Blog CemeteryThe Big Preview, Pt 1
November 22nd 2007 07:34
So we are finally near the end, which means it's time for an overall and seat-by-seat prediction for the 2007 election. With the opinion polls showing the ALP consistently gaining around 7% across the country I'll be focusing predominately on the Coalition seats that look most vulnerable. However where appropriate (e.g. WA) I'll also look at the crucial seats Labor needs to hang on to. The main question for Labor is whether they can gain the 16 seats necessary to gain government.
The tempting solution is to say that the election will be close; that the polls were narrow, or that the ALP will struggle to win seats from a Coalition fighting a 'seat-by-seat' campaign. But both points seem pretty week; the narrowing hasn't occurred thus far in the campaign, and for it to occur now would only suggest an error in the polling. Secondly, federal elections are rarely won like that, with only a handful of seats per election defying overall swings to a large extent. If the swing is the 7% that it currently is now some seats amongst the most marginal 16 - which all have a margin under 4.2% - could hold. But it won't be enough.
Of course, no swing is uniform; there are always seats that will shock on each election night.
Let's see if we can find them.
NEW SOUTH WALES
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
All of these seats shouldn't change hands in 2007. If you are seeing them on your TV screen on Saturday night, it means the swing is a long way from expected, an independent candidate has slipped under the wire, or something's wrong with Antony Green's computer.
Safe Coalition Seats
Riverina (Seat held by Nationals by 20.93%, Portland Bet Odds LNP 1.00, ALP 13, OTH 101)
Bradfield (Lib by 17.56%, LNP 1, ALP 19, OTH 34)
Farrer (Lib by 16.67%, LNP 1.00, ALP 17, OTH 41)
Mitchell (Lib by 20.81%, LNP 1, ALP 16, OTH 51)
Lyne (Nat by 13.42%, LNP 1.00, ALP 13, OTH 101)
MacKellar (Lib by 15.75%, LNP 1.00, ALP 14, OTH 67)
Hume (Nat by 13.09%, LNP 1.01, ALP 11, OTH 201)
Parkes (Nat by 17.79%, LNP 1.05, ALP 19, OTH 13)
Safe ALP Seats
Watson (ALP by 14.68%, ALP 1.00, LNP 15, OTH 67)
Blaxland (ALP by 15.35%, ALP 1.00, LNP 16, OTH 51)
Throsby (ALP by 13.75%, ALP 1.00, LNP 19, OTH 34)
Hunter (ALP by 11.14%, ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 67)
Fowler (ALP by 13.59%, ALP 1.00, LNP 17, OTH 41)
Chifley (ALP by 12.35%, ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 67)
Reid (ALP by 12.15%, ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 201)
Barton (ALP by 7.54%; ALP 1.02, LNP 10, OTH 141)
Newcastle (ALP by 9.27%, ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 61)
Kingsford Smith (ALP by 8.83%; ALP 1.01, LNP 12, OTH 101)
Shortland (ALP by 9.23%, ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 101)
Charlton (ALP by 8.54%; ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 101)
Werriwa (ALP by 6.01%; ALP 1.02, LNP 11, OTH 67)
Lowe (ALP by 2.91%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7, OTH 251)
Safe Independent Seats:
New England (Tony Windsor, OTH 1.00, LNP 19, ALP 31)
STIRRING IN THE CHAIR
Coalition Seats
Berowra (Lib by 12.6%; LNP 1.01, ALP 12, OTH 141) - Similar to North Sydney which has generated a lot of publicity as a possible Labor gain. A bigger margin for Labor to make up though.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 12
Greenway(Lib by 12.83%, LNP 1.36, ALP 3.50, OTH 201) - Was won by Labor in 1993 before being one of the big movers in 1996. Unlikely the swing will be big enough though.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 10
Warringah (Lib by 11.16%, LNP 1.02, ALP 12, OTH 61) - Once again has similarities to North Sydney, although Labor have not been as vigorous in their campaigning. Abbott has had a terrible campaign though and if a big statewide swing is combined with a further swing in the sliders he may be at risk.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 10
Gilmore (Lib by 9.37%, LNP 1.26, ALP 3.50, OTH 141) - Swung heavily to Labor in 2004 but this was mostly a response to 2001. Can probably be expected to follow the overall swing so Labor would need to gain 9 or 10% across the state.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 10
Cook (Lib by 13.33%, LNP 1.08, ALP 6.50, OTH 201) - Could be a sleeper on election night. The Liberals had massive preselection dramas and if the ALP gain a big swing in those rebounding seats they could be in with a show in Cook.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 5
LABOR SEATS
The state of the polls suggests the Coalition will struggle to make any gains at all in 2007 in NSW. They are no better than rough chances in a handful of Labor seats.
