Blog CemeteryLowe
October 24th 2007 14:13
Booth Information
Lowe is the ALP's most marginal seat in Sydney. However it has been one of Labor's best performing seats at both state and federal levels, and if the ALP receive any sort of swing at the statewide level it would take a major reversal of recent trends for the Liberals to have any real chance of taking the seat.
Detailed Results
Surrounded by safe ALP seats to the East, South and West, and by long-held Coalition seats in Bennelong and North Sydney on the North banks of the Parramatta River, Lowe is a mix of Liberal and ALP won booths. In 2004, the ALP won roughly 2/3 of the booths contested, gaining a useful swing in Drummoyne (2.6%) and a new majority at Abbotsford. However they suffered a slight overall swing which brought their margin down to around 3%, with significant swings of around 3% occurring in Concord, Five Dock and Croydon Park. Each party won just one booth with more than 65% of the TPP Vote (Strathfield West for the Coalition, Flemington for the ALP) with a majority of booths decided by 5% or less.
Booth Information
Despite the small swing against the ALP in 2004, and a similar swing in 2001 - although one which was greatly dwarfed by the statewide swing to the Coalition - Lowe has been one of the ALP's most improved performers in recent elections. After losing the seat in the 1996 Howard landslide, Labor gained almost 7% in 1998 before holding most of that swing despite a sizeable swing to the Coalition at the statewide level in 2001. After following the statewide average in 1993 and 1996, the ALP polled almost 5% above their statewide average in 2004. In relation to other NSW seats, Lowe has jumped from 23rd place in the 1996 poll to 18th in 2004.
Booth Information
The swing to the ALP has also been prominent at recent state elections. Once again, Lowe has moved from near the state average to solidly Labor, with the ALP polling 8% above the state vote in the 2007 election on the back of successive 3% swings against the state average. Once again this has seen Lowe move from near the middle of the pack to be in the ALP's top 20 seats in the state, a position which would see the seat safe at most recent elections. The combined swing at federal and state elections since 1996 in Lowe is the second strongest in favor of the ALP in NSW (5.57% at federal level, 2.24% at state level), with only neighbouring Watson swinging further.
Booth Information
The swing has been strongest in the Southern areas of the seat, around Enfield and Burwood. After the Coalition polled slightly above their state average there in the 1993 and 1996 federal elections, the 1998 and 2001 elections saw the ALP gain 10% against a statewide gain of under 1%, with gains of 11% at Croydon, 12% at Burwood and 15% at Homebush. While this area did fall back slightly in 2004 the ALP still polled over 56% of the TPP vote which provided almost their whole majority across the seat. The state pattern has been similar, with a swing of 8% in 2003 followed by a slight reversal in 2007 (although the area did improve against the state average). Overall the 2004 and 2007 swings towards the Coalition provide some encouragement for the Liberals that the drift in the south of Lowe may have come to an end. However it appears more likely that these small swings were the product of larger scale swings rather than any local shift which may see the area return to its previous parity.
The other areas of the seat offers a little more encouragement for the Coalition, although once again there is plenty of grounds to doubt whether they are really likely to make significant gains. In the eastern booths around Five Dock and Drummoyne, the Liberals have made reasonable gains at the last two state elections and have almost gained a majority at the last three federal polls. Meanwhile the Concord area has moved by over 4.5% since 1998, with the suburb of Concord won by the Liberals in 2004 at federal level for the first time since 1996.
Booth Information
But are these trends sustainable and significant for the 2007 federal poll? The utility of the state election swing in the Eastern booths for the federal level is most questionable: these are more likely to indicate a dissatisfaction with the Labor government, are consistent with the larger number of exhausted votes under the state's voting system in an area where the Greens poll strongest, and in any case has only seen the ALP's vote fall by the state average anyway. The more interesting case is in Concord. While the swing there hasn't been massive in statewide terms, it has been significant at each of the last two elections, possibility indicating a longer trend. However even here the ALP are still polling above the state average; in a federal poll where their vote can be expected to increase this will have to change in significant parts of the seat for the Liberals to have a chance.
Large portions of Lowe have shown sizeable and relatively long-term swings towards the ALP in recent years. More significantly, this has occurred in a reasonably barren spell at federal level, and in time of widespread success in state polls, which suggests a trend of greater support for the ALP rather than a reaction to trends in either the state or federal sphere. Recent results may indicate this drift is slowing and the Coalition may be able to make up some ground. But the evidence in favour of a further swing to the ALP is stronger in terms of number and timeframe. In conjunction with the potential for a statewide swing to Labor, Lowe looks likely to become a far safer seat for the ALP.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR...
The Liberals could win Lowe if...
- They win the Strathfield North booth - generally a good bellwether (47.77% TPP in 2004)
- They win Five Dock Central (46.72% TPP in 2004)
- They improve to 38% TPP at the Burwood booth (36.69% in 2004)
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