Blog CemeteryNorth Sydney
October 28th 2007 08:58
Booth Information
Situated on Sydney's North shore from Cremorne Point to Henley, North Sydney has generally been a safe Liberal seat. However the seat has been the ALP's strongest performer at the last two federal elections, and with the ALP hoping to make sizeable gains across NSW it is, for the first time, a seat they believe they have a realistic chance of winning.
Result History
Despite swinging by over 3% in 2004, the Liberals still won every booth contested at a TPP level for the fifth straight House poll. Their strongest areas of support were in Cremorne and Northbridge in the seat's East, and around the Lane Cove River, polling highest at the booths at Hunters Hill (69.26%), Henley (68.98%) and Woolwich (67.98%). The ALP were most competitive at Artamon in the seat's North, along its Western border, and in Wollstonecraft in the South of the seat.
Booth Information
But while the Coalition won every booth contested in 2004, they sustained a swing of over 3% which saw the seat almost move out of the 'safe' category for the first time measured. While no swing is uniform across a seat, 2004's movement to Labor in North Sydney goes close, with each of the three regions in the seat moving by between 2 and 3.5% and most of the suburbs in the seat moving by a similar margin. The swing was slightly stronger in the seat's East and centre, but was solid across the seat. While the other safe Coalition seats performed well for the ALP, North Sydney had the biggest swing to the ALP of all NSW seats.
Booth Information
The 2004 poll echoed earlier swings from the Coalition which have seen MP Joe Hockey's margin North Sydney almost slashed in half since 1996. Over this longer time frame the swing has been more geographically concentrated on the area around the Lane Cove River in the South-West, and on the seat's Eastern border. But even over three elections the swing has been solid across the seat, with all but the two booths at Kirribilli, and the small St Leonards booth, moving to the ALP at a time when their statewide vote has been largely stagnant. Once again, North Sydney has been the ALP's move improved seat since 1996, with the Coalition's overall ranking in the seat slipping by ten places since 1998 from 6th to 16th.
Booth Information
But state election results do bring into question whether the ALP's strong federal results indicate anything more than a protest vote against the government. After the ALP had made similar though smaller gains to the federal level in 2003, the 2007 poll saw the ALP's vote fell sharply, with a swing of almost 10% to the Coalition that saw the Coalition's overall ranking rise from 14th back to 6th. Every booth contested moved towards the Coalition, with the swing once again consistent across the seat. Against their state average vote, 2007 was the ALP's worst result measured in the seat.
Booth Information
As with the other North Shore seats that have drifted back to federal Labor, North Sydney has seen the ALP perform much better at federal level than state level. Almost every booth saw the ALP pull a higher TPP vote at the 2004 federal poll than the 2007 state election, with the differences focused on a spread of booths along the Gore Hill Freeway from Neutral Bay to Artamon, and across to Lane Cove. A key for the ALP's slim hopes of winning the seat is that these booths continue to swing to the ALP despite the big disparity between their federal and state results.
Booth Information
The considerable swings to the ALP in North Sydney cannot be ignored, and with the expectations of a good election result for the ALP across the state the seat may be one to watch for the first time since being held by independent Ted Mack in the 1990's. The consistency of the swing to the ALP could indicate that it will continue in 2007, although the reversal at statewide level is a worrying factor. It would take a very strong overall result, but if the seat swings to the ALP by more the state average again North Sydney could be the icing on the cake for Labor.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win North Sydney if...
- They win the Cammeray booth (40.33% TPP in 2004) - generally within 1 or 2% of the overall seat result
- They win the Lane Cove booth (41.09% TPP in 2004)
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