Blog CemeteryLongman
November 19th 2007 06:51
Booth Information
Incorporating Brisbane's Northern Suburbs, as well as Bribie Island, Longman has swung strongly to the coalition at the last two elections. Held by high-profile Government Minister Mal Brough the seat is the safest it's been at any of the last five elections, but with its growing population and tendency to vote strongly for the state Labor government the seat is a clear target for Labor.
Past Results
Longman was one of the Coalition's strongest seats in the 2004 election, with Brough gaining almost 6% on TPP terms and winning the seat on primary votes. Two terms after the ALP won the seat (on current boundaries) and won a majority of the votes, the Coalition moved the seat out of the marginal category and limited the ALP to victory in only one booth, at Kallangur (and there by just 0.64%).
Booth Information
Voting patterns across the seat are quite homogenous, with all three regions polling within 1.5% of the seatwide average and the ALP polling over 35% of the vote at all booths carried by the Coalition. The Liberals best booths strongest suburbs were Narangba and Mango Hill, where they polled over 60% of the vote.
Booth Information
But while all parts of Longman provided the Coalition with solid majorities in the 2004 election, the shining part of the seat for the Liberals in 2004 was the coastal areas. In two elections the coastal area of the seat, stretching from Deception Bay north to Donnybrook, has grown by 25% while swinging by almost 13% to the Coalition.
Booth Information
In raw numbers, almost 4000 voters have moved into the area, with the ALP gaining the votes of 100, compared with 3785 voters being added to the Coalition total. Whereas the ALP won every coastal booth in 1998, they did not win one in 2004.
Booth Information
The ALP's vote in state elections has held up rather better, with a solid majority well above the state average at each of the last three elections. However there was a big swing against the ALP in the 2004 election, with the seat as a whole moving by almost 9%, the coastal booths moving by almost 12%, and Bribie Island by almost 14%. The ALP's vote did hold up well in 2006, with the state Government comfortably winning the seat although the seat has got a higher ranking for the state party than the federal party. Undoubtedly the ALP were helped in 2001 by the strong vote for One Nation and the City/Country Alliance, which would have split the right-wing vote. Looking at 2006 we can see a solid ALP support in the seat which the ALP can take some comfort from in 2007.
Booth Information
What makes Longman a key seat to watch in 2007 is the massive population growth in the seat. Since 1993, the population of the seat has increased by over 30,000, with the Coalition's TPP vote in 2004 almost triple (in number of votes) their 1993 total. What this raises is the importance of interest rates as in issue entering the 2007 race. It is widely thought that large swings to the Liberals in outer suburban seats in 2004 were the cause of the interest rates campaigns conducted by the Coalition. If this is the case, and these voters return to the ALP, then seats like Longman may rebound heavily back to Labor. While the seat is held by a high-profile minister touted by some as having leadership potential, if the swing is on Longman may be a big scalp for Labor.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Longman if...
- They regain majorities in the Deception Bay booths (won all five in 2001, lost all five in 2004). Thus winning the Moreton Downs booth (the strongest for Liberals with 57.73% TPP in 2004) would be huge.
- Winning the Caboolture booth (45.26% TPP in 2004)
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