Kate SlackHinkler
November 18th 2007 21:45
Booth Information
Centred on Bundaberg in Central Queensland, Hinkler has been held by the Coalition's Paul Neville since 1993. The seat generally sees the Coalition perform a little better than their state average and the addition of the fast-growing Hervey Bay region has seen their margin jump to over 9%. However in previous elections Hervey Bay has been prone to very large swings and if the ALP can combine a strong performance there with a good overall swing across Queensland they will see themselves as having a rough chance in the seat.
Past Results
On the whole Hinkler has been quite stable in recent elections, with the Coalition winning all five House elections and polling around 1% above their state average in all but one. In the 2004 election, the Coalition gained over 3% to push the seat out of the marginal category. The swing was strongest in Hervey Bay (4.7%) and weakest in the rural and inland areas of the seat (1.16%) although the Coalition did not lose ground in many booths. The ALP won just one booth outside of Bundaberg (Givelda with 52.02% of the TPP vote), while losing majorities in the two biggest booths in central Bundaberg and winning just six booths across the seat as a whole.
Booth Information
But while there has been steady movement in line with the state average at the seatwide level the swing has been dispersed geographically across the seat. Despite their setback in 2004, the ALP still hold something of a stronghold in Bundaberg itself, which makes up around half of the seat's population. At each House election the ALP have polled aboce both state and seat averages in Bundaberg, winning the central parts of the city at three of the five House elections. The inland and rural booths which make up around 10% of the population have also been reasonably stable, with the ALP improving slightly against the state average vote since 1996 without seriously achieving a majority. The ALP would definately need to win Bundaberg, and probably the rural regions, in order to win the seat.
Booth Information
This leaves the Hervey Bay region on the south coast of the seat. This has been the most volatile and fastest growing section of the seat, with 50% more voters in 2004 than in 1993 and swings of 11% to the Nationals, 16% to Labor, 8% to the Nationals and 4.7% to the Nationals at the last four House elections. Some of this volatility is sure to be caused by the high vote for One Nation in 1998, although this wouldn't explain why Hervey Bay is the area where the vote has been most changeable when One Nation's vote that year was little more than the average for the seat as a whole.
Booth Information
Despite being the Coalition's strongest area in 2004, Hervey Bay's status as newly transferred to Hinkler, and its history of electoral volatility, suggests it does offer some hopes for the resurgent ALP. However the hope that Labor could take advantage of the lower level of incumbent support available to the Coalition in the area must be minimized by widespread reports of Labor candidate Garry Parr's altercation with the parents of a British soldier who live in the electorate. While the electoral statistics may suggest that the area is ripe for a large swing events on the ground may have conspired to minimize the ALP's hopes.
State results are not overly helpful for the ALP, altough it is a very mixed bag. Across the seat the ALP's vote has plummeted since 2001, losing 15% and 8 places in terms of the state wide ranking. This included a 23% drop in the rural areas which saw the federal ALP poll almost 10% higher than the state party despite a state wide difference of almost 12% the other way. However the ALP has held a consistent majority in Hervey Bay, polling 15% higher at the state level despite a significant swing in 2004 that was largely caused by a high level of exhausted votes from One Nation and the City Country Alliance in 2001.
Booth Information
But while this shows that the Hervey Bay area can provide the ALP with solid support it would take a massive swing to make the area a positive for Labor in 2007. While the ALP are said to be gaining support amongst the elderly voters who are prevalent in the Hervey Bay region the misadventures of the Labor candidate is unlikely to play well and may be all that is needed for the Coalition to hang on. Recent results show that predictions of the Hervey Bay area are fraught with danger. But I would be surprised if the ALP matches their overall swing in Hinkler. If they manage to win the seat, it will be on the back of a very big overall win.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Hinkler if...
- They win the Bundaberg East booth (44.49% TPP in 2004)
- They win the Urangan booth (41.16% TPP in 2004)
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