Blog CemeteryLa Trobe
October 21st 2007 02:46
Booth Information
Including the outer Eastern urban fringe of Melbourne, and much of the Dandenong Ranges, La Trobe is one of the Coalition's most marginal seats in Victoria and a prime target for Labor in 2007.
Result Summary
The 2004 election saw the Liberals achieve a slight swing to them, although by less than the state average swing. The swing was strongest in the Boronia area (3.3%), with the Coalition capturing majorities in four extra booths in the area as well as the overall majority there. The ALP did make a slight gain in The Dandenongs, although they didn't gain any booths and lost Gembrook to the Liberals. The Liberals strongest booths were in the Berwick area, at Clyde (73.99%), Narre Warren East (72.73%) and Officer (69.13%), while the ALP's best results were as Selby (59.33%), Belgrave (59.27%) and Tecoma (56.03%). Although the Coalition gained votes for a second straight election, their margin against the state average was at its smallest since 1996.
Booth Information
La Trobe is made up of distinctive suburban areas around Boronia and Berwick, the semi-suburban area around Belgrave, and the smaller and more isolated booths through the Dandenongs. As these areas are quite separate from each other they can be looked at separately to determine distinctive patterns. The largest area is also the Coalition's strongest around Berwick. Extending to the outskirts of Pakenham in the East and to Clyde in the South, the Liberals won every Berwick booth at the 2004 and 2001 House elections and gained over 60% of the vote each time.
Booth Information
This area of the seat looms as the key in 2007, as it is providing most of the growth within the seat (up from 13,000 to 22,000 between 1993 and 2004) and has also had the biggest difference between state and federal elections. While the Liberals have clung to a slight majority in the Berwick area at each of the last two state elections, their vote was almost 12% below 2004 result in the 2006 state election. But while this does indicate that the ALP can poll well in the area they only made significant gains at state level after achieving power, with Coalition polling better at the 1999 state election in Berwick than in the 2004 poll before losing 14% of their vote in 2002.
In the North-West of the seat is the Boronia area, which is the most established suburban area in the seat. Also including Bayswater and Ferntree Gully, results in the Boronia area tend to see the Coalition poll slightly better than the state average, with the 'winner' of this area also polling over 50% across the state in all but three of the 16 elections looked at here. Since 1998 this area has driven the Coalition's TPP vote above 55%, with a swing of almost 7% acros the seat. Thus it will also be of interest in 2007, as the ALP would hope to be able to regain support from voters who moved to the Liberals in the interest rate election of 2004. Interestingly, this will be a different task to many other outer-suburban areas which flocked to the Coalition as in the Boronia area the state Liberals have performed relatively well and the area doesn't have the large difference between federal and state results as seen in Dunkley, Holt and Aston. Also the importance of winning Boronia on the seat of La Trobe cannot be overestimated, as the party won it at four straight federal elections without, on current boundaries, winning the seat.
Booth Information
Finally comes the Eastern half of the seat, centered around the Dandenong Ranges. Closest to Boronia are the large booths from Upwey to Belgrave which have provided the ALP with their strongest and most consistent support at both federal and state levels. With the exception of the most suburban Belgrave South booth, the ALP has won each booth in the Belgrave area at each of the last five federal elections and has also gained over 60% at the last two state elections. Further east are the more rural booths scattered around the Mount Dandenongs from Gembrook to Olinda. The Coalition has generally polled small majorities here at federal level, based on normally winning the large Emerald and Gembrook booths. However the area as a whole swung slightly to the ALP in 2004. In both areas the ALP will look to make gains although the anecdotal evidence suggests they will be fought on social issues rather than the economic issues which helped the government in 2004.
The differing areas of La Trobe may help the Liberals see off Labor in La Trobe in 2007. As recent elections hasn't revealed any basic voting pattern across the seat which casts into doubt the ALP's chances of making up 6% next month. Of course if the ALP gains above this amount at state level then the seat will probably fall, but I can't see the ALP gaining La Trobe without the support of a big statewide swing.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR...
The ALP could win La Trobe if at least three of the following occur...
- They make good gains in Berwick, winning the Oatlands booth (46.8% TPP in 2004)
- They regain a solid majority in the Boronia area, winning the Ferntree Gully West booth (45.65% in 2004)
- They gain a majority in the large Belgrave South booth (45.05% TPP in 2004)
- They win the Emerald booth (47.54% in 2004)
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