Blog CemeteryFlinders
August 25th 2007 09:22
Booth Information
Flinders has almost always been a solid conservative seat, only having been held by the ALP on three occasions, and has been represented by a number of high-profile Conservative MPs. While on its present boundaries the ALP did get within 3.5% of a majority in the 1998 federal election, the Liberals performed strongly in 2001 and 2004 and the seat now ranks amongst their safest in Victoria.
Detailed Result History
While geographically Flinders is divided equally between the southern reaches of the Mornington Peninsula and the western part of Gippsland, the vast majority of its population runs along the coast of the Port Phillip Bay from Mount Martha to Portsea, and along the North-West coast of Westernport Bay from Baxter to Hastings. Not quite suburban Melbourne, but far from rural areas, these areas are quite distinct from each other but both provide a consistent majority to the Coalition which has grown substantially in recent elections. While West Gippsland has provided steady improvement for the Coalition since 1998 it has seen it’s traditional position as the strongest Coalition supporters challenged at federal level, and surpassed at state level.
For a second straight election, Flinders saw a swing to the Coalition above the state average. All three major areas of the seat swung to Greg Hunt as the Liberals almost doubled the ALP’s primary vote and pushed their margin comfortably above 10% for the first time measured. All but eight booths swung towards the Coalition, with the biggest swings strongest at Hastings (9.42%), Mornington East (7.79%) and Crib Point (8.07%). Overall the Coalition’s strongest booths were at Kernot (87.01%), Moorooduc (76.31%) and Bayles (75.22%). The ALP saw eight of the nine booths carried by them in the 2001 election fall to the Coalition, but they did carry Shoreham for the only time measured here, as well as making sizeable gains at Flinders, Balnarring and Portsea. The Greens’ primary vote of 6.27% was over one percent below their statewide average, but they did poll over 10% in a number of booths, peaking at Shoreham (15.30%), Balnarring (12.37%) and Red Hill (12.36%)
Booth Information
The Westernport booths have been the biggest source of the increased Liberal margin in Flinders, with the area increasing by almost 7% in size since 1998 and by over 9% in TPP vote for the Coalition. The more southern Westernport coast from Balnarring to Shoreham has tended to turn towards the ALP, although this has been cold comfort for Labor as they have only moved marginally from very pro-Liberal bases and still provide majorities to the Coalition. But a number of these areas have swung from marginal status to providing sizeable majorities to the ALP.
In other seats on Melbourne’s outskirts swings of this magnitude have often been part of an apparent incumbency vote which has also seen large swings in favour of the state Labor government. In contrast, this effect has been far more inconsistent in Flinders, with only Pearcedale and Bittern moving by more than the state average at state level since 1999, and the region as a whole moving by less than 1% more than the state average. There is a very large difference between the federal and state level TPP vote throughout the Westernport area but this appears to be caused far more by the swing to Howard than a combined ‘incumbent swing’ noticed elsewhere. This suggests that the base vote for these suburbs may have moved to the Coalition, and the extent that this ‘incumbent swing’ may have an effect in the 2007 election may be muted in this area of Flinders.
Booth Information
The Port Phillip Bay coastline has also moved to the Coalition since 1998, although much of this is retaking votes lost in 1998 rather than the breaking of new ground electorally. This area of the seat has been more stable in population terms, with growth limited to areas on the expanding urban fringe in Mount Martha. While they have gained votes in all but the inland booth at Red Hill, the size of the swing has been selective; with the Coalition gaining most in the booths which the ALP had won in 1998 (Rosebud, Rye and Tootgarook) and in growing Mount Martha but more steady in their traditional strongholds (e.g. Portsea and Sorrento).
Once again at state level the swings to Howard have rarely been replicated at state level by incumbent swings to Bracks. In fact the Port Phillip Bay booths was once of the brightest points for the Baillieu campaign in 2006. Only the Mount Martha North and Mornington East booths – both shared with Dunkley in 2004 – providing the ALP with a higher vote compared to the state average in the 2006 state election than in 2004 federal campaign, with a number of the smaller booths giving the Baillieu state party a higher vote than the Howard federal campaign and the area as a whole giving a mere 1.1% higher TPP to the Coalition in 2004 than 2006.
Booth Information
The 1998 result appeared to augur in a new period electorally for Flinders, with the seat seemingly trending into the ALP’s grasp. But while most seats just beyond Melbourne’s urban fringes have tended to swing towards the ALP, Flinders has moved towards the coalition to the extent that it would appear beyond the wildest hopes of the ALP to win it. Both state and federal results tend to back this up, by drawing the picture of a seat dominated by two coastlines; one which is solidly Liberal, and the other which appears to be trending that way.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR…
The ALP may have a chance if…
- They make very large gains in the growing booths from Baxter to Hastings – I can’t see them making up much in the rural or Port Phillip Bay areas. They would need to go very close to winning (TPP 49%) either Somerville booth (LIB TPP 66.4% and 64.1% in 2004)
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