Blog CemeteryGorton
October 2nd 2007 11:09
Booth Information
Taking in the booming Melbourne suburbs west of the Western Ring Road, Gorton is one of the state’s fastest growing electorates. Only formed for the 2004 elections, this population growth means that it is highly likely that the electorate will be significantly changed in the next redistribution. In the meantime, Gorton is one in a string of safe Labor electorates west of Melbourne.
Detailed Results
Although the first election for the seat of Gorton saw the ALP’s margin fall by almost 6%, the ALP was in no danger of being seriously challenged. Despite the swing, the Liberals still carried just one booth (Keilor, Lib TPP 59.63%) with the ALP winning two of the three areas, and over half of the booths, of the seat with over 70% of the TPP vote. The ALP’s strongest booths were Glengala (77.48%), Kings Park (75.98%) and St Albans West (75.24%), while the Liberals polled solidly at Hillside (46.07%), Taylors Lakes (44%) and Taylors Lakes North (45.96%). The Greens failed to poll their statewide average at any booth in the seat, polling strongest at the small Albion booth (6.61%).
Booth Information
The number of voters who voted in the booths which constitute Gorton increased from just over 50,000 in the 1993 House election to over 80,000 in 2004. All of these extra voters have been the north and west of the seat, as new suburbs have risen in first Taylor’s Lakes and Sydenham, later Hillside and Caroline Springs. When the areas north of Taylors Rd are combined with Caroline Springs, these new developments have increased their share of the total population from 27% in 1993 to 47% in 2004.
This has had an effect on the recent voting history of the seat. Since 1998 the Coalition has gained 10% in TPP terms over the whole of the seat. But while there has been a discernible shift in the older parts of the seat such as St Albans (10.5% swing) and Sunshine West (10.3%), the primary factor behind the swing has been that the growth areas in the seat have also been those areas which have been the least solid in their support of the ALP. After the Liberal-support enclave of Keilor, the next three strongest supporters of the Coalition have also been the fastest growing - Hillside, Sydenham and Caroline Springs.
Booth Information
This helps to give the indication that the Coalition is closing the margin in Gorton. But while they have been more successful in gaining support in these newer areas than in the areas in the seat’s East, the ALP has still been winning these booths, if with 55 or 60% rather than 75% or 80%. In very rough terms what has occurred since 1993 is that there has been a large influx of voters which have divided themselves 50-50 between the ALP and the Coalition. This does help make the Coalition’s TPP figure look relatively healthy but it doesn’t mean that the margin has decreased in real vote terms. In contrast, it could be argued that the ALP have performed reasonably well as this growth has occurred at a time when the ALP’s overall fortunes (at federal level) have been poor. Gorton has stayed in the ALP’s top four Victorian seats in terms of TPP, and helped by a poor minor party vote in the seat, has been the ALP’s best performed seats in terms of primary vote.
Booth Information
The growing areas of Gorton also conform to the tendency to support incumbent governments which has been similar in other growing suburbs of Melbourne. As the table below shows, state ALP polled 7.5% higher in Gorton in 2006 than they did in the 2004 federal election. This figure was around 3% higher than the state average but not dissimilar to other safe ALP seats. However the newer suburbs had a far higher difference between federal and state results; there were more voters who voted Liberal at federal level and Labor at state level.
Of course, in terms of Gorton there appears little risk of these new booths giving the Coalition any chance of winning the seat. As stated above, even with the Coalition at their strongest federally in 2004 the ALP won all but the Keilor booth. Gorton’s outer suburbs may provide some indicators for more marginal Melbourne seats but it looks one of the ALP’s safest in 2007.
What to watch for…
- The TPP in the Hillside booths – were the most volatile and should indicate the wider range of any possible swing in Gorton, as well as an indicator of any greater outer Melbourne-wide swing (54% in 2004)
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