Blog CemeteryParramatta
October 18th 2007 02:13
Booth Information
Notionally Liberal but held by Labor since 2004, Parramatta is the closest thing to a must-win seat for the ALP in Sydney. A diverse seat at the junction between Northern and Western Sydney which takes in pockets of strong support for both major parties, the seat has tended to be a good indicator of the level of support for each party in Sydney.
Past Results
The 2004 election saw Labor's Julie Owens take the seat from the Coalition after sitting member Ross Cameron's campaign was derailed by revelations that he had an extramarital affair which contradicted heavily with his strong stance on family values. However, the 2006 redistribution saw the seat moved to the West, with the seat now recalculated as notionally Liberal by a margin of about 1%.
Booth Information
The newly-added suburbs in the west of the seat around Kings Langley and Seven Hills have swung significantly in recent federal elections and loom as the key area in the 2007 election. In an echo of large swings in the neighbouring seats of Chifley and Prospect, the western booths have moved to the Coalition by over 8% at the last two elections. Interestingly though, the swing was largest at the 2001 poll rather than the 2004 election, suggesting a reversal of any swing caused by the major issues of 2004 (interest rates, the Latham leadership) may be smaller than first appears in the seats west.
Federal results suggest that this western area of the seat has been drifting to the Coalition. The results since 1998 have seen the ALP's premium over their state average in the western areas of Parramatta fall from over 7% to under 2.5% and, in addition to the Coalition's strong overall performance, saw the area come within a couple of hundred votes of giving the Coalition a majority in 2004. However a strong note of caution comes from recent state results. At this level the Carr and Iemma Governments have achieved over 60% of the TPP vote at each of the last three elections, and although their vote has fallen slightly this fall has largely been in line with the state average. This could indicate a tendency for the west of the seat to support incumbent governments but it also may suggest that they are prepared to vote for ALP campaigns and does make the west of the seat a key area to watch.
Booth Information
By contrast the inner Sydney areas to the North and East of the seat have moved towards the ALP at federal level. While much of the move has been hidden by the overall statewide swing to the Coalition, the Eastern booths around Carlingford have moved by around 5% against the statewide average since 1996 to be within 1.5% of the statewide level. It is this shift which has also put the adjacent of Bennelong under threat of Labor after being held for over 30 years by Prime Minister Howard. While less spectacular, the Northern booths around Winston Hills moved by around 2% in the 2004 election to the ALP. Of the two areas, the East would appear to be the strongest for the ALP as it has also given Labor majorities at the state level in each of the past three elections and has almost matched their statewide support in the last two.
Booth Information
Being the most marginal Government seat in Sydney is enough to make Parramatta a key seat to watch in the federal election. However, the fusion of outer and inner Sydney suburbs within the seat means it may have greater significance as an indicator of a stronger swing across the city. Results in Parramatta may help show whether the ALP have made significant gains in affluent inner suburban seats such as Bennelong or North Sydney, or whether the suburban voters which have left the ALP in droves have returned to the party and may help them regain Lindsay or Greenway. But conversely, the distinctive areas within the seat suggest that all but the biggest ALP landslide may be tempered by the different voting patterns within the seat. The ALP should 'gain' the seat, and it should provide a good indication of a statewide swing, but the swing may be modest.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR...
Either the Eastern or Western areas of this seat could swing considerably in 2007. For the ALP to regain the seat good results would be...
- In the east, a further gain at Northmead (43.88% TPP in 2004)
- In the west, to regain Seven Hills High, lost in 2004 (47.53% TPP in 2004)
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