Blog CemeteryJagajaga
October 18th 2007 12:59
Booth Information
Taking in a large stretch of Melbourne’s North-Eastern suburbs, Jagajaga has been won by Labor at every election since its formation in the 1984 redistribution. The ALP has won the seat in each of the 16 elections covered by a stable margin largely best described as comfortable without being safe, and mostly immune to statewide swings. The ALP did improve its statewide TPP rank in 2004 from a normal rank between 15th and 17th to 12th but this was largely because of the seemingly inherent stability that ensured that the seat only drifted marginally to the surging Howard Government.
Detailed Results
Jagajaga is one of the most diverse seats in Melbourne, which at least four different areas which seemingly demand differing treatment. Stretching from the exclusive areas around Ivanhoe north to very working-class sections of Heidelberg West, Macleod and Bundoora, it then stretches east across the middle-class suburbs of Watsonia, Greensborough and Rosanna before reaching Eltham, which is home to large numbers of green-orientated people but has recently began to become more suburban. Interestingly for a suburb lacking any strong homogeneity, recent trends have been remarkably similar across the seat on most measures. While the seat does have divergent levels of support for the major parties no area of the seat has strongly trended towards either major party and the seat has demonstrated considerable stability.
Booth Information
What this stability shows, is that the suburban swings to the Liberals which have dominated the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne have not jumped the Yarra to Jagajaga. While much of the seat from Rosanna and Greensborough eastwards to Eltham can be described as suburban, they have not sustained the kind of population growth which have defined large swinging areas such as Craigieburn and Langwarrin. Only the booths in St Helena in the seat’s far North, the large booth at Watsonia in the North East, and the central booths around Montmorency have provided any inkling of following the suburban trend to the Howard Government, and even in these areas the swing has been relatively weak, peaking at 4.8% since 1996 in St Helena and 3.9% since 1993 at Watsonia (Even this swing in Watsonia can be largely dismissed as the suburb as a whole has moved by less than 1% in the same period, with the Labor vote apparently transferring to the other booths). Symbolically, both the central booths around Rosanna, and the Eastern booths around Eltham, have moved from small Liberal minorities to small ALP minorities since 1993, and even more dramatically so at the state level. This has meant that the ALP has ‘won’ each of the areas within Jagajaga in each of the last three House elections, and each of the last two Legislative Assembly elections.
Booth Information
The other area where the ALP has performed strongly is in Ivanhoe. More like the areas in adjacent Kooyong, Melbourne and Batman than much of the rest of the seat, this area has swung against the Howard government, largely on social issues, and on aggregate gave stronger support to Latham-led Labor in 2004 than to the dominant Bracks Government in 2006. While this is the smallest area of the seat the large swing towards the ALP since 1998 (from 0.45% below state average TPP to 6.32% above in two elections) has played a large part in stabilizing the ALP’s support across the seat. Ivanhoe – as well as Eltham – make up the strongest areas of Green support in the seat, with the seat consistently in the top ten in the state. Prior to their implosion, the Democrats also achieved strong support, especially in Senate elections. Based on the difference between House and derived Senate TPP’s these voters would appear to be predominately ALP voters compared with the state average.
Booth Information
The major factor the various areas of Jagajaga share appears to be consistent federal election performances, despite the national trend to the Howard Government. While the areas on the Eastern and South-Western fringes of the seat have largely drifted to the ALP on social issues, the large central areas have failed to match the typical suburban move to the Government and have helped Jagajaga move from 2nd-most marginal ALP seat in Victoria in 1996 to 8th-most marginal in 2004. If the ALP perform strongly the seat is likely to fall a little down the rankings, but it would be a large surprise to see a swing match the state average either way, and the seat should stay safe.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Liberals could win if…
- They win three of the five major areas of the seat – would require Greensborough (Margin 4.5%) or Ivanhoe (Margin 5.0%) to give the Liberals a majority
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