Blog CemeteryCasey
August 12th 2007 07:13
Booth Information
Booth Information
Casey is a combination of the outer areas of Melbourne’s sprawling Eastern suburbs and the northern half of the Dandenong Ranges. The majority of the seats voters live in the suburbs spreading along the Maroondah Highway from Croydon through Mooroolbark and onto Lilydale, with a minority living in a sprinkling of small towns such as Monbulk and Seville in the seat’s west. In recent federal elections, the Liberal Party have gained continuously increasing margins on the back of strong swings throughout the suburban areas.
Detailed Result History
As with many outer Eastern Melbourne seats, Casey moved considerably towards the Howard Government in the 2004 House election, with local member Tony Smith increasing his margin to above 10%. The Liberals won all but three mountain booths (Kallista, Mount Dandenong and The Patch), with their strongest results at Gruyere (72.58% TPP) and Yarra Road (70.63%) in Croydon. Both the Greater Lilydale and Greater Croydon area saw overall TPP swings in excess of 4.5% with the Lilydale North and Mount Evelyn booths swinging by over 8% towards the Coalition. It was only in the Dandenong Ranges that the ALP’s vote held relatively steady with an overall swing against them of under one percent, and their only two improvements at Monbulk and The Patch.
Booth Information
The Greens’ above average performance was based on strong performances in these mountain booths, polling almost 25% at Kallista, and over 18% at Mount Dandenong and The Patch. This compensated for below average polling in the Lilydale area of the seat. Finally, Casey was Family First’s third strongest seat in the 2004 House election, and strongest at that year’s Senate poll. Their House vote peaked at over 7% in Mount Evelyn.
Recent results suggest two major trends at play in Casey. Firstly, the seat has a strong base vote for the coalition. Historically, this was most heavily focused in the less populated areas in the Dandenong Ranges, although the Coalition does win most booths in most areas of the seat. However the ALP are encroaching on Liberal support in the Mountain areas with the help of a substantial Green vote, especially in the South-West corner of the seat. Thus in the 2004 Federal election the three booths in the seat that the ALP won came on the back of strong Green preferences and despite finishing second in all three on primary votes. This has turned the Mountain areas of Casey from the safest section of the Seat for the Liberals to the most marginal section, and its TPP compared with the state average has dropped at both state and federal level.
Booth Information
The second major trend in Casey is strong support for incumbent leaders. This is focused in the suburban section of the seat and has seen large swings to both the Prime Minister and the Victorian Premier in recent years. This is at its most strong in the areas around Lilydale, which gave the Liberals a TPP between 4 and 5% above the state average in the Labor victories of 1993 (Federal), 2002 and 2006 (state), and saw this jump to almost 11% by the 2004 Howard victory.
Interestingly the trend appears to support incumbent leaders rather than follow the statewide trend, with the 1999 State Election seeing the Coalition achieve a TPP over 10% above the state average in the lower house despite suffering an unexpected defeat. Unfortunately for Labor, the swing in Lilydale came with the second swing towards the incumbent Bracks government. While not quite as strong in Croydon, the overall suburban trend mirrors ones in adjacent eastern suburban seats such as Aston, Deakin and La Trobe.
Booth Information
The combined effect of two trends is that Casey is generally a reasonably safe Liberal seat which has become very safe under the long incumbency of the Howard government. State election results show that the seat can vote for the ALP but only under extreme landslide conditions such as those prevalent in the 2002 election. Even the strength of swing to the ALP at recent state elections has only seen the Coalition’s TPP ranking fall from 7th to 13th at the state level, which makes it a possible ‘high-water mark’ seat for the ALP but unlikely to fall otherwise.
The two times the ALP have won Casey have coincided with the last two occasions they took government. It is difficult to see the seat swinging that far on this occasion to make it third time lucky. Most of the interest from Casey will be to see whether the ALP can take back some of the large Liberal gains in the suburban booths in the seat’s West and provide a hint of a greater swing which could bring the ALP success in Deakin or La Trobe. While it’s conceivable to see the ALP win Casey, it is unlikely to occur from opposition.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win if…
They make significant gains in the suburban areas which have swung to the Howard and Bracks governments. At a minimum they would probably have to win the two Mount Evelyn booths (4641 voters in 2004, 58.69 Lib TPP) to have any chance.
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