Blog CemeteryIndi
October 14th 2007 09:54
Booth Information
Taking in the North-East corner of Victoria, Indi has been held by the non-Labor parties since 1931. Although it is the third-largest electorate by area in Victoria, almost half of the voters live in the three major towns of the seat – Benalla, Wangaratta and Wodonga. This has enabled the Liberals to comfortably hold off the rare National challenge launched when a change of member has occurred, and they have held it since 1977.
Detailed Results
Indi has hovered between 3rd and 5th in terms of Coalition TPP at each federal election since 1993, and the seat is one of the safest in Victoria. At the 2004 state election the seat was one of the few very safe Liberal seats to move to the Coalition beyond the state swing, with the party’s booth dominance almost being made complete through large swings at the booths in Beechworth and Chiltern which had voted ALP majorities at the previous two state elections. In fact the ALP was left with just one booth where they won a majority – at tiny Stanley (213 votes in 2004) where they managed a majority of 11 votes.
Booth Information
Overall the seat has moved slightly to the Coalition since 1993, although the movement has been somewhat dispersed. At the large booths in Wangaratta, Wodonga, Benalla, Mansfield and Myrtleford, swings above the state average have been the norm, with the swing especially large in the outer areas of Wodonga. However in the smaller booths dotted across the seat the swing has often been the other way, although in most cases this has merely meant a drop off from what was a very high base vote for the Coalition and in no way demonstrates any real swing to the ALP.
Booth Information
The Coalition’s performance at Legislative Assembly elections came close to matching the 2004 federal performance. Here there is clear split between the NE corner of the map around Wodonga, Myrtleford and Beechworth, that predominately gave a higher vote for the Coalition in 2004 than in 2006, and the rest of the seat which gave a stronger vote for the state coalition than federal coalition. The Coalition has held onto every state seat that is included in Indi at each of the last three general elections, although in a 2000 by-election the ALP did briefly win Benalla in the seat’s South-West.
Booth Information
The Liberal Party’s Sophie Mirabella looks safely ensconced in Indi and it is highly unlikely there will be any significant swing in the seat in 2007. The only real chance that the Liberal’s hold on Indi may weaken are if an independent candidate with strong personal recognition can gain a large vote, or the outside chance that the Nationals could take the seat once Mirabella retires. Interestingly in this case, the last two state elections have seen National and Liberal candidates stand against one another, with the Nationals winning at the lower house (although this can largely be attributable to support for the local members), and getting about 23% of the vote in the 2006 Upper House election. But as long as Mirabella stands, and the coalition remains intact, it is unlikely that this will be more than an academic point.
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