Blog CemeteryLindsay
October 29th 2007 23:46
Booth Information
Lindsay has been one of the success stories for the Howard Government - a seat in the 'Labor heartland' that swung to safe Coalition control. But with a unhelpful redistribution, and the retirement of four-term member Jackie Kelly, many are predicting that the seat will be one of the first in NSW to fall to the ALP.
Result History
Recent results would suggest that this may be wishful thinking. The Liberals gained almost 12% at the 1996 election, before improving against their statewide vote at each of the last three elections. The early swings were strongest around Penrith in the centre of the seat, with both the East Penrith and Penrith areas swinging by over 12% in the 1993 poll. However Penrith's position as something of a beacon for the swing to the Liberals in Western Sydney is almost totally reliant on the 1996 swing, with swings in 2001 and 2004 being far more patchy and the area as a whole moving back slightly to the ALP in the 2004 poll.
Booth Information
The only area of the seat to move significantly to the Coalition since 1998 has been in the strongly Labor areas at St Marys in the seat's East. After moving heavily back to the ALP in the 1998 poll, this area of the seat swung by 8.5% in 2001 before moving by around 3% in 2004. Despite only taking up around 12% of the seat's voters this will be a significant part of the seat in 2007, with the ALP looking to regain what they would see as a naturally strong area for them and the Coalition hoping the effect of Kelly's retirement will be minimized in an area where she had not been the long-term member.
Booth Information
That this area has shifted considerably to the Coalition in recent elections despite not being held by a Coalition member suggests the effects of Kelly's retirement may be offset if the new candidate can gain a considerable level of personal support. The St Mary's swing may indicate that the swing in the Western suburbs of Sydney is more due to regional factors than simply to the local member in Lindsay. Of course if the whole region swings back to the ALP Lindsay will still be likely to fall.
Booth Information
The ALP have had a better time at the state level, with their vote significantly above their statewide average and the seat's ranking in terms of ALP TPP vote almost 10 places higher than at federal elections. The Coalition have recovered slightly from a terrible result in the 1999 state election, but overall this has been limited to the rural booths in the seat's North and South, and the East Penrith area. Overall, the state results indicate a seat that is still willing to vote for the ALP and could swing heavily if it turns away from the Howard Government.
Booth Information
Lindsay was one of the first seats in Western Sydney to move heavily to the Government. But while it has continued to drift to the Coalition at recent polls the seat has lagged in comparison to its neighbouring seats. This could work either way for the Coalition. This could mean that the seat is slowly turning back to the ALP, and will move strongly in the 2007 election. However it could also mean that the Coalition's support is stronger in Lindsay by virtue of the longer time period in which they have performed well. It's unlikely that the seat will be able to withstand any significant swing to the ALP, but the differing possibilities provide no definitive indications of an ALP landslide to match 1996.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Lindsay if...
- They win the Cambridge Gardens booth (46.95% in 2004)
- Their support bounces back in St Marys - 58% TPP in St Marys South (53.89% in 2004)
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