Blog CemeteryDunkley
August 23rd 2007 07:46
Booth Information
Once a marginal electorate on the Southern outskirts of Melbourne, a combination of redistributions, population growth and the general outer-suburban swing to the Howard Government have made Dunkley among the Coalition’s safest Melbourne seats. Stretching from the working-class suburbs of Seaford and Frankston North across to the booming suburbs of Langwarrin and Mornington South, Dunkley is the most southerly in the line of Eastern Melbourne electorates which have swung to the Coalition over the last decade.
Detailed Result History
Liberal member Bruce Billson received a swing of over 4% to go on top of his 3.4% swing in 2001 and move Dunkley to the verge of official safe seat status. The Coalition made large gains in all areas of the seat bar Mount Eliza, which still held the most pro-Liberal booth in the seat (Mount Eliza Central, TPP of 77.74%). The Coalition gained majorities in seven extra booths to leave the ALP with majorities in a mere handful of booths, predominately in the seat’s North. The Coalition’s gains included a victory at the large Belvedere Park booth in Seaford, which counts as the Coalition’s lone TPP victory in Northern Frankston in the period measured. They also won all four Karingal booths after winning just one of 16 contests in the four House elections since 1993. The ALP was left to count the damage of a two-election swing which had resulted in nine of the 15 booths won in 1998 giving the Coalition a majority and the demise of their previous dominance in Northern Frankston to such an extent that they failed to get near 60% in any of the booths there, peaking at 57.94% at Frankston Monterey.
Booth Information
Dunkley has seen some of the biggest swings to the Liberals in Victoria over the last decade at the federal level. What has been most significant is that they have been largely confined to the areas of the seat which were generally Labor’s strongest. The Liberal’s TPP in Langwarrin has jumped from 52.5% in 1998 to 62.2%, in Seaford from 39.7% to 49.2%, in Frankston North from 28.1% to 42.3%, in Karingal from 46.5% to 54%, and in Skye from 46.5% to 59.2%. Further to this the growing area in Mornington South has seen the Liberal’s TPP grow from 54.3% to 63.3% in the same time.
Booth Information
On top of this, the proportion of the vote is moving out of those areas where Labor is strong and into those areas which are giving the Coalition unprecedented TPP majorities. On top of the swings to the Coalition which have occurred at all of these booths, the table below shows that Liberal majorities in Langwarrin and Mornington South are replacing Labor majorities in Seaford and Frankston North. It is this drift out of the poorer, pro-Labor areas into the new suburbs which have been strong supporters of the Howard Government which give the impression that the Liberal Party ‘own’ Dunkley just over a decade after it (with different boundaries) had been represented by a Labor MP.
However, state results may show this to be something of a misconception – or at least an exaggeration. There are massive variations between state and federal election results and once again they are focused on those areas around Frankston. The table on the left shows the large differences between the 2006 State and 2004 Federal election in those areas and does show that there is the potential for Labor majorities, although Frankston and Langwarrin did still stay above the Liberal TPP state average. Further it is crucial to note that the Liberals would have won – just – in an Election for Dunkley based on the 2006 results.
The reason for this, and the main reason that Dunkley is in all likelihood going to remain a Liberal seat in most circumstances, is the large block of solidly Liberal voters spreading from Frankston South down to Mornington. Of these areas only Mornington has moved at all to the Howard government since 1993, but as a whole the area still votes over 60% on TPP for the Coalition at federal level. Frankston South and Mornington did flirt with voting for Labor in the 2002 Bracks landslide when almost all Liberal federal seats would have been lost, but these areas jumped back behind the Coalition in last years election. It is this block which makes should provide the Liberals with a safe buffer against all but a major landslide.
Booth Information
How safe that buffer is will depend on whether the growing areas in Langwarrin and Mornington South will develop the same solid level of support for the Liberals. Having provided 59% support for Kennett in 1999, 54% for Bracks in 2002 and 62% for Howard in 2004, Langwarrin appears to be extremely loyal to incumbent leaders although the higher figures for Liberal leaders do suggest a slight inbuilt majority for the Coalition. Mornington East does appear to be more solidly Liberal, bouncing back from a 9% swing to Labor in the 2002 State Election to swing 11% to the Liberals in 2006. If both of these areas have become solid Liberal areas, it is unlikely that Labor will be able to win the seat again as it will require them to regain most of the 9% margin through a statewide swing.
The Liberals appear to have a built-in majority in Dunkley which makes it extremely unlikely that Labor could unseat Billson this year. Having said that, the 2004 election provided the Liberals with an unprecedented level of support at either level of government. Given the volatility shown in the northern booths, and the large swing to the Coalition in 2004, there is the potential for a hefty swing back to Labor in 2007. Also, given the apparent similarities in trends between those Dunkley booths and other booths in Suburban Melbourne, a swing there could suggest a similar swing across the city. It may be extremely unlikely that the ALP will win Dunkley, but if they manage to win enough of a swing to put the seat in doubt for a while on the night it might be a good sign for other seats further along the pendulum.
WHAT TO WATCH
Dunkley could fall to Labor if
- They make large gains in Langwarrin (TPP around 48%) and Karingal (TPP around 45%)
More likely, it could be significant in other seats if
- They return to 2004 figures in Langwarrin (TPP 43%), Karingal (TPP 51%), and Mornington East (TPP 58%)
Dunkley looks safe in the long-term for the Liberals if
- Langwarrin and Mornington East don’t beat any statewide swing to Labor (although if Labor wins government this swing might come at the second election)
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