Prospect (ALP by 5.82%; ALP 1.02, LNP 11, OTH 101) - Moved heavily to the Coalition in 2004, but even if it moved as far against the statewide average again in 2007 the Coalition would need to gain votes across the state. That won't happen.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12.
Banks (ALP by 2.81%; ALP 1.03, LNP 10, OTH 81) - Has been drifting to Coalition but only slowly and looked primed for a rebound if that occurs.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12.
Richmond (ALP by 1.68%; ALP 1.08, LNP 6.50, OTH 141) - A rare ALP gain in 2004 and appears to be genuinely swinging to Labor.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12
Macquarie (ALP by 1.56%; ALP 1.16, LNP 4.60, OTH 201) - Only nominally Labor and generally moves in similar directions to the statewide average. Labor should be swept to a comfortable victory by the statewide swing.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 10
Minor Party
Calare (Notionally Nat by 12%, LNP 1.18, OTH 5.25, ALP 23) - Peter Andren's old seat, although was altered by redistribution. Independent Gavin Priestley was Andren's old campaign manager. Hard to get a read on the seat from afar but Andren was extremely popular, and if Priestley can get into second and the Nationals struggle he will be a real chance. Would be the story of the night if he won.
INDEPENDENT CHANCES: 1 in 4
Sydney (ALP by 17.69% to Lib; ALP 1.02, OTH 15, LNP 29) - The Greens have upped their vote by 16% since 1998 and would have gone very close at state level. However the ALP only need to increase their vote by 5% to win on primary's.
GREEN CHANCES: 1 in 12.
Cunningham (ALP by 11.67% to Lib; ALP 1.02, LNP 19, OTH 19) - Greens are half a chance with the ALP's primary vote barely 40% in 2004. Unlikely to improve on 2004 though, when Green candidate Michael Organ was the sitting member.
GREEN CHANCES: 1 in 33.
Grayndler (ALP by 21.31% to Lib; ALP 1.00, OTH 21, LNP 29) - Like Sydney, only less so. Would need the ALP's primary vote to fall - this is not likely in 2007.
GREEN CHANCES: 1 in 40.
WORTH A LOOK
Coalition Seats
Macarthur (Lib by 11.16%, LNP 1.33, ALP 3.10, OTH 251) - Has been a bellwether since 1949 although Pat Farmer has made it his own. Has been the star performer for the Liberals in outer Sydney in recent times, swinging by almost 10% since 1998. But it will be vulnerable if the swing is strongest in those kinds of seats.
LABOR CHANCES: 2 in 7
North Sydney (Lib by 10.03%, LNP 1.20, ALP 4, OTH 251) - Targeted for the first time by Labor after strong movement to Labor in 2004. 10% may be a touch too much to make up though.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 3
Hughes (Lib by 8.60%, LNP 1.40, ALP 2.75, OTH 251) - Has moved to the Liberals by almost 10% against the statewide average. However the move hasn't been replicated at state elections - is it permanent?
