Blog CemeterySturt
November 12th 2007 14:31
Booth Information
Taking in much of Adelaide’s North-Eastern suburbs, Sturt has been represented by newly promoted Minister for Ageing Christopher Pyne for the last fourteen years. While the ALP has only held the seat twice, and must overcome a margin in excess of 7% to win the seat, they have been gaining ground at recent elections and must be considered a real chance to take the seat.
Past Results
Pyne sustained a swing of over 1.5% in 2004, but was not seriously threatened and won the seat with most of his 8% margin intact. The strongest swing to the ALP occurred in the Southern half of the seat, with Marryatville moving by 11.2%, and Glenunga North, Burnside, Kensington Gardens all swinging by over 5%. Despite this, losses in the more marginal area in the seat’s North-West meant that the ALP carried two less booths than in 2001. Pyne polled strongest in the South of the seat, obtaining over 70% of the two party vote at Glenunga (73.08%), Beaumont (72.35%), Stonyfell (71.71%) and Glen Osmond (70.39%). While the ALP won ten of the booths contested, they could only poll higher than 53% at Hectorville North and Klemzig.
Booth Information
Sturt can easily be divided into a strongly Liberal voting region in the South of the seat, and a larger area in the seat’s North which has tended to provide slight majorities to the Liberals while voting below their state average. In the 2004 federal election it was the swing through the Southern booths which drove the ALP’s reasonable gain. However for Pyne to be challenged in 2007, it is more likely that the ALP are going to have gains in the Northern area.
Booth Information
The Southern area of the seat has moved considerably towards the ALP in recent elections, with a number of booths moving by over 10% since 1996, and the area as a whole moving by almost 4% in the 2004 election. However the recent state election results indicate that these gains may have pushed the ALP two party preferred vote towards its limit through the south of the seat. Whereas the 2004 poll saw the ALP gain just over 37% of the TPP through the area (8.47% below the party’s state average), their vote in the much stronger 2006 poll was 41.49%, which was close to 15% below their state average and the worst result by this measure recorded here. This was a swing of about three per cent below the state wide average. Obviously, state elections are fought over different issues and amongst different personalities as federal polls, but these results do indicate that the recent drift to the ALP in the south of the seat may be countered or even reversed.
Booth Information
However this does leave the ALP with opportunities in the North of the seat. While they went close in 1993 and 1998, Labor have failed to poll a majority of the TPP vote at any federal election across the North of the seat. This trend continued in the 2004 election, although they did make significant gains in the strongly Liberal North-East booths, and in around Vale Park, which outweighed slight swings through Hectorville and Gilles Plains. But the 2006 state election showed the potential for significant ALP majorities across the North. The ALP polled 14.2% stronger in 2006 than in 2004, and gained over 9% from the 2002 state election. Both of these figures would have been enough to give the ALP a very serious chance of winning the seat. Interestingly, the ALP’s biggest gains came in that area of the north in which they had traditionally polled weakest at the federal level, and they managed to win all 24 booths contested in the North (up from nine in the 2004 federal poll).
Booth Information
It will be in this large Northern area of the seat that the ALP will hope to gain the vote necessary to defeat Pyne. Realistically the ALP will need to maintain their vote in the South. But if they can do this, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them gain above the state average in the Northern parts of the seat. With South Australia purportedly leading the way for Labor in 2007 and Pyne contending with a high-profile local opponent, Sturt may be one of the election’s surprise packages.
What to Watch for
The ALP could win Sturt if…
- They maintain their vote in the South of the seat – 44% of the TPP vote at Tranmere (43.79% in 2004)
- Make big gains in the North – Win Athelstone (42.68% in 2004, but 57.23% in 2006)
| 66 |
| Vote |
