Blog CemeteryAston
August 10th 2007 03:02
Booth Information
Situated in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne at the foothills of the Dandenongs, Aston takes in a number of affluent Melbourne suburbs and has shifted dramatically towards the Coalition in recent years. The seat swung by over 7% to the Liberal Party in the 2004 federal election to become the Coalition’s safest seat in Melbourne, a far cry from their near defeat in a 2001 by-election and a performance which epitomised the strength of the federal Liberal Party in Melbourne’s middle and outer suburbs.
Detailed Result History
The Coalition received over 60% in each of the four major areas of Aston in the 2004 federal election, and won every booth contested. The Southern area of the seat around Rowville was the strongest for the Coalition with over 65% of the TPP vote, peaking in the semi rural booth at Lysterfield with 74.04% 2PP. The ALP polled over 40% TPP in a handful of booths scattered across the North of the seat, peaking at Parkmore (44.04%) and Bayswater (42.95%), but did not come close to carrying a booth. Aston proved to be the Green’s third-worst Melbourne seat in 2004, with a primary vote under 5% that peaked generally in the North-West of the seat (6.68%) and specifically at the small Vermont booth (8.66%). The Family First party received above their state average in Aston, peaking at Bayswater (3.87%), but only defeating the Greens at the small Lysterfield and Flamingo booths. The seat historically ranked among the top 10 in Victoria for the Democrats.
Booth Information
While each area of the seat has swung to the Coalition, the trend has been strongest the further east and then south you travel through the seat. The area around Vermont and Forest Hill in the seat’s north-west have provided the one booth in the seat in which the ALP gained between 1993 and 2004, and as a whole swung by less than three percent between those five federal elections. But the further the booth is from the city, the stronger the swing in the seat has been; the North-West area of the seat around Wantirna swinging by just over 10%, the central area around Ferntree Gully – which has been the one area of ALP strength in 1993 – swinging by 13.5%, and the area around Rowville in the seats south swinging by almost 14.5%.
Booth Information
This has been doubly harmful for the ALP because this area of the seat has been the area where most of the population growth in the seat has occurred. While the booths around Rowville and Lysterfield provided almost 9000 more voters in 2004 than 1993, just over 1200 of these went to the ALP on TPP with the rest providing the Liberals with a huge boost to their TPP figure. The upshot of this has been that each major area of the seat is now solidly Liberal, and that the traditional stronghold of the Liberals around Vermont has now become the area where their vote has been the weakest, although it was still over 60% in 2004.
The most significant component of the swing has occurred in the last two federal elections. After the Coalition squeezed to victory in a 2001 by-election widely considered a key turning point for a then struggling Coalition Government, the Liberals have built their lead to over 6% at that year’s federal election and to over 13% in 2004. Much of the Coalition biggest gains have been in the eight booths they lost in the 1998 federal elections, a trend which is largely responsible for their clear clean sweep in 2004. This has fed into large gains focused most substantially on the centre of the seat, with the largest gains since 1998 being 12% in Knoxfield, and 11% in Ferntree Gully.
Booth Information
But almost as noticeable is that the gains have been significant across the seat, with all but a handful of booths moving by over 5%. Whether this swing has been temporary or a more permanent move to the federal Coalition does make Aston a little more interesting than the seemingly insurmountable margin facing the ALP would suggest.
The Coalition has also polled above the state average in Aston at the state level. It followed the statewide trend in 2002, dropping from almost 10% over the state average for the Coalition in TPP terms in 1999 to just over 6% in that election in a result which would have provided victory for the ALP, with Rowville dropping by 14% and all four major areas of the seat voting ALP majorities while swinging by over 9%.
But on the back of a stronger performance by the Liberals in last years state election the seat quickly swung back to the coalition, with the Liberals gaining two percent above a greatly improved state average to comfortably provide the Coalition with a majority, although it did stay outside the top ten at state level. Four of the five state seats at least partially within Aston’s borders swung considerably to the Coalition, with two of their six gains occurring in Ferntree Gully and Bayswater.
Booth Information
The state figures indicate that there is an element of incumbent support in Aston, with it at its strongest in the outer suburbs of Rowville. However this does not fully explain the swing to the Coalition at recent federal elections – the seat was still around 8% above the state average in 2006 and the state swing was largely uniform across the state, taking in both the older suburbs closer to the city and the growing area of Rowville. Vermont has become the closest area in the seat at both federal and state level, indicating that the large swings in state elections in outer Melbourne which could point to large swings back to a resurgent ALP may be limited in their effect here. Aston is unlikely to hang on to its position as safest Liberal seat in Melbourne, and figures such as 63% TPP and 12% above the state average are unlikely to be repeated. But it looks a safe Liberal seat in all but the biggest ALP landslide victory.
What to Watch for
The ALP could win Aston if…
- They win three of Rowville’s six booths (best result 37.6% in 2004)
- They win two of Ferntree Gully’s three booths (best result 40.48% in 2004, but won two of three in 1998)
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