LABOR CHANCES: Just below 50-50
Robertson (Lib by 6.83%, ALP 1.55, LNP 2.32, OTH 201) - Has swung to the Coalition at both state and federal level. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Coalition perform comparatively well again, although that might not be enough with a big swing.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 2
WORTH A GOOD LOOK
Coalition Seats
Cowper (Nat by 6.79%; LNP 1.44, ALP 2.65, OTH 201) - One of three North Coast marginals which are prety hard to predict. Tends to jump around the state average a bit but a big swing should include it.
LABOR CHANCES: Just better than 50-50
Dobell (Lib by 4.93%; ALP 1.15, LNP 4.85, OTH 201) - Been moving to Howard and state Liberals, suggesting a deeper swing than other seats. Should move comparatively to the Government but probably not by enough to safe the seat.
LABOR CHANCES: 4 in 7
Paterson (Lib by 6.39%; LNP 1.56, ALP 2.30, OTH 201) - Similar to Cowper but with a slightly smaller margin. Also may be more likely to follow the state trend as its closer to Sydney.
LABOR CHANCES: 4 in 7
Page (Nat by 5.69%; ALP 1.52, LNP 2.38, OTH 501) - The third North Coast Coalition marginal, but the new National candidate doesn't benefit from incumbency and has a smaller margin to defend.
LABOR CHANCES: 3 in 5
Wentworth (Lib by 2.67%; LNP 1.50, ALP 2.50, OTH 61) - Turnbull may get some benefit from incumbency and a haphazard Labor campaign. However if the state swing is 6 or 7% it will be a big task to make up 4 or 5%.
LABOR CHANCES: 2 in 3
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
Eden-Monaro (Lib by 3.34%, ALP 1.14, LNP 5.00, OTH 251) - Eden-Monaro is highly likely to retain its bellwether status. I would expect to follow the statewide swing which, all the polls suggest, will be more than enough.
LABOR CHANCES: 3 in 4
Bennelong (Lib by 4.20%; LNP 1.57, ALP 2.25, OTH 251) - This may be the seat where the odds come unstuck. The polls show that the Liberals are going up against a solid statewide swing which, if replicated in Bennelong, will see the seat fall comfortably. The seat has also been drifting to the ALP at both state and federal levels, suggesting a significant and long-term shift. Even in a benign political climate it would be hard to see how the Liberals could save the seat. In the current one, I cannot fathom a way in which he can win. Only being the PM can save him.
LABOR CHANCES: Better than 3 in 4
LINDSAY (Lib by 3.01%; ALP 1.05, LNP 8.00, OTH 301) - Even before the pamphlet escapades the Liberals were in trouble here. Now the ALP can be expected to win the seat comfortably.
LABOR CHANCES: 4 in 5
Parramatta (Lib by 0.86%; ALP 1.08, LNP 6.75, OTH 251) - Parramatta was only notionally Liberal, and the swing to Labor should see them comfortably 'regain' it. That said I would be surprised if Labor makes significant gains over the state average.
LABOR CHANCES: 7 IN 8
NSW VERDICT
My prediction is that the ALP will gain a total of nine seats in NSW; Wentworth, Parramatta, Lindsay and Bennelong in Sydney; Page, Cowper and Paterson on the North Coast; and Dobell on the Central Coast, and Eden-Monaro in the South. They will just miss out in Robertson. The Nationals will gain Calare, although Priestley will go close.
2004 RESULT: ALP 21, Liberal 21 , National 5, Independent 2
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 30, Liberal 14, National 4, Independent 1
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Fraser (ALP by 13.32%, ALP 1.00, LNP 14.00, OTH 61)
Canberra (ALP by 9.91%; ALP 1.00, LNP 14.00, OTH 61)
ACT VERDICT
Two easy victories for Labor in the ACT, although reports that Labor will cut the public service may trim the margins slightly. What will be most interesting will be any swings to the Greens or against the Liberals, as they are expected to fight it out for the second senate spot.
