Kate SlackCorio
August 17th 2007 08:19
Booth Information
Taking in most of the Greater Geelong region, Corio has been a reasonably safe Labor seat since the 1960’s and has not suffered any real swing to the Coalition in their recent ascendancy. The ALP has consistently won most areas of the seat at both levels of elections and with no major demographic changes occurring there appears little risk of new candidate Richard Marles losing the seat.
Detailed Result History
Corio swung to the Coalition by a swing of 3.06% in 2004 - almost exactly matching the statewide swing of 3.11%. The swing was strongest felt in the Eastern Geelong booths, with Whittington moving by almost 6% and Geelong East by around 4.5%. Across the rest of the seat the swing was comfortably below the state average, although all but six booths in Central Geelong and in the North of the seat, did move to the opposition. While the move dented rather than threatened the ALP’s margin it did give the Coalition a TPP majority in three extra booths over 2001 (Moolap, Clifton Springs and Lara Central), with also providing them with a majority in the Northern region overall. The only lower house election measured where this had occurred was in the 1999 state poll. The extra booths meant that the Coalition won booths at four of the five regions in the 2004 federal election, with the only holdover for the ALP coming in their stronghold in Northern Geelong. The ALP’s best five booths in the seat were all in either Corio and Norlane, peaking at 74.95% at the North Shore booth. For the Coalition, Fyans Park and Aberdeen (both in Newtown) where the strongest booths, with between 63-65% of the TPP vote.
Booth Information
The ALP’s TPP vote has suffered at each of the two most recent federal elections, with the ALP’s margin of 5.6% in 2004 their tightest in the last fifteen years. But in relation to the ALP’s statewide performance, their TPP has only dropped marginally, with the seat not prone to the kind of swings which had affected a number of other safe ALP seats. The ALP’s TPP continues to hover around 7% above their state average with a mix of booths turning heavily to the coalition (Drysdale, Whittington, Norlane) being balanced by other booths which have proven immune to the statewide swing (Leopold, Newtown). Over the last five elections as a whole, the only major swing has occurred in the growing town of Lara in the seat’s far North, although even here the swing was more prominent in the 1996 and 1998 elections with the swing at the last two elections being far below the state and seat average. Further this area is isolated from the rest of the seat and holds under 8,000 voters, which restricts both its application and importance to the seat at large.
Booth Information
Much of the ALP’s winning margin in Corio comes from the large booths in the heavy manufacturing areas in the Northern suburbs of Geelong. In 2004, roughly a fifth of the seats voters used the Corio or Norlane booths, with the Northern Geelong area as a whole providing the ALP with a TPP majority of almost 7,000 votes in that elections. While the ALP has lost some voters in this area at recent elections it has stayed above 20% the ALP’s TPP state average and would form a handy buffer if the ALP had slumped across the rest of the seat. As it is, the ALP would still have won Corio regardless of how it polled in this area in 2004, and although this would make the seat marginal it would also have meant that the overall swing would have been below the state average.
If the ALP look comfortable in Corio, the areas in South-East of the seat have still exhibited some interesting electoral behaviour. The Eastern suburbs of Geelong, and the northern areas of the Bellarine Peninsula, have moved towards the Howard Government by above the state average, while swinging by around 10% to the Bracks Government in the 2006 state election. This pattern is of course similar to many suburbs of Melbourne which have swung heavily behind both incumbent governments, although in this case only the Bellarine Peninsula areas have been growing in size at anything like the proportions found in Craigieburn or Langwarrin.
Interestingly in Corio the Bracks Government lost only a minimal amount of their support in the 2006 state election despite the sizeable state wide swing against it, which could possibly indicate a deeper movement to the ALP in these areas. In the sizeable suburban booths of Whittington and St Albans Park, the ALP polled over 10% and 17% higher respectively in the 2006 state election than the 2004 federal poll. Where this becomes important is that both Eastern Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula are shared by Corio with the more marginal seat of Corangamite, which has been moving to the Coalition and may well be a key seat in 2007. Thus any early results in this area may point tentatively to results across the border in Corangamite.
Booth Information
Recent results suggest that any major swing in Corio tends to follow the statewide trend, with the seat’s TPP marginally more elastic than state averages but generally comfortably in favour of the ALP. With the ALP’s margin showing little evidence that it move independently towards the Coalition under normal circumstances, the possibility of a statewide swing to the ALP suggests Corio will be comfortably won by Marles. The only factor which could seriously threaten the ALP’s hold would be a run by disendorsed candidate Gavan O’Connor. Short of this, the most interest that Corio will hold on election night should be what it shows about its southern neighbour.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR…
The Liberals could win Corio if…
- They can win the Hamlyn Heights booth (45.4% in 2004, has moved to Liberals)
ALSO, to win Corangamite, the ALP would appreciate…
- 48% of TPP in Drysdale (43.8% in 2004)
- Improvement on 2004 federal result in Whittington (62.2% in 2004 compared to 72.3% in 2006) and St Albans Park (54.1% to 71.3%)
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