probably only need to match the state average to fall to Labor though.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 4 in 7
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
McEwen (Lib by 6.42; LNP 1.70, ALP 2.05, OTH 161)
Been a good performer for the Coalition, but is in an area which has voted very strongly for the state Labor party. Also has many mortgage-belt areas which could be very vulnerable to LAbor. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a big swing here.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 3 in 5
La Trobe (Lib by 5.83%; ALP 1.52, LNP 2.40, OTH 161)
Had been drifting to the Liberals but moved to Labor at last federal and state election. As with McEwen could move a long way to Labor, although would probably only need to match statewide swing.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 2 in 3
Corangamite (Lib by 5.32%; ALP 1.80; LNP 1.90, OTH 301)
I had thought that 2007 was an election too early for Corangamite, which has been drifting to Labor at both levels for demographic rather than political reasons. However the large swing that is expected suggests that 2007 is the right time.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 3 in 4
VICTORIAN VERDICT
There's every possibility that Labor could win government without gaining a seat over their 2004 total. However the polls suggest a big swing which brings a tract of seats into the equation. I would expect Labor to win McEwen, McMillan, Corangamite and La Trobe - all on the urban fringes of Melbourne - while just sneaking through in Deakin.
2004 RESULT: ALP 19, Liberal 16 , National 2
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 24, Liberal 11, National 2
TASMANIA
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Denison (ALP by 13.29%; ALP 1.01, LNP 19, IND 26)
Franklin (ALP by 7.59%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7.00, IND 67)
Lyons (ALP by 3.68%; ALP 1.09, IND 8.00, LNP 21)
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Bass (LNP by 2.63%; ALP 1.14, LNP 5.60, IND 41)
Has been affected more by the Gunns Pulp Mill issue, which has seen the Greens start to poll well. They are also not preferencing in the seat, which is a minus for Labor. They shouldn't have too many problems taking the seat though.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 3 in 4
Braddon (LNP by 1.13%, ALP 1.09, LNP 6.00, IND 251)
Has been the site of heavy duty pork-barrelling by the Government (all supported by Labor) but it would appear this has been in vain in terms of saving the seat.
LABOR'S CHANCES: 5 in 6
TASMANIAN VERDICT
Both marginal seats are vital in order for Labor to take government. In all likelihood Labor should gain both Bass and Braddon.
2004 RESULT: ALP 3, Liberal 2.
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 5, Liberal 0.
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