Blog CemeteryGellibrand
August 26th 2007 03:05
Booth Information
Located just to the west of Melbourne's CBD, Gellibrand has been comfortably held by the ALP since its formation since 1949. At most recent elections it has been one of the ALP's four safest Victorian seats, and with the Greens more likely to challenge in Batman and Wills (the two seats in which the ALP performed better in 2004) Gellibrand is the Victorian seat the ALP are the least likely to lose.
Detailed Result History
The ALP sustained a swing of over 5.5% in the 2004 federal election, seeing their margin for the seat slip below 20% for the first time measured here in House of Representatives elections. The swing was focused on the areas furthest away from the city, with booths in Maidstone and Braybrook in the seat's North swinging by over 10%, and in Altona Meadows in the South-West swinging by over 8%. Despite this, the ALP carried every booth, with their TPP vote peaking at Altona East (73.34%), Footscray South (73.25%), Footscray Central (72.05%) and Footscray East (71.43%). The Coalition polled over 45% of the TPP at Maribyrnong (47.99%) and Williamstown West (46.79%). The Greens polled over 9%, with their vote most strongest in the Eastern booths from Footscray to Williamstown. Their strongest booth was at Footscray South (19.08%).
Booth Information
ALP member Nicola Roxon has sustained a sizeable swing against her at each of the last two elections which has seen her margin decrease from 21% above the state average in 1998 to 16% in 2004. This swing has been strongest at the edges of the seat - Altona Meadows in the seat's South-West has swung by almost 12%, Maidstone in its North-West by 16%, and Footscray in the North-East by 13%. But this swing has had no major impact on the ALP's ranking in Gellibrand, with the seat actually improving its ranking despite suffering a swing of over 5.5% in 2004 as other very safe ALP seats swung to the Howard government. Further, at the state level most booths have swung to the ALP by more than the state average since 1999, with only the small eastern suburb of Spotswood bucking this trend. It appears far more likely that Gellibrand is very susceptible to pro-Government swings, although of course from a very high ALP base which makes the concept of a Coalition victory in Gellibrand appear extremely remote.
Booth Information
The only area which the Liberals have been threatening to carry has been in Williamstown. Somewhat different from the rest of the seat demographically and economically the beachside suburb had moved towards the Coalition by 5% between 1993 and 1998. But while this trend has continued in absolute terms since 1998, the swing has been half of the seat wide swing and barely above the state wide swing. Further the area has been swinging towards state Labor since 1999.
Booth Information
The Greens are strong in some areas of Gellibrand, performing above the state average in most elections and polling upwards of 15% in Footscray's booths in 2004. However the concept of them splitting the major parties and vacuuming up Liberal votes appears as remote as the Coalition's chances of winning the seat. The heavily defeated state Liberal Party still comfortably relegated the Greens into third place by almost 8% in the lower house and by over 7% in the upper House in last year's state elections. The problem for the Greens is that while they can challenge the Liberals in the Eastern booths, they poll well below their state average in Altona and Braybrook in the seat's West.
Booth Information
Gellibrand staying with the ALP is as close to a certainty as exists in metropolitan Melbourne. The only major interest will be whether those areas which have supported the incumbent Howard and Bracks governments will swing towards Rudd, as they may indicate a wider swing which could provide gains for the ALP elsewhere in Melbourne.
What to Watch For:
- A swing for the ALP in Altona Meadows - most similar to Craigieburn, Langwarrin, etc. ALP got 65% in 2004
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