Blog CemeteryChisholm
August 13th 2007 13:11
Booth Information
For most observers, Chisholm is something of an anomaly; an island of Red in a rising sea of Liberal Blue which has seen other Eastern suburban seats swing strongly towards the Howard Government. Previously held by one-time Liberal leadership candidate Dr Michael Wooldridge, the seat was won by Labor’s Anna Burke in 1998 and she has increased her margin slightly at both elections since. Of all the seats the Coalition might have expected to have won from their strong performances in Victoria in 2001 and 2004, Chisholm was probably the most likely; but instead the seat rose from 19th strongest to 15th strongest for the ALP on TPP terms in 2004 and is now merely their fifth-marginal seat in Victoria.
Result History
For a second straight election, Chisholm defied a significant statewide swing to the Coalition and gave Anna Burke a (very slightly) increased margin. The ALP overturned a primary vote deficit from 2001 of over 1,000 votes and on two party-preferred terms increased their margin by 17 votes. Both parties won a number of booths in the North and Centre of the booth, and most booths were closely fought, with just the two strongly ALP booths in Clayton decided by a margin of over 15%.
The key for the ALP was that they were able to maintain their slight vote majorities in both the central and northern parts of the seat, thus allowing their significant TPP advantage in the south of the seat to provide Burke with a significant margin. Only the Koonung Heights booth in Box Hill North changed hands, moving to the ALP in a swing of just under 2%. The ALP made their biggest gains in the centre of the seat, carrying Mount Waverley and increasing their share by 4% in Glen Waverley, while the Coalition improved their vote in their traditionally weakest area at the seat’s South.
Booth Information
After swinging to the Coalition in their 1996 Federal victory, Chisholm has been the ALP’s strongest performing seat in Victoria, swinging to them by almost 5.5% in the three federal elections since. This means the seat has improved by almost 7% against the state average. Interestingly this swing has come despite, rather than because, the small area at the south of the seat which is the ALP’s strongest area. While the booths in Clayton and Oakleigh have moved slightly to the ALP, the major swings have occurred in the larger areas around Mount Waverley in the seat’s centre, and around Box Hill in the seat’s North. Every booth in Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley, and north of Highbury Road has swung by at least 4% to the ALP since 1996.
When looking at individual suburbs, the ALP has improved from only winning Box Hill and Chadstone out of the ten suburbs in the seat’s Centre and North in 1996, to winning seven of the ten suburbs in 2004. The upshot has been that marginal suburbs such as Box Hill North and Ashwood have swung enough to give the ALP a majority, while those areas which had been Liberal strongholds – Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley and Surrey Hills – have each swung by over 9% to deny the Liberals any area of strong support in the seat.
Chisholm’s strong performance can be linked to the lack of population growth in the seat. While the outer suburbs have seen booming populations which have swung sharply behind incumbent government at both federal and state levels, Chisholm’s population has been flat throughout the last fifteen years, which has meant it has not been susceptible to the interest rate scares which defined the 2004 campaign. Instead the established suburbs in the Seat’s Centre and North have drifted to the ALP on social issues rather than drifting behind the Howard government on economic issues, as has been the case in many of the outer suburbs.
Booth Information
State results show that there has been something of an incumbency effect, but it has occurred in limited areas, and it has tended to occur in both directions. Therefore the few areas which swung to Howard in 2004 – Clayton and Oakleigh in the South, Ashwood and Chadstone in the West – also have the strongest relative performances for the Bracks Government. Conversely, a number of booths in the North gave more support for the Baillieu campaign in the 2006 state election campaign than for the Howard Government in 2004, in spite of a statewide difference between the two of around 5%. Thus the North-Western booth of Mont Albert has moved from 17% above the Coalition’s TPP in 1993 to 4% above in 2004, but has improved from 10% to 12.5% above at state levels between 1999 and 2006. This does suggest that these areas have a built-in level of Liberal support which could anchor the ALP’s TPP support in the mid-50’s at best and, under a different Liberal leader, may keep the seat in play despite changes to the statewide electoral picture.
Booth Information
But just as the most populous area of the seat is around the Waverleys, so this appears to be the decisive area electorally. At the state level it has mirrored its federal swing by giving the ALP above state-average support in the 2006 state election. If the Coalition is to win back Chisholm it will be this area in which they will need to reverse the consistent trend. Unfortunately the combination of state and federal results towards the ALP shows that this swing looks to be permanent, rather than either a backlash to the Howard Government, or a swing to Bracks. Given this, it is likely that Chisholm will remain within grasp, but out of reach, of the federal Liberal party.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Liberals could win if…
- They win the Centre area (48.6% in 2004)
o 49% at the Ashwood booth may be a good measure (46% in 2004)
- They win the North area (47.8% in 2004)
o Wins in Kerrimuir (46.7% in 2004) and Wattle Park (46.9%) would be significant
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