Blog CemeteryBowman
November 12th 2007 02:05
Booth Information
The coastal Brisbane seat of Bowman has been one of the strongest performers for the Coalition in recent years, moving from an ALP seat in 1993 to a solid Coalition hold at the 2004 election. However with the ALP coming off a very low TPP vote across Queensland and expecting to make big gains across the state Bowman is generally seen as in play in 2007.
Result History
In the 2004 federal election, Bowman was the strongest performing seat for the Coalition in Queensland, swinging to them by over 6% in absolute terms and jumping five places relative to other Queensland seats. Driven by a swing that was 4% above the state average, the Coalition polled better in Bowman than in Queensland as a whole for the first time measured, while moving into the top half of seats for the Coalition in Queensland.
Booth Information
The 2004 swing was biggest in the Northern booths which dominate the seat. The towns of Alexandra Hills, Capalaba, Birkdale and Thornlands all swung by over 7.5% to the Liberals, leading six booths which had previously given Labor a majority in 2001 to provide the Coalition with majorities. The Coalition carried all but one mainland booth (at Thorneside) and gained votes in all but two booths (Victoria Point South and Coochiemudlo Island) across the seat.
Booth Information
For many pundits this recent swing to the Coalition would suggest that the seat is liable to a rebound for the ALP which, in a Queensland electoral climate which is expected to produce solid swings across the state, could see a spectacular swing in Bowman to Labor. It shares large population growths in recent years with many other seats of that nature, with the seat as a whole increasing in size by almost 50% since the 1993 election. This does suggest that interest rates would have been an important policy in 2004, and the 2007 poll may see this backfire on the Government.
However Bowman lacks a couple of the key qualities of many outer-suburban seats which I would expect to bounce to the ALP. Firstly, the swing to the Coalition has been more than a one-term aberration, with the seat moving further to the Coalition than any other Queensland seat since 1993. Secondly, while the ALP have done slightly better comparatively at the state wide level than at federal polls the swing is not to the same extent as some other seats in outer suburbs. While in other seats there is a thought that 'incumbent' support may move away from a Coalition government largely tipped to lose office, Bowman's voting patterns do not follow this trend.
The Liberal's gains in 2004 continued an upward trend in their vote which has been prominent throughout the period covered here. After the ALP won the seat (on current boundaries) with over 5% above their statewide vote at the 1993 election the Coalition have made gains against the statewide average at each of the four elections held since, holding the seat despite a poor statewide performance in 1998.
Booth Information
While the long-term swing has been strongest in the Northern booths, it has been well above the statewide average across the seat. Large booths at Alexandra Hills, Birkdale South and Coolnwynpin have all moved by over 15% to the Coalition, in each case moving from sound Labor support to Coalition majorities across the period. While the ALP won every booth in Alexandra Hills, Capalaba and Birkdale in 1993 they won none of the nine contested in 2004. Further south the booths around Victoria Point and Redland Bay have moved by around 9% to the Coalition, while also adding extra buffer to the Coalition majority through the rapid population expansion through this area. Finally even the islands in Moreton Bay have moved solidly to the Coalition, while still providing the ALP with a small majority overall.
Labor have polled better at state elections, consistently polling around 3% above their statewide average and holding the seat (on current boundaries) reasonably comfortably. The difference between federal and state results is strongest in the booths around Capalaba and Alexandra Park where the Coalition have been most successful at the federal level. The ALP's support has held pretty well against a statewide drift back to the Coalition at recent state elections. However across the seat the difference between the ALP's federal and state support is less than its southern neighbours, Fadden and Forde. Overall state results don't really suggest a strong enough amount of support for Labor that would drag their federal vote to a majority.
Booth Information
2004's swing to the Coalition in Bowman suggests that the seat may bounce back for Labor in 2007. But the fact that the swing has been relatively consistent against the state average suggests it may be more of a trend than a spike in Coalition support. While state results provide some comfort for the ALP they don't suggest enough to convince me that the seat is ripe for the picking for Labor. For Labor to gain a swing above the statewide average would be a strong result in 2007. While the ALP may gain Bowman I wouldn't expect it to be one of the first to fall.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The ALP could win Bowman if...
- They win the Alexandra Park booth (44.54% TPP in 2004)
- They win the Coolnwynpin booth (40.73% TPP in 2004)
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