Blog CemeteryCorangamite
August 15th 2007 08:55
Booth Information
While traditionally a rural electorate in Western Victoria, Corangamite has undergone a demographic shift in the recent past. It now includes growing outer suburbs of Geelong such as Belmont, Highton and Grovedale, while the coastal regions from the Bellarine Peninsula down the Great Ocean Road includes large tourist centres such as Queenscliff, Lorne and Apollo Bay as well as growing coastal towns such as Ocean Grove and Torquay. Inland beyond the Otway Ranges the seat includes the large rural town of Colac and the Corangamite Lakes region before stretching north past Meredith of the Midland Highway and to Smythesdale and Linton in the North-West.
Detailed Result History
Corangamite has historically taken up a large portion of the Western District area considered to be the rural aristocracy of Victoria, and since the party’s formation over 60 years ago, the Liberals has never lost the seat. In the 2004 election McArthur overcame an expected heavy challenge to hold the seat by a slightly reduced margin. His highest TPP figures were in small country booths at Cressy (79.1%) and Irrewillipe (74.9%), while also polling over 60% across Colac, and winning all but one booth in Geelong. The ALP carried a total of 20 booths (an increase of 8 over 2001), with the most important gains coming from the large coastal booths at Collendina, Ocean Grove and Anglesea. Most of their victories came along the coast between Ocean Grove and Lorne, and in the small rural booths in the seat’s far north-west, with their highest seatwide TPP coming at Dereel (60.83%). The Greens vote of 7.51% was just above their state average, and was heavily skewed towards the booths along the Great Ocean Road in the seat’s South-West. Their strongest booths were at Airey’s Inlet (18.72%) and Lavers Hill (17.75%).
Booth Information
But while the ALP has not held Corangamite since 1931, it has been drifting towards the ALP in recent years. At both houses of parliament in both federal and state elections, the Liberal’s TPP has fallen in Corangamite against the state average and in its ranking compared with other Victorian seats [See table below]. In 2004, Corangamite bucked the statewide trend towards the PM by swinging very slightly to the ALP in spite of the fears caused by the party’s forests policy in the logging industry.
Corangamite can be divided into three reasonably distinct areas which have exhibited different voting patterns over the last fifteen years. The first group is the rural areas which have long characterised the seat. These areas have provided consistent majorities to the Liberals throughout the period in question. Interestingly, while the strong support for MacArthur has often been attributed to a strong personal vote for the long-standing federal member, the rural areas as a whole voted an almost identical majority to the state Liberals in 2006 as to Federal Liberals in 2004, despite both the state and seat average Liberal vote being around 5% lower at the state level. Within the large rural area, Colac has displaced the central region of the seat as the stronghold of Liberal support with 64% support in the 2004 House election and 66% Legislative Assembly election, although Cressy and Irrewillipe are still the strongest Liberal booths with in excess of 75% support in 2004. The country areas have dropped in both relative and absolute numbers since 1993, falling from 24.4% in 1993 to 21.1% of the seats total vote in the 2004 House election. Based on the strong and consistent Liberal support in these booths any move past 43% on a TPP basis through this area would be a bonus for Labor.
Booth Information
In contrast, Corangamite’s coastal booths have been steadily drifting towards the ALP. Encompassing most of the Bellarine Peninsula and stretching down the Great Ocean Road past Cape Otway, and including the state forest areas in the Otway Rangers, the coastal areas have become synonymous with increasing tourism and growing numbers of ‘sea changers’. Led by large swings at Bellbrae, Lorne and Lavers Hill, ALP support in the coastal regions of Corangamite crept above the statewide average at the last election of both houses for both federal and state elections. The coastal town of Aireys Inlet is Labor’s best booth in the seat with 59% TPP vote in 2004 and 65% in 2006, while the coastal region also includes the Greens’ strongest booths at Aireys Inlet, Lavers Hill, and slightly inland at Forest and Gellibrand River. However the level of the drift shouldn’t be overstated, as the ALP has not managed to get over 50% of TPP votes in a federal election through the period. This has largely been because the largest coastal areas in the seat, such as Torquay and the Collendina booth in Ocean Grove bucked the trend by moving marginally to the Coalition.
Booth Information
Finally, Corangamite includes large tracts of the outer suburban areas of Geelong. These areas have followed the pattern of many Melbourne suburbs of falling behind both the Howard Coalition Government and the Labor State Government. Grovedale and Bannockburn gave Federal Labor over 10% less of the TPP vote in 2004 than they gave State Labor in 2006, although the Geelong area of Corangamite has stayed above the state average for the Coalition at both levels.
Booth Information
But unlike some other Melbourne suburbs, support for the Howard Government in Corangamite’s Geelong suburbs has stayed steady rather than swing in any real way to the Government and has dropped against the state average in the House since 1998 and in the Senate since 1996. These booths are the most likely area in which the ALP will gain large numbers of voters in 2007.
As the table above shows, Corangamite combines a loyally Liberal, through shrinking, rural sector with a growing coastal area that is drifting Labor and a tract of suburban booths which have shown a willingness to switch between Coalition and Labor support, and a tendency to support the ruling party. This mix of rural, suburban and seaside voters gives Corangamite the potential to become a Victorian Eden-Monaro – the kind of bellwether seat pundits love to give a deeper meaning to as a window on Australian voters. But at this stage, victory in Corangamite can’t seriously be seen as necessary for victory in Canberra for Rudd and Labor. The seat does appear to be trending to the ALP but it would need either a quickening of this trend or a statewide landslide to fall. That said, MacArthur looks more in danger than most members with a 5.3% margin, and Corangamite does represent one of Labor’s best chances of picking up a seat in Victoria.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Labor could win Corangamite if…
- Their Statewide TPP vote pushes above 52%, OR,
- Their TPP vote in the Geelong booths rises above 48% AND
- Their TPP vote in the Coastal booths rises above 52%
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