Blog CemeteryGoldstein
September 27th 2007 12:23
Booth Information
Taking In the affluent inner Southern beachside suburbs of Melbourne, Goldstein (and it’s predecessor Balaclava) has always been won by either the Liberal Party or one of it’s urban non-Labor ancestors since federation. The seat now includes a significant area of suburbs further inland but the relative affluence of these areas has meant that Goldstein has never been under any real threat.
Detailed Results
For a second straight election, Goldstein swung to the Coalition by less than the statewide average. In this case the small swing officially pushed the seat into the safe category for the Liberals, although the rise of support for the Coalition in outer suburban Melbourne did see Goldstein slip three places in the Coalition’s statewide ranking. A slight growth of Coalition support in the more even areas of the seat was almost completely offset by the small increase in ALP support in the areas of strongest support for the Coalition.
Booth Information
The upshot of this was that, as in 2001, the Liberals won every suburb in the electorate, and regained three booths to go with the four booths gained at the previous election. The Coalition polled over 70% at three booths in the Brighton area while picking up over 60% in a number of other booths. The ALP won just five booths – two in Highett and Glenhuntly, and the other in Brighton East – by less than 5%, with their TPP peaking at 53.91% at the Moorabbin West booth. The Greens picked up over 10% in six booths, peaking at Elsternwick South (13.1%) and Carnegie (11.27%).
Goldstein has stayed retained a stable overall TPP vote since 1993, with the Liberals achieve a constant TPP between 9% and 12% above the state average, and an overall TPP between 58% and 61%. While this has seen the seat drop behind outer suburban seats such as Aston and Menzies in terms of Coalition TPP ranking to fall from 6th to 9th in 2004, the seat has avoided the larger swings that have affected other safe inner Melbourne seats such as Kooyong and Higgins.
Much of this can be attributed to the lower Green vote than in either of those seats, which can be attributed to the more suburban nature of much of the seat’s West and South. Thus the Greens primary vote is only just above the state-wide average in Goldstein, while the Liberals were able to secure a period-high primary vote in the 2004 House election.
Booth Information
The coastal areas of Goldstein almost define blue-ribbon for the Liberals in Victoria. Spreading from the traditional wealth of Brighton down the coast past Sandringham to Beaumaris, the areas have provided a solid base of support for the Liberals at both state and federal level. In particular, the northern beach areas around Brighton, and the southern beaches around Black Rock and Beaumaris, have followed three interesting trends in recent elections. They have been the strongest areas of Liberal support in the seat (around 66% in Brighton, and 63% in the Southern Beaches in both 2004 and 2006), they have seen 3-4% TPP swings against the federal Liberal party since 1993, and they have strongly supported the struggling state party, especially in 2006.
Booth Information
Thus, in many booths they provided state Liberals with a higher TPP in 2006 than federal Liberals in 2004 despite their 5% statewide difference. What this suggests is that while there may be a slight drift to Labor in the coastal areas it is hardly enough to get them excited about their chances for victory, and is just likely to be a reaction to a strong federal government that will revert to strong loyalty to a opposition party even if the state-wide TPP suggests the ALP are in with a chance in this area.
Booth Information
The other large area of the state is the inland suburbs predominately to the west of the Nepean Hwy. Incorporating the suburbs from Highett through Bentleigh and up to Carnegie and Glenhuntly, this area has stayed just above the Coalition’s state average TPP at both federal and state level. In contrast to the bayside suburbs, this area has swung to the Howard government since 1993 (although by little more than the state average), while strongly supporting the Bracks government, especially in 2006. Largely on the back of 10% differentials in Bentleigh, Glenhuntly and McKinnon, the area as a whole provided above the statewide average TPP to Labor in 2006 for the first time at either level in the period covered.
The contradictions between the coastal and western areas of Goldstein shouldn’t overshadow the seat’s solid support for the Liberal party. At all but the 2006 Legislative Assembly election the Liberals have gained above state average TPP support in all four regions of the seat at every election covered, and even breaking down further to suburban levels, only Glenhuntly and Highett (6 elections of 16) have threatened to provide above average support to the ALP. The western areas have provided a good indicator for statewide results in recent elections and should therefore be paid attention to, but due to the Coalition’s solid base it would take a massive swing for Goldstein to be remotely in danger.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
- 50% TPP for ALP in Western booths (Highett to Glenhuntly) (currently 52.93%). For two reasons:
o Due to the reasons history as a bellwether of the state, it could suggest a statewide swing to Labor. If not…
o it could suggest that the Western area is turning to the ALP in line with the 2006 Assembly result.
(Clearly the less ideal situation for the ALP)
| 51 |
| Vote |
Subscribe to this blog
