Blog CemeteryAdelaide
October 28th 2007 04:46
Booth Statistics
A key marginal in each of the last five elections, Adelaide was one of just four seats to fall to the ALP in the 2004 federal election. While the seat contains a number of areas which distinct voting patterns, the ALP have increased their vote at each election since 1996 and in the present electoral climate it is generally considered safer than its margin of 1.33% would suggest.
Detailed Results
ALP candidate Kate Ellis defied a slight statewide swing to the Coalition to comfortably achieve the margin of 0.59% necessary to defeat Liberal MP Trish Worth in 2004. Ellis received a significant swing across most of the seat’s Southern and Central booths, peaking at 9.55% at Adelaide Hospital, as well as swings of over 6% at Wayville, Hindmarsh, Norwood West, Tusmore and Kent Town. This allowed Ellis enough of a buffer to withstand a swing of over 2% in the Northern booths which had been traditionally a strong ALP area. This swing was strongest at Kilburn (6.19%) and Croydon Park West (4.18%), although it didn’t deliver any more booths to the Coalition; in total the ALP carried seven extra booths (of a total of 59) than in 2001. The ALP’s strongest booths were in the seat’s West at Hindmarsh (71.43%), Mile End (69.05%), with a total of thirteen booths won with over 60% of the TPP vote. In total the Liberals won 18 of the booths contested, with their vote highest at Hyde Park (67.66%) and Walkerville (36.89%). Adelaide was the Greens best SA seat, with their vote above 10% at twelve booths and peaking at the Adelaide booth (14.70%), while the seat was Family First’s worst in SA, with the party managing to match their state average at only one booth.
Booth Statistics
Politically, Adelaide’s defining characteristic is the large number of areas with distinct voting patterns. Both major parties have strongholds in the seat (although, as divided here, both parties win booths in each of the six areas discussed), with each gaining a majority in three of the six sections and the size of the majorities determining which party wins the seat as a whole. However the continuity of each section masks significant transformations that have occurred in many of the sections.
Booth Statistics
The ALP’s strongest area of support has traditionally been in the Western booths around Croydon and Prospect, and in the Northern booths around Enfield and Northfield. Unlike many strong ALP areas, the Western booths has moved further to the ALP at recent House elections and provided Ellis with a majority of over 3,000 votes in 2004. However the Northern area has been the poorest for the federal ALP, swinging by over 3.5% since the 1998 federal election and reducing the ALP’s vote to under 8% above the state average in 2004.
Booth Statistics
However this area has maintained strong support for the ALP at state level, with the area as a whole giving the ALP almost 6,000 more votes at the 2005 state election. If the ALP are able to replicate this support to even a small extent their hold on Adelaide will be stronger than it is at present. The ALP also have a strong hold on the area around Central Adelaide, with this being consolidated further by a strong swing at the 2004 election that pushed the ALP’s TPP there above 11% over the state average just four elections after it was below 5% above. This swing was followed by a swing larger than the sizeable statewide change in the 2005 state election.
Booth Statistics
The areas of Coalition support are smaller, give the Coalition a smaller majority than the ALP gains from their strongholds, and have all swung to the ALP. The areas near the Torrens River in the seat’s North-East have remained the Coalition’s strongest area but have also sustained a swing of 10% at state level since 1996, which included a swing of 4.68% in 2004. In the last two elections the Coalition’s TPP in the area has fallen from 9.31% above the state average to 1.97%, and while their vote is stronger at the state level there it is just 6% over the state average.
Booth Statistics
The Southern booths have swung to the ALP by 7.6% since 1996, with the ALP winning 5 of 12 booths in 2004 after winning just one in 1996. This area is now very marginal at the federal level and has seen the ALP gain a solid majority at state level. The Eastern booths have swung behind Ellis in 2004 by over 4% after providing stable if not massive majorities for the Liberals at previous polls. However this is the one shining light in the seat at the state level, with the Coalition’s ability to limit their losses to below 4% (against a statewide average of over 7%) suggesting that there is a solidly loyal Coalition support in this part of the seat.
Booth Statistics
The key in Adelaide will be whether any of the large movements in the 2004 election – to the Coalition in the North and to the ALP in the rest of the seat – are repeated, maintained or reversed. While on the whole the seat has been moving towards the ALP in recent elections and looks to be safe, the large number of different regions suggests that there may be more to this seat than would appear at first glance.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Coalition could win Adelaide if…
- They gain a swing in the Northern booths – the Coalition would at least need to maintain their strong support, and win Enfield South (ALP TPP 50.96% in 2004)
- They reverse the swing in the Southern and Eastern booths – would want to win back Black Forest (ALP TPP 50.30% in 2004) and one of the Norwood booths (53.82% and 52.72%)
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