Blog CemeteryBallarat
August 10th 2007 08:29
In recent years Ballarat has been a key marginal seat in Victorian federal politics, while generally providing small majorities to the government of the day. However in the past two federal elections it has bucked the statewide trend of marginal Victorian seats to swing towards the Government, and has improved for the ALP against its state average TPP by 8.5% since 1998.
Detailed Result History
The 2004 federal election saw the ALP withstand the large statewide swing against them to hold Ballarat, albeit by a slightly smaller margin of 2.23%. Only the booths of Yandoit and Trentham changed hands in 2004, with both booths moving to the ALP for the first time in a House election since 1993, as the seat continued to be a marginal seat with a large number of non-marginal booths. The Coalition gained over 70% of the TPP vote at Ascot (81.76%) and Clarkes Hill (72.05%), with the ALP's best results at Drummond (72.03%) and Wendouree West (70.41%).
The ALP maintained their dominance of the big booths within the seat, winning 20 of the 26 to take over 1000 votes and holding the tightest booths at Bacchus Marsh (50.33% TPP), Wendouree North (51.12%) Haddon (51.50%) and Wendouree East (52.15%). This allowed them to absorb large swings at Darley (5.97% swing) and Sebastopol (4.16%) and hang on to three-quarters of their margin in an election where the statewide swing would have reduced King's margin to 0.01%. Ballarat was one of only three seats where the Greens primary vote fell, and provided the DLP with their highest primary vote out of the two seats they contested. The Greens' best booths were at Daylesford (23.06%), Hepburn Springs (19.54%) and Glenlyon (18.86%), with nine booths in total polling over 10% for the Greens.
Booth Information
On present boundaries Catherine King’s victory for Labor in 2001 has been the only change between the parties at either of the two most recent House of Representative Elections since 1998, while the ALP’s comparatively strong performance in 2004 has seen the ALP’s TPP in the seat rise to 16th in the state, making it only their fourth most marginal Victorian seat.
What makes the swing to the ALP peculiar for a swing that has been counter the state and national averages is that it has been almost uniform across the large seat. Ballarat is far from a homogeneous seat, taking in Ballarat itself, the growing suburban areas stretching along the Western Freeway east to Bacchus Marsh, as well as a number of country towns that include Clunes, Creswick and Daylesford. But with the exception a number of the booths in the east of the seat, the seat has moved consistently towards the ALP in the House.
In Ballarat itself only one booth has swung towards the Liberals in the House since 1998, while the large swing to the ALP in the booth’s northern areas has meant that the total non-Ballarat and Ballarat swings have been of a similar magnitude. And while the areas closest to suburban Melbourne in the seats east around Bacchus Marsh have swung to the Coalition, this has been to a far smaller magnitude than other growing areas on Melbourne’s suburban fringe, with only two small booths in the whole seat moving to the Coalition by more than the 4.75% average statewide swing since 1998.
Booth Information
Interestingly, projected TPP results from the Senate have given the opposite result, with a swing to the Coalition which would have seen them take the seat from the ALP in 2001 and hold it – albeit marginally - in 2004. Here the ALP’s statewide ranking has dropped to the state median position of 19th, although the vote share did push back above the state average in 2004. Once again this has been spread across the seat with a majority of booths providing the Coalition with a 2-4% vote in the Senate over the House and many booths providing the Coalition with a higher primary vote in the Senate than the House. The trend does appear to be marginally stronger in Ballarat itself, and weakest in Bacchus Marsh, which suggests that King may have a strong personal vote which may not spread as strongly to the more suburban Bacchus Marsh.
The Ballarat area was one of the more pivotal area in the 1999 state election, swinging strongly behind ex-Ballarat resident Steve Bracks in the ALP’s surprise victory. Since then the area has stayed firmly in the ALP camp without providing swings as strongly as in many suburban areas. The strongest areas for the Bracks government have been in Bacchus Marsh and in the small booths south of Ballarat, which are among federal Labor’s weakest. In contrast, the northern towns of Clunes, Daylesford and Hepburn Springs are some of federal Labor’s strongers, and are also among the few booths in the seat which polled stronger in absolute terms for Federal Labor than State Labor.
Booth Information
While recent House results indicate that the ALP should hold Ballarat comfortably if they achieve any reasonable swing, the peculiarity of the swing compared with state and Senate results do advise caution. If King has gained a strong personal loyalty this will be the expected result, but the Senate result shows that a Liberal majority was still a distinct majority. I would expect the ALP to hold the seat merely because that’s the most likely outcome in the current federal climate, but any result from a large ALP victory to a small Liberal victory would both look possible and would not necessarily be a sign of a greater trend.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR…
- A swing through a few of the larger booths – Ballarat tends to vote reasonably homogeneously (with the exception of Bacchus Marsh)
- A Liberal win in Bacchus Marsh – the only part of the seat really ‘connected’ to other Melbourne voters. This could indicate a swing across other outer-suburban swing to the Liberals
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