Kate SlackLalor
October 21st 2007 22:24
Booth Information
Lalor takes in the booming western fringes of Melbourne from Werribee on Port Phillip Bay to Diggers Rest on the Calder Highway. In its various guises it has only been won by the Liberal party once (in 1966), and has been successively held by ALP front bench members Jim Cairns, Barry Jones and now deputy leader Julia Gillard. On its present dimensions it has grown in population by over a third since the 1993 federal election, and while the ALP has not come under serious threat Gillard's margin dipped below 9% in 2004.
Detailed Results
While Lalor includes large tracts of rural areas outside the suburban fringe, it is dominated by the suburbs of Werribee and Hoppers Crossing on the Princes Highway, and Melton on the Western Highway and near the seat's geographical centre. Most of the major population growth has taken place around the Werribee area with Hoppers Crossing growing by 48%, Wyndham Vale by 47% and Point Cook in the seat's South-East corner growing from 198 voters in 1996 to 3687 voters in 2004. Taking into account the threefold increase in non-booth votes cast, in total the southern section of the seat has increased by almost half over the last thirteen years, while the population of the northern half of the seat has grown far slower.
Booth Information
In the last two elections, this population growth has been matched by a significant drop in the ALP's TPP vote. In addition to the 7.3% swing in absolute terms since 1998, the ALP's TPP has fallen by over 5% from the state average since 1996. The swing towards the Liberal party has almost evenly felt in the northern and southern areas of the seats, but when broken down it is clear that the biggest swings have occurred in some of the areas with large population growth, with Wyndham Vale swinging by 10.8%, Werribee by 9.8% (population growth 20%), Westmelton by 8.3% (population 13.5%), and the Seabrook booth in Point Cook swinging by 12%. Conversely, more established areas such as Werribee South, Melton and the handful of rural booths fell by far less. The swing has not affected the Lalor's position in terms of TPP in Victoria, with the seat placed 8th or 9th at each of the last five federal elections.
Booth Information
But while this indicates that the swing in Lalor is similar to other swings towards the Howard Government in fast growing Labor held areas of Melbourne, such as Craigieburn and Narre Warren, the swing in Lalor has not been accompanied by a noticeable swing towards the Bracks Government at state level. At the last three state elections, Lalor has had a TPP for Labor consistently around 10% above the state average - a similar level to the federal difference and one that suggests there is a chance that this is more of a long-term swing than the trend towards incumbency affecting many suburbs of Melbourne.
Booth Information
If this holds, it would suggest that results for Lalor won't provide as much of a window on other suburban electorates as it may appear at first, but also that the ALP's support in Lalor may never reach the level of the 1990's. The seat is almost certain to remain an ALP seat in 2007, but Gillard will want to halt the swing (in state average terms) to ensure the ALP’s solid grip on Lalor is not slipping.
What to Watch For
The ALP will almost certainly win Lalor, but there are still things to spot
- The ALP will want a TPP over 10% above the state average - the election will show whether the seat is trending against them or whether 2001 and 2004 were blips.
- A swing here might translate to other swings in ALP-held outer Melbourne seats, although this may be limited if the above analysis is correct.
- A strong Family First performance - polled 7% in 2006 Legislative Assembly election so will want to do well in the House to help their Senate bid.
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