Blog CemeteryRyan
November 11th 2007 05:48
Booth Information
Stretching from the eastern suburbs of Brisbane out to sparsely populated areas at Lake Manchester and Mount Glorious, Ryan has been held by the Coalition for all but a few months of its 58 year history. However the seat has been drifting towards the ALP at recent elections and with Labor expected to make large gains in Brisbane on the back of Kevin Rudd's leadership, and the Goodna Bypass reportedly provoking a backlash in Ryan, the seat is being touted as a possible Labor gain in 2007.
Past Results
With the exception of the March 2001 by-election which saw the ALP's Leonie Short elected on the back of widespread disillusionment with the federal Liberal party, Ryan has been safely held by the Liberals as federal level at each election since 1993. Of the five general elections contested through this period, the ALP has only won one booth, at Toowong West, on two occasions. In 2004, the Liberals received a small swing through the seat, winning each of the seat's regions by over 8.5%. The Liberals achieved over 70% of the TPP vote at Brookfield and Pinjarra Hills, while the ALP came closest to carrying Indooroopilly, Auchenflower, Toowong and Upper Brookfield.
Booth Information
But while the Coalition has managed to keep their margin in Ryan above 10% at each of the elections contested, the seat has moved significantly to the ALP against the statewide average. Despite the small gain achieved in 2004, the Liberals vote in Ryan has fallen by 5.3% against the Queensland average since 1998 and is just 3.5% above it going into the 2007 election. Recent elections has seen Ryan hold relatively steady in TPP terms, while statewide figures have seen the Coalition's vote soar above 57%. They key in Ryan is whether the ALP's vote can continue its sharp climb against the state average in the face of the predicted surge in their vote in Queensland.
Booth Information
The drift to the ALP in Ryan has been general across the seat and has seen them improve their vote significantly at all but the 1998 election. It has been largest in the Eastern booths that are nearest to the centre of Brisbane, with Labor gaining over 4% across the large area of the seat since 1993. This compares with a statewide swing of 5.5% to the Coalition over the same period. Here the swing has been more pronounced since 1998, with the ALP improving by 3% overall and by around 7% against the state average. Toowong has moved by almost 4.5% to the ALP since 1998, with Indooroopilly, Kenmore and St Lucia all moving by around 3%, and all booths bar Chapel Hill moving to Labor over the period. Whereas the Eastern booths were the strongest overall area for the Coalition in 1993, they are now contending with the northern booths at The Gap for that title.
Booth Information
Across the rest of the seat the movement has been far more mixed. The southern booths at Jindalee moved strongly to the Coalition in the 2004 poll, with the coalition carrying all four booths with over 60% of the TPP in 2004. The three booths in The Gap have been remarkably steady since 1993, with the ALP's TPP vote plateauing at 41% at three of the five elections contested. Finally the outer booths from Moggill to Upper Brookfield in the seat's West have been the Coalition's strongest area since 1996, with their vote in the high-60's at each of the last three elections. However it has drifted to the ALP in both absolute and relative terms since 1998, with the Karana Downs and Upper Brookfield booths moving strongest.
The last three state elections has seen the ALP win Ryan, although by decreasing margins. Overall the results have been close to the federal trend, with the ALP improving from around 6% below the statewide average to around 3% in both 2004 and 2006. However their vote has been stronger in quite different areas. Whereas the federal vote has improved furthest in the Eastern booths and fallen in Jindalee, state elections have seen Jindalee voters give the ALP their biggest majority, although this has fallen at each poll. By contrast, the Eastern booths drifted back to the Coalition in 2004 and has stayed comparatively strong for the Coalition. The combination of a large proportion of exhausted votes in Queensland, combined with the marked divergence between the TPP vote at state and federal level means that any comparison of state and federal results has to be taken with a grain of salt. However these results give us two, slightly conflicting trends. One is that the seat appears to be performing relatively uniform across the two spheres and can be expected to stay around 3% below the ALP's state average at both high and low levels of ALP support. The second is to suggest that the recent trends across the seat may be reversed if the ALP makes large gains. This augurs well for the ALP in Jindalee, but not necessary in the seat's East.
Booth Information
The problem for the ALP is the divergence in recent trends through the seat. In a seat where they need to gain over 10% to win they will need to make significant gains in the ALP-trending booths in the East and the Liberal-trending booths in the South. Disapproval of the proposed Goodna bypass may help by being a gelling factor across the seat. However the likelihood is that their consistent gains in the East against the statewide average will be slowed. Both federal and state results have the seat polling around 3% above the state average for the Coalition. Notwithstanding any local issues affecting the vote, this would suggest the ALP would need to gain 10% across the state to win the seat. I would expect the seat to fall in the case of a landslide in Queensland for Labor, but I don't think it will jump any other seats if the swing is any smaller.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Ryan if...
- They can win the Indooroopilly West booth (41.88% TPP in 2004), AND
- They gain 10% at Jamboree Heights (37.17% TPP in 2004)
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