Blog CemeteryHolt
October 7th 2007 05:16
Booth Information
Taking in the booming outer South-Eastern Melbourne suburbs from Endeavour Hills to Cranbourne, Holt surprised everybody by almost falling to the Liberals at the 2004 federal election. The ALP’s eastern-most Victorian seat, it is one they will have to hold onto to have any real chance of winning back any of the Liberal-held seats in Eastern Melbourne. The key question will be whether the seat continues to trend towards the Coalition, or whether it bounces back towards something like its state election performances.
Detailed Results
Booth Information
The defining trend in recent results in Holt has been large swings to incumbent governments at both state and federal levels. Whereas federally the seat’s margin fell from over 9% over the state average in 1996 to under 2.8% in 2004, and seen the ALP’s ranking in the seat in TPP fall from 11th in 2001 to 18th in 2004, the opposite trend has occurred at the state level, with the seat rising from under 1.5% above the state average in 1999 to almost 10% in 2006.
Booth Information
The seat has also risen in rank at the state level from 16th to 9th over the same time period. In both spheres, the trend has been stronger in Holt than in the neighbouring ALP seats of Isaacs and Bruce. Interestingly for the 2007 election, the move tends to follow rather than pre-empt a change of government, leaving it unlikely that this will see any major swing to the ALP in 2007 regardless of how strong the federal party appears to be performing.
Booth Information
As the table below shows, the biggest areas of growth for the Howard Government have tended to occur in those areas of the seat which have grown the fastest. While the seat has grown by 28,000 voters in the last five federal elections, the growth has been heavily skewed towards the areas of the seat south of the Princes Highway. Thus the central booths from Hampton Park to Berwick have almost doubled since 1993, and Cranbourne North has grown by two-thirds.
What was once semi-rural areas have now become full suburbs of Melbourne, and have provided large swings towards both the Howard and Bracks governments. Interestingly at the state level the central area of the seat has fallen slightly less than the rest of the seat, although still by far more than the state average. While the seat is clearly in a state of flux, this would suggest that if the seat settles down the area around Narre Warren may provide the coalition with a higher level of support than it previously did.
The key to Holt may be the statewide, or even nationwide figures. If the Howard Government was still clearly in the ascendency Holt could have fallen to the Coalition as the strengths of incumbency support would have stayed throughout the southern and central booths. With Rudd now seemingly on top the test now appears to be whether suburbs like Narre Warren and Cranbourne North that have tended to follow incumbent governments stick with the Howard Government or move to the resurgent opposition. Because so much of the seat has followed this pattern Holt arguably provides the best case study of whether the support for incumbent leaders stays strong where it appears the government is likely to end.
The Liberals have every right to think they have a chance of pinching the seat after gaining such a large swing at the last election. However with the likelihood of a stronger statewide performance pushing up the ALP performance in the seat Labor would be hopeful of an increased majority in the seat, although recent history would suggest that a significant swing to them will have to wait until the election after they secure power.
What to Watch For…
The Liberals could win Holt if…
- Their statewide TPP stays similar to 2004
- They make further gains relative to TPP in the Central Areas of the seat
A swing to the ALP through these areas could translate to other swings through newly established suburbs, although few of these are marginal (maybe Langwarrin at a very big stretch)
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