Blog CemeteryHerbert
November 11th 2007 11:18
Booth Information
Centred on Townsville in Far North Queensland, Herbert has been drifting to the Coalition against the Queensland average over the last fifteen years. But despite the seat being one of the Coalition's strongest in Queensland in recent polls, Labor look a serious chance of winning the seat if they can achieve a big statewide swing.
Past Results
Herbert has drifted slowly but consistently towards the Coalition, with the ALP's TPP vote falling from 4% above the statewide average in 1993 to under 1% at the last election. After taking the seat in the Howard landslide of 1996, the Coalition managed to hang on in 1998 before seeing their margin extend to a normally comfortable 6.3% in 2004. The Coalition has performed better than the statewide average at three of the four elections contested, and while the seat's ranking against other Queensland seats hasn't moved, the Coalition did manage to gain almost 50% of the primary vote in 2004.
Booth Information
In the last election Herbert was the Coalition's fourth best performing seat in Queensland, gaining over double the statewide swing of 2.2% to give member Peter Lindsay a margin that almost equalled his 1996 result. The Coalition won 27 of the 38 booths contested, adding nine extra booths over the 2001 result while losing just one booth won that year. This included every booth in the Thuringowa area in the seat's South, and regaining a majority in the Mundingburra area in the centre of the seat. The Coalition's polled over 65% at Annandale, Annandale East and Riverside, while the ALP's best booths were at Palm Island and Townsville South. The ALP did not win a booth in the Southern half of the booth.
Booth Information
The swing has been at its most significant in the booths in the seat's South. In 2004 the Thuringowa area moved to the Coalition by over six per cent, with three booths in the seat's far South each moving by over 8% and falling to the Coalition. Together this area of the seat is the seat's fastest growing section, increasing by a third since 1993 while moving by over 10% to the Coalition. Conversely this area may be the key for Labor's chances of winning the seat back. Being a fast growing area, it is likely to be more susceptible to a rebound to Labor after the interest rates election of 2004.
Booth Information
Recent state elections have been wildly divergent of federal results. At the 2006 poll the state Labor party gained over 5% against a 0.5% swing across the state, pushing the seat up from 17th in Queensland for the ALP at the previous two state polls to 5th. Interestingly both the swing at state election level, and the overall difference between federal and state polls was biggest in the Thuringowa area, with the difference between federal and state results slowly subsiding closer to the centre of Townsville. While giving the usual caution about making federal predictions based on state polls the possibility that the Thuringowa area (and around Mundingburra, which has exhibited similar trends, if to less of an extent) will move heavily to the ALP must be considered.
Booth Information
There are two possibilities for Herbert. The Coalition have been slowly improving against an already improving statewide average, and with four-term member Peter Lindsay deciding to stand again they will be hoping to be able to continue their improvement and withstand any significant swing to the ALP across Queensland. However the volatility between federal and state results in a seat which fits the mould of outer suburban seats across the country suggests a bounceback to Labor which, if combined with any significant statewide swing, will see the seat fall back to Labor. If the ALP can make good gains in the growing, Southern areas of the seat, expect to see Herbert as a key seat on election night.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win if...
- They win the Aitkenvale booth (43.74% TPP in 2004) OR
- They win the Kirwan South booth (42.70% TPP in 2004)
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