Kate SlackMcEwen
October 28th 2007 07:58
Booth Information
McEwen looms as the most interesting Victorian seat at the upcoming federal election. It contains a mixture of outer Northern suburban booths, large provincial towns, and smaller rural booths, as well as including tourist centres in the Yarra Valley, at Eildon, and in the Macedon Ranges. Also, it was the only Victorian seat to vote above the state average for the Coalition in TPP terms in the 2004 federal election while voting above the state average for Labor in the 2006 state election.
Detailed Results
By far the most striking fact that comes from McEwen’s past results has been the discrepancy between federal and state results. At the 2004 federal election, McEwen moved towards the Howard Government by more than the Victorian average, with the seat (as presently constituted) moving out of the marginal category for the first time on the back of a 3.6% TPP swing. Previously the Liberals had held the seat by between 2% and 4% at each federal election, with the seat moving somewhat with the state average but the predominant trend being that small but stable margin in favour of the Coalition, combined with a TPP for the Coalition between 4 and 6% above the state average.
Booth Information
However recent state results have trended sharply to the ALP. In the shock win by Steve Bracks in 1999, the seats of Gisborne and Seymour fell to the ALP after significant swings. The ALP consolidated their gains throughout McEwen with a swing of 9% in the 2002 state election, and despite a 1.6% swing back to the Coalition in 2006 the seat has moved from 2% above the state average for the Coalition in 1999 to 2.3% under in 2006. In ranking terms this has seen the seat rise from the 20th best in Victoria for the ALP to 17th. In both ranking and percentage terms, these figures would give the seat comfortably to the ALP if they were translated to the federal level.
Booth Information
Demographically, McEwen is more a combination of a number of different regions rather than a seat based around a region or town. Thus while the trend towards incumbent governments has been high by the state average across the seat there are definite areas in which the trend is strongest. In the towns that line the Northern and Hume Highways in the centre of the seat, the difference between state and federal elections was 17% overall, with Seymour and Wallan – the two largest towns in the region – different by 18.3% and 21% respectively. Even taking into account the different state average vote for each major party, the Northern area of McEwen voted 5.5% above the state average for the Howard Government in 2004, before voting 6.6% above the state average for the Bracks Government two years later. Wallan has moved to the ALP by 7% above the state average in the last two Legislative Assembly elections while moving to the Howard Government by 10% over the state average in the 2004 House election. Interestingly, while Wallan is almost suburban rather than provincial now and has similarly high population growth as other Melbourne areas which have swung behind incumbent governments, Seymour had less voters in 2004 than in the 1993 federal election and is definitely a provincial town. The discrepancy between federal and state results is especially relevant in McEwen because this swing determines who carries the area; thus in the 2004 federal election the Hume Highway region gave the Coalition a majority almost 2,000 voters, while giving the ALP a majority of almost 3,000 votes in 2006.
Booth Information
Across the other major regions of McEwen there have also been sizeable differences between federal and state support for each party. But while in these areas Labor are picking up large numbers at state level, there has not been a corresponding move to the Coalition at the federal level, with small swings that are comfortably below the statewide trend. Thus in the western areas near the Macedon Rangers, the pro-Governments differential was over 12% between 2004 and 2006. At state level, the ALP’s TPP vote has risen from 0.9% above the state average in 1999 to 5% above in 2006. However at the federal level the region has trended to the ALP by almost 3% compared to the state average. Even more significant has been the swing in the Diamond Valley. The most suburban area in the seat, and the largest in terms of population, the Coalition vote in this area has fallen by 2% compared with the state average in the last two federal elections, while at the state level they have dropped from 3.4% above the state average to 2.2% below since 1999.
McEwen goes into the 2007 election as an anomaly; a Victorian seat whose state and federal results are in stark contrast to each other. In each of the four largest population areas, the Coalition gained a majority in 2004 but the ALP gained a TPP vote above the state average in 2006. But given the solid trend towards the ALP at the federal level in much of the seat I would not be surprised if any statewide swing to the ALP in Victoria is exaggerated in a seat which has shown a willingness to vote in ALP members with large majorities at state level. The ALP isn’t expected to pick up any seats in Victoria. But if they are to do so, I would expect McEwen to be the first to fall.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
For the ALP to win, they would need to…
- Win Seymour and Wallan booths (56.5% and 56% Lib TPP respectively in 2004)
- Win Diamond Creek East (56.5% Lib in 2004)
- Win Romsey (54.8% Lib in 2004)
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