Kate SlackBatman
August 10th 2007 22:56
Booth Information
The seat of Batman has long been one of the safest for the ALP. At its southern border it takes in the rapidly gentrifying suburbs of Northcote, Westgarth and Fairfield, before moving north through working class Preston and Thornbury and out to Reservoir, southern Bundoora and parts of MacLeod, as well as including the large Bundoora campus of Latrobe University. Batman has been held by the ALP for all but two brief period since its formation in 1910; for three years it was held by the United Australia Party after the 1931 landslide, and for one term it was held by disendorsed former ALP member Sam Benson in the 1960’s. The seat has been held by Sydney-sider Martin Ferguson since 1996 and was held by ex-Deputy PM Brian Howe prior to that.
Detailed Result Summary
The statistics show that Batman is among the ALP’s safest seats in Victoria. At each federal and state election since 1993 bar one, the seat has had the ALP’s biggest TPP margin in the state in both houses. In 15 of the 16 elections measured since 1993 the ALP has achieved a TPP vote above 70%, while it has been over 20% above the state average in 10 of the 16. Further, the ALP has won the TPP vote in every booth used in every election since 1993.
In the 2004 federal election, the ALP sustained a swing of around 5% in the Northern and Central areas of the seat, but overall Ferguson won the seat with over 71% of the TPP vote. The ALP carried every booth with over 60% of the TPP vote, and with over 70% in 26 of the 40 booths contested. The closest booth was at Bundoora South in the seat’s North-East (ALP 2PP 39.81%), while the ALP’s best booths were in the seat’s South, winning over 80% of the TPP at Croxton, Northcote West, Northcote South and Westgarth. Batman was the Green’s third strongest seat in 2004, with their vote strongest in the Southern booths. In six Southern booths they managed to defeat the Liberals. In upper house elections at both state and federal level, Batman has also been one of the strongest seats for the DLP.
Booth Information
But these statistics, as well as the ALP’s reasonably steady TPP vote, do hide a significant trend in the Southern sections of the electorate towards the Greens. As Northcote, Fairfield and Westgarth have become more gentrified, they have become a stronghold of the Greens. As with Fitzroy and Collingwood in the seat of Melbourne, the Greens have tended to challenge the ALP on primary vote in these southern suburbs with the Coalition vote falling to a distant third. While the primary vote figures were consistent throughout the seat prior to the 2001 Federal election, at recent polls the Southern booths have seen a large swing towards the Greens, with the seat as a whole ranking in the top 4 statewide for the Greens. At the state level this has seen the Greens become the ALP’s main threat in the seat of Northcote, although as yet without success.
Booth Information
The overall effect of this may appear promising for the Greens, but on the whole it has done little to change the complexion of the seat as a whole. While the Greens have performed at near-state high levels in the booths around Northcote, in most booths the ALP has managed to maintain a primary vote above 50%. Also, the Greens have struggled to reach double-digit support in the northern half of the seat and receive below the state average in the Reservoir booths which make up around a third of the seat’s votes. As Green votes have tended to flow to the ALP after preferences are counted, the strong vote count in the south of the seat actually pushed up the ALP’s TPP vote in the South in the 2004 Federal count to help insulate the seat from a 6% swing to the Coalition in the Seat’s north.
Booth Information
The Greens clearly form the only threat to the ALP in Batman, but to take the seat they need to perform two distinct tasks. Firstly, they need to pass the Liberal party on primary votes to ensure they figure in a TPP vote against the ALP, and secondly, they need the ALP’s primary vote to fall below 50% to ensure such a count is not merely academic. The Greens did manage to beat the Liberals at the recent state election, and the ALP’s primary House of Representatives vote has dropped by 10% since 1998. But the problem for the Greens is that as the ALP vote drops, the Liberals are the major beneficiaries in the Northern booths and the Greens fall further behind in third. If the Liberals do poorly and the Greens manage to finish in second, their deficiencies in the North mean that the ALP will most likely get over 50% of the primary vote anyway. Also, the consistently growing DLP vote – especially in the seat’s North, would flow strongly to the ALP in a TPP contest with the Greens. The first part would be about a one-in-three possibility, but in the present climate, the second would be closer to 1-in-10.
Booth Information
Because the Coalition generally achieves its lowest Victorian primary vote in Batman, the seat remains probably the Greens’ second best chance of victory. However, this would probably require a doubling of their primary vote in the northern areas of the seat. At present, their biggest hope would be for a kind redistribution that could connect the southern suburbs of Batman with the Green supporting areas of Melbourne or Wills. But under its current boundaries, the ALP’s hold on Batman will not be seriously threatened in the foreseeable future.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Greens could win Batman if…
- Their vote in the booths around Reservoir rise above 12%, preferably at the ALP’s expense AND
- Their TPP in the Northcote booths rises above 50% AND
- Their primary vote rises above 23% in the Preston booths AND rises above the Coalition’s.
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