Blog CemeteryEden-Monaro
November 12th 2007 06:03
Booth Information
Taking in farmlands, mountains, coastline and suburbs, Eden-Monaro stretches from Tumut across the Great Dividing Range to the NSW Sapphire Coast, and up to the satellite city of Queanbeyan. Renowned for having been held by the Government of the day after eery election since 1972, Eden-Monaro has taken on talismanic qualities; before the campaign the PM advised his party worried about federal polls that all was not lost because they looked good to hold Eden-Monaro.
Past Results
Cliched it may be, but there is an element of truth to the theory that Eden-Monaro acts as a good indicator of larger trends. At each federal election covered here it has been extremely steady, with the Coalition consistently polling slightly above their NSW average and its position in relation to other NSW seats always falling between 24th and 27th for the ALP(out of 49). This also doesn't completely do the seat justice as much of the margin between the state average and the Eden-Monaro result is courtesy of the newly added areas in the east of the seat around Tumut, which are the strongest for the Coalition in the seat and thus have added some buffer to their margin.
Booth Information
The seat can be seen as three different voting blocks, which have offered different voting patterns at recent elections. The coastal booths along the Sapphire Coast from Moruya to Eden have been the strongest area for the ALP in recent elections, with their vote defying a statewide swing of over 6% since 1993 to lose under 2%. Across the region the ALP have done better than their state average, with the Northern area around Moruya both moving around 4% against the state wide average. However the star performer for the ALP has been the middle coastal area around Narooma and Bermagui, which has as a whole improved for the ALP since 1993.
Stronger for the Coalition has been the mountain areas stretching from Cooma across to Tumbarumba and Tumut. The ALP managed slight majorities across the region in the 1993 election but suffered swings of over 10% in 1996. While they picked up some votes in 1998 they fell back below 40% of the TPP vote across the region in 2004 and have dropped to almost 9% below the statewide vote. As mentioned above, the Tumut region was newly added to the seat, and it is this area which is the ALP's weakest in the seat - losing 13% of the vote between 1993 and 2004. Their one hope in the region is that now that it has moved from the safe National seat of Farrer to a far more marginal seat the ALP may reap the benefits of extra resources being put into the region.
Booth Information
That leaves the most urban area of the seat, around Queanbeyan and into the Southern Highlands at Bungendore and Braidwood. This is traditionally the ALP's strongest voting area of the seat, with the ALP's support in Queanbeyan generally balancing the Coalition's strengths in the more rural parts of the seat. However it too fell sharply in the 1996 election, losing almost 4% against the state average (although falling at a similar level to the rest of the seat). After the ALP consoldated their vote slightly in the 1998 and 2001 elections, the Queanbeyan region saw the Coalition gain almost 2% in 2001, a gain that was largely responsible for the 1.1% swing in their favour across the seat. The hope for Labor is that this swing was a response to the interest rates based campaigning of the Coalition in 2004 and it may be possible to take back.
Booth Information
At the federal level Eden=Monaro has long been renowned as a bellwether seat. However recent state results have somewhat bucked this trend, with the strongly-supported Labor government unable to carry the seat at two of the three state elections contested. Interestingly though, the ALP have improved their vote solidly against a declining state average and, if federal boundaries were replicated at state level, would have won the seat in the 2007 state election. This poll put the ALP's state election vote in Eden-Monaro within 2% of the state average, almost mirroring the federal poll. However there were discrepancies across the seat, with state Labor performing relatively better around Queanbeyan and in the Snowy Mountains, and the state Liberals performing stronger on the Sapphire Coast, where they polled higher in absolute terms despite a differential across the state of over 4%. This mixed bag is typical of the seat and suggests that if the ALP are able to make ground across the suburban and mountainous areas they may lose out in the coastal booths.
This is the dilemma about looking at Eden-Monaro, and the reason why it continually is focused on by election pundits on election night. Different voting patterns across the seat tend to balance each other out. Thus the easy prediction is to suggest that the seat will hold its course, falling dutifully if the government changes but being a key seat if the Howard Government manages to hang on. It's also most likely the correct one, with the added proviso that the ALP may make stronger gains through regaining support at the suburban booths in Queanbeyan. Most likely though, it looks like we're all going to have to endure pronouncements about the Bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro for another three years.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Eden-Monaro if...
- They win government
But also if...
- They win the Narooma booth (48.87% TPP in 2004)
- They win 57% of the TPP at Queanbeyan East (54.17% TPP in 2004)
- They gain 39% of the TPP at Tumut (35.56% in 2004)
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