Blog CemeteryBendigo
August 12th 2007 00:04
Booth Information
Always a fiercely contested seat, the seat of Bendigo is the most marginal in Victoria after the 2004 federal election, with the ALP holding the seat by a margin of under 1.0%. Based on Senate results at the same election the Coalition would have been elected by around half a percent. However the seat has improved marginally for the ALP against the state average in TPP terms since 1996, and has been a strong performer for the Bracks government at state level. Obviously, the ALP can ill-afford to lose such a tight seat in Victoria, although as it performs quite differently to other Victorian seats it is unlikely that there will be overflow effects from any swing in the seat.
Detailed Result History
The 2004 federal election saw the ALP suffer a 2.5% swing that left the seat precariously close to falling to the Coalition. While the ALP maintained small majorities in both the Bendigo and non-Bendigo parts of the seat they lost majorities in nine booths while gaining just two. Although the swing was not large, all areas of the seat saw a fall in the ALP's TPP, with the swing between 3 and 5% in most areas of the seat. One striking characteristic of the 2004 poll was that few booths saw very large margins; only the small booth at Sparrowhawk (71.82 TPP) provided the ALP with a TPP above 70%, while the Coalition failed to reach 65% of the TPP at any booth, with their strongest performances at the country booths in Newbridge (63.98%), Elmore (63.07%) and Huntly (62.09%). Bendigo was also the Family First party's fifth best performed seat at the 2004 House election.
Booth Information
The major change in recent federal elections has been an improvement for the ALP in the South-west of the seat. The closest part of the seat to suburban Melbourne, and taking in the large towns of Kyneton and Castlemaine as well as a number of smaller towns on the Calder Highway, this area drove the 1998 swing which (on present boundaries) would have delivered the seat to the ALP and has held up strongly for the party against the statewide swing at the last two federal elections. Castlemaine and Chewton are the seat’s strongest areas for the ALP with around 60% of the TPP vote, while Kyneton has been drifting towards a 50% TPP for the ALP at the last two elections. While the other rural areas of the seat had also been trending towards the ALP they swung to the Coalition in the 2004 election with the areas in the North and East of the seat providing Coalition majorities. However the overall strength for the ALP has meant that at the last two federal elections, the non-Bendigo part of the seat has been the strongest section of the seat for the ALP.
Booth Information
Around two-thirds of the vote in the seat is in the city of Bendigo itself, with this number increasing over the last fifteen years. The Bendigo area has been trending towards the Coalition at recent elections, and although this has been at glacier rather than landslide speed it has meant that for the first time measured, the booths in and around Bendigo area provided the ALP with a TPP below the seat’s average at the 2004 federal election, even when non-booth votes are taken into account. However the ALP has still performed above the state average in the city of Bendigo at each of the last five federal elections, with the gap hovering above two percent at the last two elections. Interestingly the areas of Bendigo have trended in opposite directions to how they have voted in total, with the Liberal-voting area in Bendigo’s eastern suburbs trending to the ALP and the rest of the city slowly trending to the Coalition.
The seat’s marginal status at federal level has not been mirrored in the Legislative Assembly. The area was at the vanguard of the Bracks victory in 1999, and the ALP maintained strong support in 2002. The ALP’s support did drop back to below 58% in 2006, a drop of almost 3% relative to the state average since 2002 and pushing the seats ranking in terms of ALP TPP down from 11th to 15th, with the swing affecting both Bendigo itself and the rural areas of the seat although not the South-East corner.
Booth Information
As the state performance in Bendigo did not help the ALP in the 2004 or 2001 federal elections to any great degree – unlike in neighbouring Ballarat – it is highly unlikely that this drop will have any real effect on the 2007 election. Even if the state results do effect the upcoming federal election this could go two ways – 2006’s swing away from the ALP could signify a similar swing at the federal level, but the 2007 election could see Bendigo follow a similar path to in 1999, swinging strongly to the ALP as an early indicator of a statewide swing.
Bendigo appears to follow two contradictory trends, appearing to perform independent of any other Victorian seat but also staying close to the state pattern. What appears most likely is that Bendigo will stay close, but just above, the state average for the ALP. While the city of Bendigo has appeared to be swinging to the Liberals this appears to be a reaction to a statewide swing which it appears will be reversed to some extent in 2007. The seat is one of the Liberal’s most likely gains as there is every possibility that the trend to them will continue even if statewide results go against them. Bendigo’s uniqueness makes the seat both one to watch as a contested marginal, but also one that needs to be taken in isolation.
What to watch for…
The Liberals could win Bendigo if…
- They win Bendigo (the city, that is) – 2004 TPP 49.3%
o This probably requires, in turn, a strong performance (TPP 51%) in the Bendigo South area which is trending to them – 2004 TPP 49.1%
- They improve in the South-West - 2004 TPP 44.9%
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