Kate SlackMenzies
November 11th 2007 02:39
Booth Information
Stretching eastwards from Bulleen and Doncaster out to the outskirts of Ringwood, Menzies takes in a range of Eastern Melbourne suburbs between the Yarra River and the Eastern Freeway. The seat has drifted towards the ALP relative to the two party’s state averages but was still a safe Coalition seat in 2004, with member Kevin Andrews winning the seat by almost 11%.
The Coalition has a solid majority across most of the seat, carrying every suburb, and all but the Bulleen West booth in the 2004 federal election. While the ALP polled over 45% at TPP in the inner suburbs of Bulleen and Doncaster, the margin grows further away from the city, with the Coalition’s TPP over 65% in six suburbs in the seat’s North and East, peaking at 73.8% in Wonga Park. The Coalition’s TPP has fallen slightly compared with the state average, dipping below Coalition-10 in 2004 after hovering just below Coalition-11 at three of the previous four elections. This has seen the seat drop from a rank of 5th safest in Victoria for the Coalition to 8th in 2004, with the large swing in outer Melbourne sweeping Aston, Casey and Flinders into the top 7. Despite this, the high levels of statewide support for the Coalition mean that the 2004 result was in absolute terms their best since 1996, with the seat pushing back into the Safe category.
The Coalition’s growth has improved the greatest in the south-eastern booths around Warrandyte South and Ringwood. But while this is consistent with the large swings across the boundary in Casey, the Menzies’ booths moved further in the last decade than in the present one. In contrast the central area of the seat has moved against the state average against the Liberals. From similar levels of support in 1993, the Coalition received 66.5% of the TPP in 2004 in the South-East but just 58.5% in the Central booths. While this has shrunk rather than threatened Coalition majorities in these central suburbs, it has pushed Doncaster into the marginal category and solidified – at the federal level – the correlation between Liberal support and distance from the city within Menzies.
Booth Information
While Andrews has held Menzies comfortably at most elections his margin (under present boundaries) did drop below 6% in the 1998 federal poll. This was brought about by a combination of the Liberal’s poor statewide performance in 1998, and the candidacy of pro-euthanasia campaigner Phillip Nitschke as an independent. Nitschke polled around 9%, with his strongest performances in Lower Templestowe and Doncaster. Compared with the average results of 1996 and 2001, Nitschke’s candidacy provided a swing of around 2% to the ALP across the seat with most booths in the central or west of the seat moving by around 2.5% to the ALP However, Nitschke’s campaign appears to have little effect in the East of the seat. Nitschke is running again in 2007 and while there is no indication that he will threaten to split the major parties, a primary vote in double figures would provide a good swing to the ALP.
Booth Information
Menzies has been a stronger seat at the state level than federal, with the state seats that encompass most of the voters – Doncaster and Bulleen – both staying with the Coalition at each election. While the seat did drop by above the state average in 2002, it still would have been held by the Coalition by over three percent that year. In 2006 the seat swung back heavily towards the Coalition, rising back above Coalition-12.5 and returning a Coalition majority in all but one booth. Behind Kooyong, Menzies is now the second safest Coalition seat in Melbourne. In a number of booths the Coalition achieved a higher TPP vote in the 2006 state election than in the 2004 federal election, with this trend most prominent in the booths along the Eastern Freeway. Only in the outer booths was there a sizeable difference between 2004 and last year’s campaign. But whether this will have any impact on the federal campaign is questiotnable. While suggesting a strong Liberal constituency that is loyal even in large election losses, it could also indicate a strong built-in support for the state Liberals which is not reflected in federal Liberal support. This may be connected to the current government, although the Hewson 1993 campaign still had a lower relative TPP for the Coalition than most state elections. Interesting the Coalition’s TPP in the upper house is significantly lower than the Legislative Assembly, suggesting the Coalition may poll well in the Assembly due to a high personal vote.
Booth Information
If 2004’s large swings to the Government in outer Melbourne return back to the ALP there is a good chance that the Coalition will gain against the state average in Menzies. However the Nitschke campaign may throw a spanner in the works for Kevin Andrews. If he is able to poll higher than in the 1998 election he could provide the ALP with a swing in excess of three per cent, which – combined with a large statewide swing to the ALP – might bring the seat into play. But short of a landslide victory for Labor, and a high vote for Nitschke, it looks unlikely that the ALP could threaten in Menzies.
What to Watch for
The ALP could win Menzies if…
- They win the three biggest booths in the seat – Doncaster East (44.9% in 2004), Templestowe Heights (42.5%) and Bulleen (46.8%).
- They poll over 45% in the Kalinda booth – the biggest in the Ringwood area and the one which has swung the furthest to the Coalition.
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