Blog CemeteryNSW maps
October 4th 2007 13:13
Just a few maps summarizing the data from each of the last five federal and last three state elections in New South Wales. At a later date I'll take a closer look at what it all means.
2004 FEDERAL ELECTION
FEDERAL ELECTION SWINGS
2001 to 2004
1998 to 2004
This encompasses the two elections since the ALP's near miss in 1998. The ALP has had a swing against it in every seat that it held at that time.
1996 to 2004
1993 to 2004
2007 STATE ELECTION
Based on federal boundaries, the 2007 state election results would have delivered the ALP 28 of the 49 seats contested, a net drop of two seats since the 2003 poll. The Coalition would have gained Robertson, Cook and Richmond, while the ALP would have gained Eden-Monaro.
STATE ELECTION SWING
There three graphs show the swing between the 2007 and 2003 elections. Obviously these are going to be strongly effected by state issues. But if a strong swing to either party is seen in at both state and federal level there may be a case to believe that the seat is trending in that direction.
ELECTIONS WON
This measure looks at how many of the 14 elections covered here (5 House and Senate elections dating back to 1993, 3 Legislative Assembly elections since 1999, the 2007 Legislative Council election) each major party has won. I'm looking here at only TPP figures between the major parties, which would affect North Sydney, Warringah, Calare and New England (and some other rural seats). As the maps show elections won comfortably by each major party overall they provide some indication of the 'high water' mark for each. Of the key marginals, they show that Lindsay and Dobell have been predominately ALP, Bennelong has been winnable for Labor, but Wentworth, Page and Cowper would require unprecedented support for the ALP to win.
2004 FEDERAL ELECTION
FEDERAL ELECTION SWINGS
2001 to 2004
1998 to 2004
This encompasses the two elections since the ALP's near miss in 1998. The ALP has had a swing against it in every seat that it held at that time.
1996 to 2004
1993 to 2004
2007 STATE ELECTION
Based on federal boundaries, the 2007 state election results would have delivered the ALP 28 of the 49 seats contested, a net drop of two seats since the 2003 poll. The Coalition would have gained Robertson, Cook and Richmond, while the ALP would have gained Eden-Monaro.
STATE ELECTION SWING
There three graphs show the swing between the 2007 and 2003 elections. Obviously these are going to be strongly effected by state issues. But if a strong swing to either party is seen in at both state and federal level there may be a case to believe that the seat is trending in that direction.
ELECTIONS WON
This measure looks at how many of the 14 elections covered here (5 House and Senate elections dating back to 1993, 3 Legislative Assembly elections since 1999, the 2007 Legislative Council election) each major party has won. I'm looking here at only TPP figures between the major parties, which would affect North Sydney, Warringah, Calare and New England (and some other rural seats). As the maps show elections won comfortably by each major party overall they provide some indication of the 'high water' mark for each. Of the key marginals, they show that Lindsay and Dobell have been predominately ALP, Bennelong has been winnable for Labor, but Wentworth, Page and Cowper would require unprecedented support for the ALP to win.
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