Blog CemeteryCalwell
August 12th 2007 06:23
Booth Information
One of Victoria’s fastest growing electorates, Calwell has swung considerably towards the Coalition at the last two federal elections but remains a safe seat for Labor. Although the growing areas to the seats north such as Craigieburn, and especially Sunbury, have been more willing to support the Liberal party than the strongly ALP areas around Broadmeadows in the seats south, they have generally voted in large majorities to the ALP.
Detailed Result History
The 2004 election saw Calwell swing further towards the Howard Government than any other Victorian seat. Every booth contested at both the 2001 and 2004 election swung to the Coalition, with each overall area within the seat swinging by over 5%. Swings of over ten percent were recorded at the tiny Melbourne Airport booth, and at Killara (10.33%), Craigieburn South (12.02%) and Westmeadows (10.25%). Overall the Coalition doubled the number of booths they carried from the 2001 election, and achieved unprecedented majorities in Sunbury and Greenvale. Despite this, the ALP still held the seat with a majority of over 8% across the seat, and won over 70% of the TPP vote in eight booths across the seat’s centre and south. Their strongest booths were at Upfield (78.29% of TPP), Meadow Fair (77.33%) and Bethal (76.12%). Calwell provided the Citizens Electoral Council with their highest vote in 2004, polling 2.2% of the vote overall and over 4% at Bethal (4.3%), Broadmeadows South (5.3%) and Campbellfield (6.3%).
Booth Information
In the past decade, the population making up Calwell has expanded by over a third. The northern areas of the seat around Craigieburn and Roxburgh Park have grown by 154% between the 1993 Federal and 2006 State election, while further south Greenvale has grown by 102%. Combined these areas have added 12,000 votes and have taken over from the shrinking areas around Broadmeadows and Tullamarine as the largest areas within the seat.
Craigieburn has shown the way in swinging towards the Howard government in recent elections, with a total swing of almost 13% on TPP at the last two federal elections. But while this has been emulated to some degree across the seat it has only seen the booths in Sunbury and in Greenvale swing to a Coalition TPP majority in the 2004 election.
That election saw Calwell’s TPP for the ALP slip below 10% above the state average for the first time recorded, and also saw the seat drop to 9th in terms of state ranking of ALP TPP.
Booth Information
However state elections hint at this being something of an aberrant vote. The areas comprising Calwell swung strongly to the ALP in 2002 and stayed loyal in 2006, with the ALP averaging a TPP 13% stronger in the seat at the 2006 Assembly election than the 2004 House election and being ranked five places higher. This difference has been focused on the same areas that have had the strongest population growth (Craigieburn 20% stronger for state ALP, Roxburgh Park 16%, Greenvale and Sunbury 13%), which suggests a similar predisposition to incumbent governments regardless of their political colour that has been prevalent in other fast growing Melbourne suburbs. This does mean that these areas (especially Craigieburn as the strongest example) may provide an inkling towards a stronger swing across other Melbourne suburbs.
Booth Information
The trend figures in Calwell at the federal level point to a future threat to the ALP. However the results also show that further demographic change would be required in order to provide a swing strong enough to give the Coalition a real chance of taking the seat. Further, recent state results suggest that the swing to the Coalition is not permanent in these areas, but that the seat is affected by a mix of strong support for incumbent leaders and a strong Labor basis in which the latter will outweigh the former. In reality the 2004 performance may prove a highwater mark for the Liberals, and a swing to the ALP beyond the statewide average looks the most likely outcome.
What to Watch for…
- The results in Craigieburn – a swing to the Coalition (TPP 44%) will suggest that the area is still moving towards the Liberals. However a large swing the other way (ALP TPP 65%) may suggest a greater trend.
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