2004 RESULT: ALP 2, Liberal 21
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 2, Liberal 0
The tempting solution is to say that the election will be close; that the polls were narrow, or that the ALP will struggle to win seats from a Coalition fighting a 'seat-by-seat' campaign. But both points seem pretty week; the narrowing hasn't occurred thus far in the campaign, and for it to occur now would only suggest an error in the polling. Secondly, federal elections are rarely won like that, with only a handful of seats per election defying overall swings to a large extent. If the swing is the 7% that it currently is now some seats amongst the most marginal 16 - which all have a margin under 4.2% - could hold. But it won't be enough.
Of course, no swing is uniform; there are always seats that will shock on each election night.
Let's see if we can find them.
NEW SOUTH WALES
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
All of these seats shouldn't change hands in 2007. If you are seeing them on your TV screen on Saturday night, it means the swing is a long way from expected, an independent candidate has slipped under the wire, or something's wrong with Antony Green's computer.
Safe Coalition Seats
Riverina (Seat held by Nationals by 20.93%, Portland Bet Odds LNP 1.00, ALP 13, OTH 101)
Bradfield (Lib by 17.56%, LNP 1, ALP 19, OTH 34)
Farrer (Lib by 16.67%, LNP 1.00, ALP 17, OTH 41)
Mitchell (Lib by 20.81%, LNP 1, ALP 16, OTH 51)
Lyne (Nat by 13.42%, LNP 1.00, ALP 13, OTH 101)
MacKellar (Lib by 15.75%, LNP 1.00, ALP 14, OTH 67)
Hume (Nat by 13.09%, LNP 1.01, ALP 11, OTH 201)
Parkes (Nat by 17.79%, LNP 1.05, ALP 19, OTH 13)
Safe ALP Seats
Watson (ALP by 14.68%, ALP 1.00, LNP 15, OTH 67)
Blaxland (ALP by 15.35%, ALP 1.00, LNP 16, OTH 51)
Throsby (ALP by 13.75%, ALP 1.00, LNP 19, OTH 34)
Hunter (ALP by 11.14%, ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 67)
Fowler (ALP by 13.59%, ALP 1.00, LNP 17, OTH 41)
Chifley (ALP by 12.35%, ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 67)
Reid (ALP by 12.15%, ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 201)
Barton (ALP by 7.54%; ALP 1.02, LNP 10, OTH 141)
Newcastle (ALP by 9.27%, ALP 1.00, LNP 14, OTH 61)
Kingsford Smith (ALP by 8.83%; ALP 1.01, LNP 12, OTH 101)
Shortland (ALP by 9.23%, ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 101)
Charlton (ALP by 8.54%; ALP 1.00, LNP 13, OTH 101)
Werriwa (ALP by 6.01%; ALP 1.02, LNP 11, OTH 67)
Lowe (ALP by 2.91%; ALP 1.07, LNP 7, OTH 251)
Safe Independent Seats:
New England (Tony Windsor, OTH 1.00, LNP 19, ALP 31)
STIRRING IN THE CHAIR
Coalition Seats
Berowra (Lib by 12.6%; LNP 1.01, ALP 12, OTH 141) - Similar to North Sydney which has generated a lot of publicity as a possible Labor gain. A bigger margin for Labor to make up though.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 12
Greenway(Lib by 12.83%, LNP 1.36, ALP 3.50, OTH 201) - Was won by Labor in 1993 before being one of the big movers in 1996. Unlikely the swing will be big enough though.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 10
Warringah (Lib by 11.16%, LNP 1.02, ALP 12, OTH 61) - Once again has similarities to North Sydney, although Labor have not been as vigorous in their campaigning. Abbott has had a terrible campaign though and if a big statewide swing is combined with a further swing in the sliders he may be at risk.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 10
Gilmore (Lib by 9.37%, LNP 1.26, ALP 3.50, OTH 141) - Swung heavily to Labor in 2004 but this was mostly a response to 2001. Can probably be expected to follow the overall swing so Labor would need to gain 9 or 10% across the state.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 10
Cook (Lib by 13.33%, LNP 1.08, ALP 6.50, OTH 201) - Could be a sleeper on election night. The Liberals had massive preselection dramas and if the ALP gain a big swing in those rebounding seats they could be in with a show in Cook.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 5
LABOR SEATS
The state of the polls suggests the Coalition will struggle to make any gains at all in 2007 in NSW. They are no better than rough chances in a handful of Labor seats.
