Blog CemeteryDobell
October 25th 2007 13:17
Booth Information
For a long period a relatively safe ALP seat on the NSW central coast, Dobell was won by the Coalition in the 2001 federal election. A good redistribution for the ALP saw the seat's margin drop below 5% in 2004, but with it moving heavily towards the Coalition at both state and federal levels the ALP's task may be harder than its margin suggests.
Detailed Results
The defining characteristic of recent elections in Dobell at both federal and state level has been the consistent drift towards the Coalition. At the federal level, the significant statewide swing of over 6% since 1993 has been compounded, with the seat as a whole swinging by almost 12% over the five federal levels. This has cost the ALP both an overall majority and pushed the seat below their statewide average in 2004 for the first time measured in a lower house election. Over the course of the five elections the seat has been the Coalition's sixth strongest performer.
Booth Information
The steady trickle of votes to the Coalition became something of a torrent in 2004. Against a relatively benign election across NSW, Dobell swung to the Coalition by over 5% to be - on current boundaries - the only seat to change hands. Whereas the previous swings had been largely in line with the statewide average and had seen little change in the seat's position in the ladder of NSW seats, 2004 saw Dobell move up seven places in terms of Coalition TPP from 30th to 23rd.
Booth Information
But was this a blip or a progression in a longer trend to the Coalition? The geographical distribution of the swing was patchy and in many ways inclusive, with the swing to the Coalition was strong across the seat. Further, the lack of any swing to the Coalition in Toukley, which was added to the seat in the 2007 redistribution, suggests the swing was connected to seatwide factors which may have been unique to 2004, rather than more long-term factors which may have had a greater influence across the seat. This is supported by the lack of any significant swing in the surrounding seats, with the most significant neighbours to the North and South both swinging by less than 1%.
Booth Information
But while this may suggest that Dobell's 2004 result was an aberration, statewide results have been following a similar trend. Since the 1999 poll, Dobell has been one of the Coalition's top six seats in terms of swing towards them, with the seat moving by over 2% above the state swing at each election and improving to be in the top half of NSW seats for the Coalition in 2007. While the transferability of state results to the federal sphere always has to be handled with skepticism, the matching swings at both federal and state levels may indicate an overall drift to the Coalition.
Booth Information
Arguably the best way to check this would be to look at where the swing was strongest at the federal level. As the table below shows, those areas where the Coalition have performed best at federal level have attracted even stronger swings at the last two state elections. Thus, swings around Warnervale, Greater Wyong and the South Tuggerah area (around Tumbi Umbi and Bateau Bay) give every appearance of being significant. For the ALP to look to regain the seat they will need to either arrest their losses in these areas or compensate in the smaller areas around the edges of the seat.
While 2004's big swing was most likely exaggerated by local factors unique to that year's election, state results suggest that the above average movement to the Coalition may be real. 2007 should see something of a correction on the 2004 results, although without the ALP making up anywhere near all of the Coalition's gain. It would be a surprise to see the ALP gain anything more than a per cent above whatever swing they manage at the statewide level. A big overall swing may see the ALP regain Dobell, but for the first time it would appear that it will take a statewide majority for the ALP to achieve victory in the seat.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR...
The ALP could win if...
- They gain 55% of the TPP at Watanobbi booth (49.56% TPP in 2004) - it fell by 12.7% in 2004 and by 18% at state level.
- They regain the Berkeley Vale booth (44.32% TPP in 2004)
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