Blog CemeteryMcMillan 2007
November 27th 2007 12:16
The story of the 2007 election was the large swing to Labor. However it's worth looking at some of the seats in which the Coalition held firm. One such seat was McMillan, where Russell Broadbent withstood the statewide swing and may, after all votes are counted, have actually achieved a swing in his direction.
Broadbent's achievement is all the more because he achieved it against what had been a pretty convincing swing through the seat at previous elections. As the map above shows, almost all of the seat had been swinging against the Liberals since 1996, with only the facts that the swing had been sluggish in Moe, and that it had been to the Coalition in suburban Pakenham, allowing the Liberals to maintain their majority in 2004.
So the big gains made by Labor last weekend appear conducive to McMillan being a Labor gain. While slightly failing to gain a majority in Pakenham the swing was on there; if it had been uniform across the seat it would have granted Labor victory in the seat.
However the swing in the rest of the seat was far more sluggish, and also unpredictable. It would be reasonable to assume that much of Broadbent's gains would have been the result of an incumbent vote. However, Labor generally performed pretty well in the less populated Southern part of the seat, and in the smaller booths, winning all but Inverloch and Leongatha in the South of the seat. What this may suggest is that the lack of a National Party candidate in 2007 won over some votes to Labor.
What was the most interesting result was around the Princes Highway. Here the performance for the Coalition tended to get better the further East you head. We've already mentioned the big swing in Pakenham, but the Liberal stronghold of Drouin in the centre of the seat also moved to Labor, But it was the Eastern fringe of the seat which was the most interesting. In Moe and Warragul results were mixed, with small swings to Labor in some booths countered by swings to the Coalition. Further the small towns along the Highway, such as Trafalgar, tended to move against the statewide trend to the Liberals.
Now, these should have been areas where work choices and interest rates hit the Liberals hard. Other provincial seats, such as Bendigo, Ballarat and McEwen, all moved considerably to the Coalition. But McMillan is close to the Latrobe Valley, Victoria's major power generating area. So I'd argue that Labor's chances of taking McMillan were probably torpedoed by their strong stance on environmental issues. Talk of ratifying Kyoto, climate change, and mandatory targets were a major factor in positioning Labor as a party of a future, and of delivering them government. However it's arguable that the stance cost them any real chance in McMillan
Broadbent's achievement is all the more because he achieved it against what had been a pretty convincing swing through the seat at previous elections. As the map above shows, almost all of the seat had been swinging against the Liberals since 1996, with only the facts that the swing had been sluggish in Moe, and that it had been to the Coalition in suburban Pakenham, allowing the Liberals to maintain their majority in 2004.
So the big gains made by Labor last weekend appear conducive to McMillan being a Labor gain. While slightly failing to gain a majority in Pakenham the swing was on there; if it had been uniform across the seat it would have granted Labor victory in the seat.
However the swing in the rest of the seat was far more sluggish, and also unpredictable. It would be reasonable to assume that much of Broadbent's gains would have been the result of an incumbent vote. However, Labor generally performed pretty well in the less populated Southern part of the seat, and in the smaller booths, winning all but Inverloch and Leongatha in the South of the seat. What this may suggest is that the lack of a National Party candidate in 2007 won over some votes to Labor.
What was the most interesting result was around the Princes Highway. Here the performance for the Coalition tended to get better the further East you head. We've already mentioned the big swing in Pakenham, but the Liberal stronghold of Drouin in the centre of the seat also moved to Labor, But it was the Eastern fringe of the seat which was the most interesting. In Moe and Warragul results were mixed, with small swings to Labor in some booths countered by swings to the Coalition. Further the small towns along the Highway, such as Trafalgar, tended to move against the statewide trend to the Liberals.
Now, these should have been areas where work choices and interest rates hit the Liberals hard. Other provincial seats, such as Bendigo, Ballarat and McEwen, all moved considerably to the Coalition. But McMillan is close to the Latrobe Valley, Victoria's major power generating area. So I'd argue that Labor's chances of taking McMillan were probably torpedoed by their strong stance on environmental issues. Talk of ratifying Kyoto, climate change, and mandatory targets were a major factor in positioning Labor as a party of a future, and of delivering them government. However it's arguable that the stance cost them any real chance in McMillan
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