Prospect (ALP by 5.82%; ALP 1.02, LNP 11, OTH 101) - Moved heavily to the Coalition in 2004, but even if it moved as far against the statewide average again in 2007 the Coalition would need to gain votes across the state. That won't happen.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12.
Banks (ALP by 2.81%; ALP 1.03, LNP 10, OTH 81) - Has been drifting to Coalition but only slowly and looked primed for a rebound if that occurs.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12.
Richmond (ALP by 1.68%; ALP 1.08, LNP 6.50, OTH 141) - A rare ALP gain in 2004 and appears to be genuinely swinging to Labor.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 12
Macquarie (ALP by 1.56%; ALP 1.16, LNP 4.60, OTH 201) - Only nominally Labor and generally moves in similar directions to the statewide average. Labor should be swept to a comfortable victory by the statewide swing.
COALITION CHANCES: 1 in 10
Minor Party
Calare (Notionally Nat by 12%, LNP 1.18, OTH 5.25, ALP 23) - Peter Andren's old seat, although was altered by redistribution. Independent Gavin Priestley was Andren's old campaign manager. Hard to get a read on the seat from afar but Andren was extremely popular, and if Priestley can get into second and the Nationals struggle he will be a real chance. Would be the story of the night if he won.
INDEPENDENT CHANCES: 1 in 4
Sydney (ALP by 17.69% to Lib; ALP 1.02, OTH 15, LNP 29) - The Greens have upped their vote by 16% since 1998 and would have gone very close at state level. However the ALP only need to increase their vote by 5% to win on primary's.
GREEN CHANCES: 1 in 12.
Cunningham (ALP by 11.67% to Lib; ALP 1.02, LNP 19, OTH 19) - Greens are half a chance with the ALP's primary vote barely 40% in 2004. Unlikely to improve on 2004 though, when Green candidate Michael Organ was the sitting member.
GREEN CHANCES: 1 in 33.
Grayndler (ALP by 21.31% to Lib; ALP 1.00, OTH 21, LNP 29) - Like Sydney, only less so. Would need the ALP's primary vote to fall - this is not likely in 2007.
GREEN CHANCES: 1 in 40.
WORTH A LOOK
Coalition Seats
Macarthur (Lib by 11.16%, LNP 1.33, ALP 3.10, OTH 251) - Has been a bellwether since 1949 although Pat Farmer has made it his own. Has been the star performer for the Liberals in outer Sydney in recent times, swinging by almost 10% since 1998. But it will be vulnerable if the swing is strongest in those kinds of seats.
LABOR CHANCES: 2 in 7
North Sydney (Lib by 10.03%, LNP 1.20, ALP 4, OTH 251) - Targeted for the first time by Labor after strong movement to Labor in 2004. 10% may be a touch too much to make up though.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 3
Hughes (Lib by 8.60%, LNP 1.40, ALP 2.75, OTH 251) - Has moved to the Liberals by almost 10% against the statewide average. However the move hasn't been replicated at state elections - is it permanent?
LABOR CHANCES: Just below 50-50
Robertson (Lib by 6.83%, ALP 1.55, LNP 2.32, OTH 201) - Has swung to the Coalition at both state and federal level. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Coalition perform comparatively well again, although that might not be enough with a big swing.
