Blog CemeteryPetrie
November 19th 2007 11:34
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Taking in a long, thin slice of Brisbane's northern suburbs, Petrie is more an amalgamation of two distinctive areas than an electorate with a easily-found core. Surrounded by the Liberal electorates of Dickson and Longman to the west, and the Labor electorates of Lilley and Griffith to the east, Petrie could be something of a 'hinge' electorate as the ALP see it, and all of its neighbours, as within striking distance.
Past Results
The 2004 poll saw the Coalition's vote in Petrie drift above the state average for the Coalition for the first time measured at a federal election. Since the seat was won by Labor with almost 3% above their state average in 1993, the Coalition has improved their position against the state average consistently.
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2004 was the largest movement compared with the state average, with the seat moving by 3.7% in real terms and 1.5% against the state average. In all the Coalition has improved their vote by 3.33% since 1993 against the rest of Queensland and by 8.87% in raw terms. This has made Petrie the Coalition's sixth-best performer since 1993.
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The worry for the Coalition is that the seat has amplified the statewide swing at each election covered here. In the federal sphere the 1996 election saw the Coalition gain over a per cent above the state average in the 1996 landslide before falling back slightly when their statewide vote slumped in 1998. The next two elections saw the Coalition pick up votes in Queensland - more in 2004 than in 2001 - and saw Petrie follow this trend, with the Coalition picking up relatively more when the state average moved further.
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The same occurred in the 2004 state election, where a significant swing to the Coalition was amplified. The only poll which breaks the trend is last year's state election, where Petrie moved to the Coalition by 0.35% compared with a state average or 0.5%.
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The question is what will occur if Labor pick up a tract of votes across Queensland. A case can be made for the seat to defy the trend and follow its recent trend towards the Coalition, or to argue that the seat will swing back heavily to Labor. Under this scenario, the argument would be that if the swing's on, then it's really on in Petrie. If the ALP gain around 6 or 7 per cent in Queensland, which is well within the range of possibilities, it would be this which would determine the seat. If the ALP gain more than 8%, then it's highly likely that none of this will matter.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR.
The ALP could win Petrie if...
- They make a good gain in the Northern booths - the biggest swinging area to the Government - win Kippa-Ring West (43.96% TPP in 2004)
- They win Chermside West (45.75% TPP in 2004)
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