Blog CemeteryDeakin
August 21st 2007 14:51
Booth Information
Despite the ALP only holding the seat for one year since its formation in 1937, Deakin goes into the 2007 federal election as the Coalition’s closest marginal seat in Victoria. Incorporating the suburbs along the Maroondah Highway from Blackburn to Ringwood, it has not delivered the same large swings to the Liberals as other Eastern Melbourne seats such as Aston and Casey.
Detailed Result History
Deakin has had extremely stable voting patterns in the last fifteen years, finishing each of the 16 elections analysed between 16th and 18th in terms of TPP for the Coalition, and generally providing the Coalition with a TPP about 3% above the state average. Federally the seat has tended to perform comparatively better when the Liberals have not performed as well on a statewide basis, suggesting a strong base of Liberal support and implying the seat may be more difficult for the ALP to win in 2007.
After going into the 2004 federal election with a slender margin which had fallen at the previous two polls, the Liberals gained almost 3.5% to increase their buffer to almost 5%. With the exception of the western booths at Blackburn, all sections of the seat swung by around 3% to the Liberals, while there was also significant movement to the Coalition in the non-booth votes. The Coalition gained new majorities in Nunawading and Blackburn South with a total of eight booths moving to a coalition majority, while only the Tally Ho booth moved the other way. In total the Coalition won 31 of the 36 booths contested, with their highest TPP vote coming at Ringwood North (66.47%) and Heathmont High (62.82%). In terms of suburbs, the ALP only carried Burwood East, while their highest TPP was a mere 53% at Nunawading. The Coalition’s success is best signified by the fact that in 2004 Barresi won the seat without resorting to preferences.
Booth Information
The one major aberrant election in Deakin was a larger than average swing against the Liberals at the 2002 state election that may have been caused by disillusionment with the Liberal Party’s policy on the EastLink tollway road. While the Liberals did not gain a majority of the TPP at the 2006 state election for Deakin, they did win back the state seats Kilsyth and Bayswater from the ALP and the federal electorate as a whole did revert back to the general TPP range compared to the state average. The ALP’s state performance was comparatively strongest in the central booths in Nunawading and Mitcham and around Blackburn South, which are also the areas which had previously been the ALP’s strongest at the federal level.
Booth Information
While the seat has stayed steadily, if not safely, in the Liberal’s hands, the composition of their support has changed over the last decade. Blackburn has gone from being the strongest area of Coalition support in 1993 to one of the least supportive with a 3.3% swing which goes against the state average over the period. On the other hand, ALP majorities in the central booths and in Blackburn South have disappeared, while the area at the South-East of the seat has swung by almost 6% to become the Coalitions’s strongest area in the seat.
Unsurprisingly these swings to the Coalition occurred in areas bordering Aston, which has become the defining example of the Howard Government’s success with suburban Melbourne voters in recent elections, although the swing has been stronger on the other side of the border. But while in many suburban areas the swing to Howard has been matched by a swing at state elections to the Bracks government, in Deakin the stats are more mixed.
Booth Information
While all areas of the seat have supported state Labor more strongly than the federal ALP, in the central booths and in Blackburn South the difference is above the state average, but in the South-East around Heathmont the difference parallels the state difference. Once again this swing is smaller than that in those seats which have given the Howard Government some of its biggest gains, and if there is a bounce-back effect to federal Labor in 2007 it is unlikely that these areas of Deakin will be as affected as those seats.
As the figures show, the Blackburn area has been a shining light for the federal ALP. Following the trend of adjacent Chisholm, the Blackburn area is drifting towards an ALP majority, and even in the poor 2004 performance all but one Blackburn booth moved towards the ALP. Interestingly this movement has not been mirrored at the state level, with the Blackburn booths bouncing back to 1999 levels in 2006, and bettering the state average at the same time.
Beneath its apparent stability, there is considerable movement in the areas which make up Deakin. While the areas to the East of the seat appear strongly Liberal - although susceptible to following if not exceeding a statewide swing – the Western parts of the seat have providing an intriguing range of figures. While federal results in the Blackburn area have provided some comfort for the ALP it has been their state results in the central booths and in Blackburn South which have been the most promising. Whether the Blackburn trend to the ALP continues in 2007, and whether the central and southern booths also swing back to them will determine whether the ALP has a serious chance of taking the seat. Based on its overall recent stability, the best chance of an ALP win would appear to be on the back of a large statewide swing rather than an isolated move. While it may be the closest Liberal margin in Victoria, it does not appear to be their biggest chance of victory.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Deakin if…
- They win each of the three areas west of Ringwood (Blackburn – 48.1% in 2004, the Central Booths – 46.3% in 2004), and Blackburn South (49.5% in 2004) AND
- Their state TPP rises above 51.5% (currently 48.7%)
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