Blog CemeteryGippsland
September 1st 2007 03:07
Booth Information
Taking in the eastern wedge of Victoria, Gippsland stretches from the heights of the Victorian Alps to the ninety mile beach and across to Cape Howe in the state’s far east. Held by the Coalition since its formation, the seat appeared marginal before the 2004 election before a strong coalition performance pushed their margin out to over 7%.
Detailed Results
Gippsland is one of Victoria’s largest seats by population and is one of only two held by the National Party. However the seat is more provincial than rural, with large tracts of sparsely populated areas in the Great Dividing Range and - to a lesser extent - South Gippsland dominated demographically by the eastern portion of the Latrobe Valley around Morwell and Traralgon in the seat’s west, and the sizeable country towns of Sale in the seat’s centre, and Bairnsdale and Lakes Entrance in the seat’s East.
The 2004 federal election saw the Nationals’ consolidate their hold on Gippsland, almost tripling their margin and almost receiving a majority of primary votes for the first time since 1996. Big swings in the Latrobe Valley and Lakes Area saw the Nationals sweep all five booths at Traralgon for the first time measured federally and win a number of booths they hadn’t won in 1996. In all the Coalition gained new majorities in ten booths to halve the number of booths carried by the ALP and gained booths in all but the Great Dividing Range area of the seat, where they lost the minute booth at Bonang. The Coalition won five rural booths with over 75% of the TPP vote, peaking at Denison (84.85%) and Nambrok (84.02%) to the west of Sale. The ALP’s solitary gain was the 39-voter booth at Bonang and even their strongest booths at Morwell (Morwell North 63.14%, Morwell Central 61.70% and Morwell Estate 61.14%) and Churchill (63.91%) swung considerably towards the Coalition. The collapse of the One Nation vote and the lack of a strong independent candidate reduced their combined vote by over 7% and meant that both major parties primary vote increased, although the extra primary votes flowed almost exclusively towards the Nationals.
Booth Information
The seat has shown a high propensity to vote for independent candidates. The state seat of Gippsland East, which runs from Maffra to the NSW border, has comfortably elected independent candidate Craig Ingram at each of the last three state elections. While this hasn’t been replicated at the federal level, the seat has been ranked among the top 5 seats in Victoria for independent voting in each of the last five federal elections. Theoretically, Gippsland could be ripe for an independent candidate to threaten as it is more of a single community than many other regional seats, although the fact that the major parties are close would make it difficult to split them and make the final count. (The upshot of this for the federal seat is that TPP measurements from Legislative Assembly elections are sketchy at best, with the best studies being based on the Legislative Council elections.)
At the western edge of the seat, the towns of Morwell and Traralgon form the ALP’s strongest area of support in the seat. Traditionally not part of the seat of Gippsland, this part of the Latrobe Valley was expected to provide the ALP with a serious chance of winning the seat three years ago. But while Labor did carry the area, they have suffered a sizeable drop in their vote since 1993 and moved the furthest to the Coalition in 2004. The Coalition carried all five Traralgon booths and the ALP’s TPP in Morwell slumped to under 60%. At the most recent state election, the Latrobe Valley booths bucked the seatwide trend and swung – albeit marginally – to the Coalition, although this was by far less than the statewide trend.
Booth Information
Instead it has been the Eastern parts of the seat which have drifted away from the Howard Government. In the 1998 election these areas were among the strongest supporters of One Nation – which together with independent candidates polled 24% in the Sale area and almost 30% in the Lakes area in the far east – which contributed largely to the TPP swing at that election (11.5 for Lakes area, 9.2% for Sale area). Interestingly this hasn’t gone back to the government, which has seen an improvement in absolute terms but no greater than the state average despite the collapse of support for One Nation. The swing here was actually less than the seat’s average, despite the ALP forests policy which was unpopular with timber industries such as Gippsland’s east.
The seat has performed in contrast to the state trend at each of the last three state elections. After voting heavily against the Kennett government in 1999 – the one election where on current boundaries the ALP would win the seat – the vote swung back to the Coalition in the Labor landslide of 2002 before moving slightly towards the ALP in the tighter 2006 election. Against the state average, Gippsland swung 10.7% towards the Coalition in 2002, but then swung 3.5% in the last state election.
Booth Information
The 2004 House and 2006 Legislative Council elections both gave the Coalition a 7% TPP vote above the state average. But while this does appear to be something of a par score, the seat has been susceptible to volatility in either direction. While the ALP may be hoping to make up ground lost from the unpopular forestry policy of 2004, that elections results suggest limited votes would come from here, while the hope that 2007 might mirror 1999 appears unlikely as there appears no suggestion that the Coalition is as unpopular in regional areas as the Kennett government clearly was. Gippsland is a tricky seat to accurately predict at the best of times, and with the ALP in the ascendency any seat with a margin of this magnitude appears in play. However, I would expect the Nationals to hold the seat.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR…
The ALP needs to…
- Win each Traralgon booth (0 of 5 in 2004, biggest Nat TPP 56.1%)
- Gain 45% of the TPP in Lakes Entrance (37.7% in 2004, but 46% in 2006 Upper House)
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