Blog CemeteryRichmond
October 22nd 2007 01:20
Booth Information
Situated on the far North Coast of NSW and taking in the growing area from Tweed Heads to Byron Bay, Richmond was one of only two gains made by the ALP in the state in 2004. Labor's margin has been increased slightly by the 2006 redistribution but as the seat was the only seat held by the ALP federally which would have been won by the Coalition in the 2007 state election it can't be taken for granted.
Detailed Results
The 2004 poll saw the ALP gain against the state average in Richmond for a third straight poll. This has largely been driven by consistent drift towards Labor across the Southern coastal regions of the seat. The ALP's TPP vote in the area around Byron Bay has moved from being around 1% below the state average in 1993 to over 13% over in 2004. Much of this movement tends to have been the significant Green vote in the area, which peaked at 32% in Byron Bay and was almost 23% across the Byron coastal area in the 2004 election. This has proven to be important because the Greens vote has come at the expense of the Nationals as much as Labor, but their preferences are predominately given to the ALP. This movement has been mirrored in the smaller rural booths, with the booths at Ninbin, Rosebank, Jiggi and Wilsons Creek all swinging by over 20% since 1993. All of these booths were won on primary votes by the Greens.
Booth Information
However at state election level the Byron area has been a bastion of Coalition support, with the Nationals performing polling in excess of 10% above the state average at each of the last three elections and receiving almost 20% more of the TPP vote in the 2007 state poll than in the 2004 federal election. This has been most significant in Byron Bay itself, with the central Byron Bay booth giving the Coalition over 30% more votes in 2007. The reasons for this are difficult to ascertain. At first glance it appears to be the result of green voters under optional voting in state elections exhausting their votes. But while the level of exhausted votes are above average in the Byron region the biggest difference between state and federal results is the large shift from Labor to National at state level. This appears to be a long-standing shift rather than a one-off in the 2007 state poll and therefore may not have a big effect on the federal election. However the possibility that the federal results for the Byron region may mimic the state election does mean that the Byron booths will need to be monitored on the night.
Booth Information
More significant in size but more consistent in voting tendencies is the area around Tweed Heads and Murwillumbah in the north of the seat. This area moved heavily to the Nationals in the 1996 landslide (12.5% against a statewide swing of under 7%), delivering the seat to the Coalition. Since then it has drifted back to the statewide average and while it has still delivered a Coalition majority at each of the three elections this has not been enough to (on present boundaries) overcome the increasing Labor vote in the South of the seat and has seen the ALP gain slight overall majorities. The most worrying sign about the Tweed Heads area for the Coalition is if the ALP continue to look like overall winners and this triggers a shift to the ALP in 2007 that mirrors the 1996 swing to Howard. However, state level results look more promising to the Coalition in the Northern part of the seat, with a 7% swing helping to deliver the 'seat' if the state results were replicated on the federal boundaries.
Booth Information
That Richmond has delivered a state National majority and a federal Labor majority shows that its results don't necessary follow the same tune as the rest of the state, and also gives heart to both parties about their chances in November. However it has been drifting towards the ALP at federal level, especially across the South of the seat, to an extent which looks genuine and long-term. It is possible that statewide results will filter into federal figures and deliver a surprise for ALP member Justine Elliot. But for the Nationals to win the seat they would have to overcome the combined effects of a federal swing and significant movements away from them at past elections across most of the seat. Richmond often has contradictory results but that combination of factors may be too much to overcome.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Nationals could win back Richmond if...
- They win Tweed Heads South (46.86% TPP in 2004, won by ALP since 1996)
- They get back to 35% of TPP at Suffolk Park (29.75% in 2004, 44.58% in 2001).
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