LABOR CHANCES: 1 in 2
WORTH A GOOD LOOK
Coalition Seats
Cowper (Nat by 6.79%; LNP 1.44, ALP 2.65, OTH 201) - One of three North Coast marginals which are prety hard to predict. Tends to jump around the state average a bit but a big swing should include it.
LABOR CHANCES: Just better than 50-50
Dobell (Lib by 4.93%; ALP 1.15, LNP 4.85, OTH 201) - Been moving to Howard and state Liberals, suggesting a deeper swing than other seats. Should move comparatively to the Government but probably not by enough to safe the seat.
LABOR CHANCES: 4 in 7
Paterson (Lib by 6.39%; LNP 1.56, ALP 2.30, OTH 201) - Similar to Cowper but with a slightly smaller margin. Also may be more likely to follow the state trend as its closer to Sydney.
LABOR CHANCES: 4 in 7
Page (Nat by 5.69%; ALP 1.52, LNP 2.38, OTH 501) - The third North Coast Coalition marginal, but the new National candidate doesn't benefit from incumbency and has a smaller margin to defend.
LABOR CHANCES: 3 in 5
Wentworth (Lib by 2.67%; LNP 1.50, ALP 2.50, OTH 61) - Turnbull may get some benefit from incumbency and a haphazard Labor campaign. However if the state swing is 6 or 7% it will be a big task to make up 4 or 5%.
LABOR CHANCES: 2 in 3
EDGE OF THE SEAT
Coalition Seats
Eden-Monaro (Lib by 3.34%, ALP 1.14, LNP 5.00, OTH 251) - Eden-Monaro is highly likely to retain its bellwether status. I would expect to follow the statewide swing which, all the polls suggest, will be more than enough.
LABOR CHANCES: 3 in 4
Bennelong (Lib by 4.20%; LNP 1.57, ALP 2.25, OTH 251) - This may be the seat where the odds come unstuck. The polls show that the Liberals are going up against a solid statewide swing which, if replicated in Bennelong, will see the seat fall comfortably. The seat has also been drifting to the ALP at both state and federal levels, suggesting a significant and long-term shift. Even in a benign political climate it would be hard to see how the Liberals could save the seat. In the current one, I cannot fathom a way in which he can win. Only being the PM can save him.
LABOR CHANCES: Better than 3 in 4
LINDSAY (Lib by 3.01%; ALP 1.05, LNP 8.00, OTH 301) - Even before the pamphlet escapades the Liberals were in trouble here. Now the ALP can be expected to win the seat comfortably.
LABOR CHANCES: 4 in 5
Parramatta (Lib by 0.86%; ALP 1.08, LNP 6.75, OTH 251) - Parramatta was only notionally Liberal, and the swing to Labor should see them comfortably 'regain' it. That said I would be surprised if Labor makes significant gains over the state average.
LABOR CHANCES: 7 IN 8
NSW VERDICT
My prediction is that the ALP will gain a total of nine seats in NSW; Wentworth, Parramatta, Lindsay and Bennelong in Sydney; Page, Cowper and Paterson on the North Coast; and Dobell on the Central Coast, and Eden-Monaro in the South. They will just miss out in Robertson. The Nationals will gain Calare, although Priestley will go close.
2004 RESULT: ALP 21, Liberal 21 , National 5, Independent 2
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 30, Liberal 14, National 4, Independent 1
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY
SNOOZING ON THE COUCH
Fraser (ALP by 13.32%, ALP 1.00, LNP 14.00, OTH 61)
Canberra (ALP by 9.91%; ALP 1.00, LNP 14.00, OTH 61)
ACT VERDICT
Two easy victories for Labor in the ACT, although reports that Labor will cut the public service may trim the margins slightly. What will be most interesting will be any swings to the Greens or against the Liberals, as they are expected to fight it out for the second senate spot.
2004 RESULT: ALP 2, Liberal 21
2007 PREDICTION: ALP 2, Liberal 0
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