Blog CemeteryIsaacs
October 18th 2007 00:54
Booth Information
Encompassing the coastal suburbs from Mordialloc to Carrum, and the inland suburbs of Springvale South and Carrum Downs, Isaacs has moved strongly to the Coalition in recent years and is now the ALP's most marginal seat in Victoria. However the seat has not been won by the Coalition in any of the 16 elections noted here and the Liberals strong performance in 2004 is likely to be something of a 'high-water' mark.
Detailed Results
For a second straight federal election, 2004 saw a significant swing to the federal government. Driven by swings of almost 10% across Carrum Downs and over 6% in Springvale, the seat moved by 5.3% to the Coalition. ALP majorities were overturned in seven booths, including all four in the Carrum Downs area. In the end only the ALP's strong (although weakening) support in the Springvale area saved the seat as they lost majorities in Chelsea and Carrum Downs. The ALP polled over 60% at each of the eight Springvale booths, peaking at Dandenong South (72.54%) and Douglas (67.03%), while the Liberal's best support came in Patterson Lakes (67.32%) and Mentone (55.35%).
Booth Information
In raw figures the recent swing towards the Coalition in Isaacs has been significant. Isaacs has swung by almost 9% since the 1998 election, with every booth contested at both election moving towards the Government and the Southern areas of the seat (Chelsea and Carrum Downs) both moving by over 10%. All but the North-West corner of the seat has moved by more than the already sizeable statewide swing (4.75% since 1998).
Clearly if this swing turns out to be a trend towards the Coalition then the ALP could be in trouble in 2007 in Isaacs, regardless of the overall results. However it is a swing which has been seen before in these parts. The 2004 results almost mirror those of the 1999 state election, when the ALP performed worse against the state average (2.5% above against 2.8% above). However in state and federal elections where the ALP have performed stronger in Victoria (2006 and 1998 respectively) they have achieved even larger gains in Isaacs. To summarize, when the ALP's TPP vote moves in Victoria, it often moves further in Isaacs.
Booth Information
The one area of the seat which could threaten this would be the vastly growing booths in Carrum Downs in the seat's South-West. In addition to moving by over 10% to the Coalition since 1998, Carrum Downs also grew by 50%. State election results show the area exhibiting the signs of supporting incumbent governments, moving by almost 11% against the state average since 1999 and moving in absolute terms to the ALP in the 2006 state election, despite a statewide swing to the Coalition. What will be significant here is whether the residents of Carrum Downs maintain their strong support for the Howard Government, or whether these are the voters who are most likely to look for change.
However there are two constants in Isaacs across all elections being looked at. Since 1993 it has given the ALP above state average support, and the ALP would win the seat in all elections contested. Notwithstanding the possibility of a continued swing in the seat's growing South-West, any statewide swing to the ALP in Isaacs should see new candidate Mark Dreyfus receive a comfortable buffer.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Liberals could win Isaacs if...
- They continue to make gains in Carrum Downs (52% in Rowellyn Park (51.5% in 2004)
- They win the Edithvale booth in the seat's centre (48.92% in 2004)
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