Blog CemeteryRobertson
November 12th 2007 13:59
Booth Information
Incorporating the southern half of NSW's Central Coast, and centred on the cities of Woy Woy, Terrigal and Gosford, Robertson was one of eleven seats (on current boundaries) captured by the Coalition in the 1996 landslide. While the Coalition have improved steadily at recent elections the seat is one the ALP will be hoping to regain.
Past Results
While it was the 1996 election in which the Coalition snatched the seat from Labor, the 1998 poll was arguably more significant. In an election where the ALP gained almost 5% across the state to regain a majority of TPP votes, their gain in Robertson was limited to just 1.5%. This saw the seat stay in Coalition hands in an election where the ALP gained five seats across the state. Since then the Coalition's premium of around 5% above the statewide average in Robertson has seen them comfortably hold the seat and has seen their margin almost reach 7% at each of the last two federal elections. Overall since 1993, the seat has been the 5th strongest in NSW for the Coalition, although most of the major gains were made at in 1996 and 1998.
Booth Information
All areas except for the small inland booths have swung by more than 10% since 1993, with the swing strongest in the Woy Woy Area, closest to Sydney, which has swung by 14% since 1993 and by almost 7% since 1998. In total the ALP won 33 booths in the 1993 election, including all but two in the Gosford area, all but three on the North Coast and all but two in the Woy Woy Area. In 2004 they won just five across the seat, polling over 55% at no booths and carrying just one booth which took in 1000 voters.
Booth Information
Robertson is clearly in range for the ALP is they are able to combine the expected overall swing with a return of some of the votes lost in 1993 and 1998 (compared with the state average). However there are two potential potholes to their chances here. The seat has been largely steady since 1998, suggesting Liberal support may be stronger and more 'rusted on' than in other targeted seats. Further, the swing to the Coalition at the federal level has been largely mirrored at the state level, suggesting this may be a more permanent shift than temporary backing of the Coalition.
As mentioned before, 1998 was the pivotal year in Robertson; delivering the Coalition a large swing in statewide terms which has enabled MP Jim Lloyd to push his margin to almost 7% at each of the last two elections. Thus the gosford and North Coast regions have actually moved to the Coalition by less than the state average since 1998, having achieve large swings at each of the previous two elections. This means that any correction of the swings from 2001 or 2004 will fail to induce any above average swings in Robertson.
The one area of the seat that has moved strongly to the federal government since 1998 has been the Woy Woy area in the seat's South. This suggests that it may be the most liable to a large swing which could sweep Labor to victory in the seat. However here the federal swing has been mirrored by a swing to the Liberals at state level, with the area as a whole moving by almost 7% across the last two state elections. That the swing has been gradual (though still significant) and matched at federal level does suggest the Coalition may have found a higher level of permanent support across this part of the seat. What it definately proves is that the Woy Woy section of the seat will be pivotal in 2007. Overall across the seat the Coalition's vote has held up well at the state level, with the seat one of three seats which the Coalition would have gained had the 2007 state election been fought on federal boundaries.
Booth Information
Having held the seat when last in power, it is easy to see why the ALP would see Robertson as a potential gain. However election figures give a strong indication that a larger trend is going on here than a mere swing to an incumbent government. If this is the case the ALP may struggle to do more than match the statewide average. Robertson may fall in an ALP landslide, but if the Coalition hold onto government then it will probably be safe.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Robertson if...
- They make solid gains in the Umina/Woy Woy area - 55% at Ettalong (48.85% TPP in 2004) and at Woy Woy (49.98%).
- They gain Niagara Park (44.55% TPP in 2004)
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